{"title":"Urban green space during the Coronavirus disease pandemic with regard to the socioeconomic characteristics","authors":"R. Setiowati, R. Koestoer, K. Mizuno, H. Hasibuan","doi":"10.22035/gjesm.2023.03.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22035/gjesm.2023.03.15","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The spread of Coronavirus disease limited the activities of humans in the globe in 2020 with Jakarta reported to have also struggled with the virus. The pandemic stopped humans from visiting public amenities such as urban green spaces which are one of the key components of sustainable and livable cities and have the ability to reduce the negative impact on mental health. However, there are limited studies on the behaviors and perceptions of humans toward the usage of urban green spaces during the pandemic. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the changes in the behaviors, perceptions, and visitation of residents towards the urban green space during the pandemic based on the socioeconomic aspects as well as the access and proximity to the parks and urban forests. METHODS: A questionnaire was distributed through an online survey on social media for approximately two months, from March to April 2021, and the last data recorded showed there were 1,660 respondents. The attention was on their perceptions and visitation to the urban green spaces spread across administrative cities in Jakarta, representing 42 districts and 239 sub-districts. Data obtained were analyzed empirically using the partial least square structural equation approach and SmartPLS 3.0 software to determine the relationship between the respondents’ characteristics and proximity to urban green space visitation. FINDINGS: The results showed that almost half of the respondents perceived changes in the urban green spaces and the majority believed the spaces were more useful during the pandemic. It was also discovered that the socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents including age, education level, occupational status, and average monthly income differed statistically significantly from the criteria associated with the visitation to urban green spaces during the pandemic. The findings indicated that education was substantially associated with the decision to exercise and engage in outdoor recreation in urban green spaces. Meanwhile, not all houses close to the parks and urban forests have a statistically significant impact on their usage and this is the explanation for the non-correlation and non-causation. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the perception of urban green space by the people changed during the pandemic but its usage was reduced due to the closures and restriction policies implemented. It was also discovered that socioeconomic characteristics have a significant influence on visitation but not all accessibility factors were significantly affected and this is different from the findings of previous studies. Moreover, this study discussed and shared empirical evidence that depicts urban green space as a resilient urban infrastructure during the pandemic. This means it is necessary to promote sustainable urban planning through the development of urban green spaces to manage the medium and long-term crises.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68033079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Environmental effect of the Coronavirus-19 determinants and lockdown on carbon emissions","authors":"R. Parvin, F. Johora, M. Alim","doi":"10.22034/gjesm.2023.01.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2023.01.07","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus-19 has affected carbon emissions, which was declared as a pandemic by World Health Organization. Unprecedented environmental effects are being caused by Bangladesh's strict lockdown policies, which were implemented to stop the spread of Coronavirus-19. However, it is still unclear how the temporary halting and restart of industrial and commercial activities will affect the environment. In this study, it has been identified how Coronavirus-19 determinants like lockdown, daily confirmed cases, and daily confirmed deaths affect greenhouse gases. METHODS: From March 18, 2020 to February 4, 2022 the data series is used for Bangladesh. To ensure that the data series were stationary, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests were utilized. Johansen co-integration test was utilized to determine co-integration among variables. The Granger causality test was utilized to identify directional causes and effects between Coronavirus-19 determinants and carbon emissions and the Vector Error Correction Model was employed to determine short-run and long run connections. FINDINGS: The study finds a bidirectional relationship between lockdown, carbon emissions and daily confirmed deaths, while a unidirectional association exists among Coronavirus-19 confirmed cases according to the Vector Error Correction Model. The Granger causality test also established the relationship between variables, except for daily confirmed cases. The pandemic's onset and subsequent lockdown resulted in decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The short-run link of carbon dioxide emissions with newly confirmed cases was corroborated by the directional relationship of variables, whereas there was a long-term and short-term association between confirmed deaths and lockdown. CONCLUSION: The reduction in carbon emissions during the pandemic will not be long-lasting because it is anticipated that global economic activity will gradually return to the preCoronavirus-19 state. The directional and relational nature of lockdown offers the potential to connect carbon dioxide emissions to regular lives. During a lockdown, there is a connection between the atmosphere's changes and how natural organisms behave. Importantly, there is a room for investigation into how communities of organisms and the atmosphere would function without humans. The essential point is to stress that during the lockdown, the ecosystem is self-healing. Environmental activists and business people will find this study useful in developing future sustainable improvement strategies.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91187760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Takarina, A. I. S. Purwiyanto, A. A. Rasud, A. Arifin, Y. Suteja
{"title":"Microplastic abundance and distribution in surface water and sediment collected from the coastal area","authors":"N. Takarina, A. I. S. Purwiyanto, A. A. Rasud, A. Arifin, Y. Suteja","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.02.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.02.03","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid development has increased the microplastics discharges into marine environments, including coastal waters at Jakarta Bay, Indonesia. This study is proposed to assess microplastics abundance and distribution in surface water and sediment from coastal water at Jakarta Bay.METHODS: The samples were collected from 12 locations representing Ancol, Muara Baru, and Muara Angke - Muara Karang. Samples of water and sediment were extracted to obtain the microplastics. The microplastics were identified based on their morphology (shape) and numbered for their abundance. The polymer of microplastics was determined using Raman Spectrophotometer.FINDINGS: The results showed that microplastics were successfully identified and counted in water and sediment samples at all collection points. The number of microplastics was 1532 particles in the water sample and 1419 particles in the sediment sample. The shape of microplastics observed in the water and sediment samples were fibers, films, fragments, and pellets. Among those, fiber and film were the most dominant microplastic detected both in surface water and sediment in all locations. Three polymers, namely polyethylene, polypropylene, and polystyrene, were detected in the microplastic samples. These findings prove that microplastics with their various types are capable contaminate the aquatic environment.CONCLUSION: The most common microplastics shapes in sediment were fiber (55.7%) > film (31.1%) > fragment (9.9%) > pellet (3.2%) and for the surface water were film (53.5%) > fiber (33.9%) > fragment (7.8%) > pellet (4.7%). The abundance of microplastics in the sediment (166.8 particles/kg, 95%CI: 148.0-185.0) was significantly higher (p < 0.05) than in surface water (70.9 particles/L, 95%CI: 55.6-86.2). The abundance of microplastics was significantly different among locations (p < 0.05, F = 2.115), with microplastics in sediments were higher in Ancol, and Muara Angke - Muara Karang have the highest microplastics in surface water. These results can provide valuable information on which parts of the Jakarta Bay areas should be prioritized first regarding microplastics management.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"183-196"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48572476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carbon footprint and cost analysis of a bicycle lane in a municipality","authors":"J. Prasara-A, A. Bridhikitti","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.02.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.02.04","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cycling has been widely promoted as an alternative mode of transport to help the reduction of environmental impact and improve users' health. Promoting cycling will help enhance the \"Green City\" initiative in Thailand. While several studies have addressed social issues of cyclists, the environmental impacts and economic viability of cycling infrastructure are yet unknown. Quantifying its environmental impact and the costing aspect are essential to prove that cycling would positively affect a city. This study compares the expected environmental and economic impacts before and after constructing a bicycle lane in Mahasarakham, Thailand.METHODS: This study uses life cycle assessment and life cycle costing to assess a bicycle lane's environmental and economic viability. Life cycle assessment and life cycle costing are tools used to analyze environmental impact and cost during the life cycle of a product or service. The scope of this study covers the processing of raw material acquisition, transportation, construction, use, and disposal. The functional unit set for this study is the use of a bicycle lane for one year. The environmental impact examined is greenhouse gas emissions along the product's life cycle (the so-called \"carbon footprint\").FINDING: According to the results, approximately 0.2 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent of carbon footprint could have been reduced in 2020 had a bicycle lane been installed. The use phase plays the leading role in reducing carbon footprint. The reduction in environmental impacts is due to reduced fuel consumption by cars and motorcycles when bicycles are used. Even though a low rate (26%) of road users, who participated in this research, were willing to ride bikes had a bicycle lane been provided, a considerable amount of environmental impact could still have been reduced.CONCLUSION: The carbon footprint expected to be reduced in a year is valued at about 4.7 million baht of carbon credit. In comparison, the life cycle cost of bicycle lanes for one year is approximately 3.7 million baht. Furthermore, it is anticipated that had a bicycle lane been installed since 2015, the city would have reduced overall carbon footprint emissions by more than 1.15 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020. Therefore, the results of environmental impact and cost assessment from this study are helpful for urban environmental management.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"197-208"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47263514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimization of solid waste collection system in a tourism destination","authors":"C. L. Dinh, M. Asari, B. N. P. S. T. P. Duy","doi":"10.22034/gjesm.2022.03.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2022.03.09","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Hoi An City was one of the most famous tourist destinations in the world. This led to a rapid increase in solid waste generation, leading to problems and challenges in solid waste collection and management. This problem is also being experienced by other developing countries of the world. Despite the existence of established waste management strategies, targets set for the collection of recyclable waste have not been met. This study introduces solutions to the problems and challenges faced by the waste management sector in Hoi An city and other developing countries. This study aimed to i) optimize the map of the recovery recycling stations in an urban community, ii) develop an effective solid waste collection system, and iii) provide management tools to enhance recycling activities, contributing to improving waste management in Hoi An city. METHODS: The RRSs were integrated into a solid waste collection system in the urban communities of Hoi An City, were conducted through location-allocation analysis in a geographic information system environment. Routing problems of carts were solved in the combination of the rescheduling of existing solid waste collection activities in the study site. The economic evaluation by scenarios was also calculated for ten years to assess the feasibility of scenarios. FINDINGS: Thirty-four locations were identified and optimized to accommodate the RRSs and new collection routes. The distances travelled and working time increased in proportion to the increase in waste separation effectiveness. Waste separation is vital to the effectiveness of the new solid waste collection system. The optimal solid waste practice model (in scenarios 2 and 4) revealed the positive results in improving the solid waste collection system, operating economy, and local adaptation. CONCLUSION: This study redesigned the solid waste collection system to solve the current problems in the tourism destination of Hoi An city. This study contributed as a case study of integrating urban recovery recycling stations into optimizing a solid waste collection system in a tourism destination. Introducing strict waste separation was the pivotal first step in systematically upgrading the solid waste collection system in Hoi An City. This study's findings provide government officials and service providers with methods that can be applied to solve the problems faced by Hoi An city's existing solid waste collection and management system.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67994949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
O. Gryshchenko, V. Babenko, O. Bilovodska, T. Voronkova, I. Ponomarenko, Z. Shatskaya
{"title":"Green tourism business as marketing perspective in environmental management","authors":"O. Gryshchenko, V. Babenko, O. Bilovodska, T. Voronkova, I. Ponomarenko, Z. Shatskaya","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.09","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Environmental guidelines and principles of sustainable development are becoming increasingly popular and are a priority for most business areas. One of the widely developing eco-destinations is green tourism, which is gaining a profitable and priority status, especially for lower middle-income countries. The purpose of the article is to determine the strategic marketing support for the development of green tourism on the example of Ukraine and its regions based on an approach to its assessment in terms of environmental and tourism competitiveness.METHODS The authors used general scientific and specific methods comparative, critical and system analysis, synthesis to search and group indicators of ecological and tourism competitiveness. Distance method, ranking, economic and statistical analysis were implemented to analyze the green tourism potential in each region in Ukraine and reveal the leaders and outsiders among them. For the accumulation, processing, visualization of data and forming the matrix of green tourism, based on data for 2015-2019, potential Microsoft Excel, Figma and Canva tools, Harrington scale were applied.FINDINGS The approach to estimate the green tourism potential based on the ecological and tourism regional competitiveness according to the author’s list of 37 indicators were proposed, the matrixes of green tourism potential of Ukrainian regions in 2019 and 2020 were developed, and strategic marketing support according to sustainable development for green tourism business were proposed. Strategic marketing support of green tourism development in Ukrainian regions was defined based on ecological and marketing strategies.CONCLUSION The author's approach makes it possible to systematically assess the potential of green tourism using up-to-date statistical information. According to the tourism and environmental competitiveness rating, the regions with the most significant and worst potential were found. The positive dynamics of the development of green tourism in 2019-2020 were revealed. The results are the basis for providing comprehensive environmental and marketing support to ensure sustainable development and gain additional competitive advantages in the green tourism business.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"117-132"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67995074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Environmental awareness factor of used cell phones","authors":"N. Wibowo, R. Nurcahyo, D. Gabriel","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.07","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Electronic equipment production is one of the major industrial sectors in Indonesia, as it also contributes to Indonesia’s export commodities, which increase because of rapid technological developments. Cell phones, which have considerable potential to become electronic waste, recorded the enormous escalation in electronic production. This research aimed to increase community involvement and the collection of used cell phones from households in e-waste management in Indonesia. A survey was conducted to explore a household’s environmental awareness and willingness to recycle based on sociodemographics, environmental hazard awareness, and used cell phone usage in Jabodetabek, Indonesia.METHODS: In this research, a peer questionnaire was used and organized into five sections: The first section contained the sociodemographic details of the respondents. The second section comprised multiple concerns that relate to recycling and environmental awareness. The third section contained the family cell phone information. The fourth section determined the cell phone consumer behavior. The fifth section consisted of willingness to recycle. Statistical correlations between variables were assessed, and the chi-square independence test was used to evaluate the statistical correlations. FINDINGS: Mostly the households will replace their used cell phone if there is damage (66.84%) and keep the used cell phone at home (59.5%), thus becoming an obstacle in applying the appropriate recycling system and a circular economy. The average cell phone ownership in Jabodetabek is 1.28 units, and the average cell phone life span of people in Jabodetabek is 2.6 years. The Environmental Hazard Awareness variable has significant differences with occupation and income level (p-value = 0.028 and 0.046), Used Cellphone Usage variable has significant differences with the income level variable (p-value = 0.024). The others, a statistically significant difference between sociodemographic variable and Willingness to Recycle was observed; p-value = 0.003 for age and p-value = 0.034 for occupation. CONCLUSION: This paper showed that Environmental Hazard Awareness and Willingness to Recycle have an important role in increasing the collection of used cell phones from households. . This study assessed community-based factors located in urban areas. The factors could encourage their participation in collection activities, obtain information on the preferred collection channels of residents, and provide a perspective for managing cell phones through an analysis of the improvements and influences of Indonesia’s current e-waste recycling program. Therefore, to develop a new strategy, the findings of this study can provide insights into the e-waste problem and citizen’s awareness of e-waste management.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"87-100"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67994925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Fadhiliani, M. Ikhwan, M. Ramli, S. Rizal, M. Syafwan
{"title":"Distribution of energy in propagation for ocean extreme wave generation in hydrodynamics laboratory","authors":"D. Fadhiliani, M. Ikhwan, M. Ramli, S. Rizal, M. Syafwan","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The hydrodynamic uncertainty of the ocean is the reason for testing marine structures as an initial consideration. This uncertainty has an impact on the natural structure of the topography as well as marine habitats. In the hydrodynamics laboratory, ships and offshore structures are tested using mathematical models as input to the wave marker. For large wavenumbers, Benjamin Bona Mahony's equation has a stable direction and position in the wave tank. During their propagation, the generated waves exhibit modulation instability and phase singularity phenomena. These two factors refer to Benjamin Bona Mahony as a promising candidate for generating extreme waves in the laboratory. The aim of this research is to investigate the distribution of energy in each modulation frequency change. The Hamiltonian formula that describes the phenomenon of phase singularity is used to observe energy. This data is critical in determining the parameters used to generate extreme waves.METHODS: The envelope of the Benjamin Bona Mahony wave group can be used to study the Benjamin Bona Mahony wave. The Benjamin Bona Mahony wave group is known to evolve according to the Nonlinear Schrodinger equation. The Hamiltonian governs the dynamics of the phase amplitude and proves the Nonlinear Schrodinger equation's singularity for finite time. The Hamiltonian is derived from the appropriate Lagrangian for Nonlinear Schrodinger and then transformed into the Hamiltonian with the displaced phase-amplitude variable.FINDINGS: Potential energy is related to wave amplitude and kinetic energy is related to wave steepness in the study of surface water waves. When , the maximum wave amplitude and steepness are obtained. When , extreme waves cannot be formed due to steepness. This is due to the possibility of breaking waves into smaller waves on the shore. In terms of position, the energy curve is symmetrical.CONCLUSION: According to Hamiltonian's description of the energy distribution, the smaller the modulation frequency, the greater the potential and kinetic energy involved in wave propagation, and vice versa. While the wave's amplitude and steepness will be greatest for a low modulation frequency, and vice versa. The modulation frequency considered as an extreme wave generator is , because the resulting amplitude is quite high and the energy in the envelope is also quite large.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"17-26"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67994164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muhammad Izzuddin Rumaling, F. Chee, Haoqian Chang, C. Payus, S. Kong, J. Dayou, J. Sentian
{"title":"Forecasting particulate matter concentration using nonlinear autoregression with exogenous input model","authors":"Muhammad Izzuddin Rumaling, F. Chee, Haoqian Chang, C. Payus, S. Kong, J. Dayou, J. Sentian","doi":"10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.01.03","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Air quality in some developing countries is dominated by particulate matter, especially those with size 10 micrometers and smaller or PM10. They can be inhaled and sometimes can get deep into lungs; some may even get into bloodstream and cause serious health problems. Therefore, future PM10 concentration forecasting is important for early prevention and in urban development planning, which is crucial for developing cities. This paper presents the development of PM10 forecasting model using nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input model.METHODS To improve performance of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input model, principal component analysis is used prior to the model for variable selection. The first stage of principal component analysis involves Scree plot, which determines the number of principal components based on explained variance. This is then followed by selecting variables using a rotated component matrix, based on their strength of contribution towards variation of PM10 concentration. To test the model, PM10 data in Kota Kinabalu from 2003 – 2010 was used. Neural network models are developed using this data by varying number of input variables with the inclusion of temporal variables. The developed forecasting models are evaluated using data PM10 in the city from 2011 to 2012. Four performance indicators, namely root mean square error, mean absolute error, index of agreement and fractional bias are reported.FINDINGS Results from principal component analysis show that five variables including wind direction index, relative humidity, ambient temperature, concentration of nitrogen dioxide and concentration of ozone strongly contribute to the variation of PM10 concentration. By using these variables together with temporal variables as input in the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input models, the resultant model shows good forecasting performance, with root mean square error of 7.086±0.873 µg/m3. The selection of significant variables helps in reducing input variables inside the forecast model without degrading its forecast performance.CONCLUSION This model shows very promising performance in forecasting PM10 concentration in Kota Kinabalu as it requires fewer input variables and does not require variable transformation.","PeriodicalId":46495,"journal":{"name":"GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM","volume":"8 1","pages":"27-44"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67994209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}