Decision Analysis最新文献_第5页

Multipolar Security Cooperation Planning: A Multiobjective, Adversarial-Risk-Analysis Approach 多极安全合作规划:多目标、对抗性风险分析方法

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0458

William N. Caballero, Ethan Gharst, David L. Banks, J. Weir

{"title":"Multipolar Security Cooperation Planning: A Multiobjective, Adversarial-Risk-Analysis Approach","authors":"William N. Caballero, Ethan Gharst, David L. Banks, J. Weir","doi":"10.1287/deca.2022.0458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0458","url":null,"abstract":"In an increasingly competitive environment, defense organizations are met with more difficult decisions than in years past. This problem is especially apparent in security cooperation, that is, defense diplomacy, conducted by the United States. Both the United States and its competitors offer military assistance to third-party nations who, in turn, select an offer based on their own self-interest. Unfortunately, current security cooperation planning practices adopt an ad hoc approach to such problems. Therefore, we set forth herein a decision-analytic-planning framework by (1) provisioning a generic utility model for security cooperation planning applicable to myriad stakeholders and (2) developing a Bayesian solution that allows the stakeholder to select an action that maximizes their expected utility. This combination of value-focused thinking and adversarial risk analysis improves upon standard U.S. defense practices; it tractably encodes planning assumptions and more comprehensively considers the relevant uncertainties. The efficacy of this planning approach is illustrated on a notional U.S. Air Force case study in which a host nation must choose between security assistance from the United States or a competing nation.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"186 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76930736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimizing the First Response to Sepsis: An Electronic Health Record-Based Markov Decision Process Model 优化败血症的第一反应:基于电子健康记录的马尔可夫决策过程模型

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-07-22 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0455

Erik T. Rosenstrom, Sareh Meshkinfam, J. Ivy, Shadi Hassani Goodarzi, M. Capan, J. Huddleston, S. Romero-Brufau

{"title":"Optimizing the First Response to Sepsis: An Electronic Health Record-Based Markov Decision Process Model","authors":"Erik T. Rosenstrom, Sareh Meshkinfam, J. Ivy, Shadi Hassani Goodarzi, M. Capan, J. Huddleston, S. Romero-Brufau","doi":"10.1287/deca.2022.0455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0455","url":null,"abstract":"Sepsis is considered a medical emergency where delays in initial treatment are associated with increased morbidity and mortality, yet there is no gold standard for identifying sepsis onset and thus treatment timing. We leverage electronic health record (EHR) data with clinical expertise to develop a continuous-time Markov decision process (MDP) optimal stopping model that identifies the optimal first intervention action (anti-infective, fluid, or wait). To study the impact of initial treatment of patients at risk for developing sepsis, we define the delayed treatment population who received delayed treatment upon admission or during hospitalization and serves as an approximation of the natural history of sepsis. We apply the optimal first treatment policy to sample patient visits from the nondelayed treatment population. This analysis indicates the average risk of death could be reduced by approximately 2.2%, the average time until treatment could be reduced by 106 minutes, and the average severity of the treatment state could be reduced by 15.5% compared with the treatment they received in the hospital. We study the properties of the optimal policy to define an easily interpretable initial treatment heuristic that considers a patient’s organ dysfunction, location, and septic shock status. This generalizable framework can inform personalized treatment of patients at risk for sepsis.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80033102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Model Complexity and Accuracy: A COVID-19 Case Study 模型复杂性和准确性:COVID-19案例研究

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0457

Colin Small, J. Bickel

引用次数: 3

An Empirical Comparison of Rank-Based Surrogate Weights in Additive Multiattribute Decision Analysis 加性多属性决策分析中基于秩的代理权重的实证比较

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-06-17 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0456

R. C. Burk, Richard M. Nehring

引用次数: 1

Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions 支持早期药物开发决策的创新

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-04-07 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0452

Florian Methling, Steffen A. Borden, Deepak Veeraraghavan, Insa Sommer, J. Siebert, Rudiger von Nitzsch, Mark Seidler

{"title":"Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions","authors":"Florian Methling, Steffen A. Borden, Deepak Veeraraghavan, Insa Sommer, J. Siebert, Rudiger von Nitzsch, Mark Seidler","doi":"10.1287/deca.2022.0452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0452","url":null,"abstract":"Pharmaceutical companies have frequent portfolio reviews to monitor development progress and prioritize development assets. The earliest assets are drug candidates whose efficacy is unknown and whose effects on the human body have yet to be fully investigated. These assets are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in reaching the market and in being used in clinical practice. In addition, not all potential applications are foreseen and can often be very different. In the absence of satisfactory methods for making decisions on resource allocation among early development assets, decision makers focus almost exclusively on assessments of an asset’s probability of technical success. This study proposes a more holistic methodology to support early-stage pharmaceutical development decisions using value-focused thinking and multicriteria decision making. The methodology operates within the decision quality framework and provides a consistent evaluation of various early development assets across a diverse set of disease areas. This combination of concepts and methodologies has been implemented and proven valuable at Bayer Pharmaceuticals, which needed a new, more robust decision-making process for early development. Thus, this study discusses how to enable concrete trade-offs at the level of corporate objectives to align, communicate, and translate corporate strategy into portfolio strategy. In addition, this study presents learnings for decision analysts and decision makers in the pharmaceutical industry on how to develop a set of fundamental objectives, how to create scales to operationalize these objectives, and how to take steps to debias an organizational decision-making process.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76786109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Balanced Opioid Prescribing via a Clinical Trade-Off: Pain Relief vs. Adverse Effects of Discomfort, Dependence, and Tolerance/Hypersensitivity 通过临床权衡平衡阿片类药物处方:疼痛缓解与不良反应，不适，依赖，耐受性/过敏

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2021.0447

Abdullah Gökçınar, M. Çakanyıldırım, Theodore John Price, Meredith C. B. Adams

{"title":"Balanced Opioid Prescribing via a Clinical Trade-Off: Pain Relief vs. Adverse Effects of Discomfort, Dependence, and Tolerance/Hypersensitivity","authors":"Abdullah Gökçınar, M. Çakanyıldırım, Theodore John Price, Meredith C. B. Adams","doi":"10.1287/deca.2021.0447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2021.0447","url":null,"abstract":"In the backdrop of the opioid epidemic, opioid prescribing has distinct medical and social challenges. Overprescribing contributes to the ongoing opioid epidemic, whereas underprescribing yields inadequate pain relief. Moreover, opioids have serious adverse effects including tolerance and increased sensitivity to pain, paradoxically inducing more pain. Prescribing trade-offs are recognized but not modeled in the literature. We study the prescribing decisions for chronic, acute, and persistent pain types to minimize the cumulative pain that incorporates opioid adverse effects (discomfort and dependence) and the risk of tolerance or hypersensitivity (THS) developed with opioid use. After finding closed-form solutions for each pain type, we analytically investigate the sensitivity of acute pain prescriptions and examine policies on incorporation of THS, patient handover, and adaptive treatments. Our analyses show that the role of adverse effects in prescribing decisions is as critical as that of the pain level. Interestingly, we find that the optimal prescription duration is not necessarily increasing with the recovery time. We show that not incorporating THS or information curtailment at patient handovers leads to overprescribing that can be mitigated by adaptive treatments. Last, using real-life pain and opioid use data from two sources, we estimate THS parameters and discuss the proximity of our model to clinical practice. This paper has a pain management framework that leads to tractable models. These models can potentially support balanced opioid prescribing after their validation in a clinical setting. Then, they can be helpful to policy makers in assessment of prescription policies and of the controversy around over- and underprescribing.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74744210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Stay Home or Not? Modeling Individuals’ Decisions During the COVID-19 Pandemic 呆在家里还是不呆?COVID-19大流行期间个人决策建模

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2021.0437

Qifeng Wan, Xuan-hua Xu, Kyle Hunt, J. Zhuang

{"title":"Stay Home or Not? Modeling Individuals’ Decisions During the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Qifeng Wan, Xuan-hua Xu, Kyle Hunt, J. Zhuang","doi":"10.1287/deca.2021.0437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2021.0437","url":null,"abstract":"During the COVID-19 pandemic, staying home proved to be an effective way to mitigate the spread of the virus. Stay-at-home orders and guidelines were issued by governments across the globe and were followed by a large portion of the population in the early stages of the outbreak when there was a lack of COVID-specific medical knowledge. The decision of whether to stay home came with many trade-offs, such as risking personal exposure to the virus when leaving home or facing financial and mental health burdens when remaining home. In this research, we study how individuals make strategic decisions to balance these conflicting outcomes. We present a model to study individuals’ decision making based on decision and prospect theory, and we conduct sensitivity analysis to study the fluctuations in optimal strategies when there are changes made to the model’s parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to further study the performance of our model, and we compare our simulation results with real data that captures individuals’ stay-at-home decisions. Overall, this research models and analyzes the behaviors of individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic and can help support decision making regarding control measures and policy development when public health emergencies appear in the future.","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86902254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data. 从主观生存数据估计二阶概率信念。

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2013.0266

Péter Hudomiet, Robert J Willis

{"title":"Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.","authors":"Péter Hudomiet, Robert J Willis","doi":"10.1287/deca.2013.0266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2013.0266","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the modal response hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0%, 50%, or 100% to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0%, 50%, and 100% answers observed in many data sets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents' age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, whereas other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behavior are under weighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers, and women have less certain beliefs, and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too.</p>","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"10 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2013-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1287/deca.2013.0266","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"32011317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 35

From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams 从编辑器——决策随着时间的推移(爆炸报价或购买后悔)，在游戏设置(嵌入纳什讨价还价或对抗游戏)，并在影响图

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1287/DECA.1110.0229

L. R. Keller

引用次数: 3

Call for Papers---Special Issue of Decision Analysis on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk: Deadline: April 25, 2011 论文征集——《可靠性与风险博弈与决策的决策分析》特刊:截止日期:2011年4月25日

IF 1.9 4区管理学

Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.1287/DECA.1110.0200

L. R. Keller, R. Soyer, F. Ruggeri, Jason R. W. Merrick

{"title":"Call for Papers---Special Issue of Decision Analysis on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk: Deadline: April 25, 2011","authors":"L. R. Keller, R. Soyer, F. Ruggeri, Jason R. W. Merrick","doi":"10.1287/DECA.1110.0200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/DECA.1110.0200","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of the special issue is to introduce a new theme, the use of game theory and decision theory in reliability analysis and risk analysis. The special issue aims to bring together novel research from disciplines that have the potential to contribute to this theme, including (but not limited to) economics, engineering, finance, mathematics, medical sciences, military sciences, probability, and statistics. Papers must tackle a problem in risk or reliability using the tools of decision theory or game theory (or both). The issue will not only consider papers presented at the Second Symposium on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk, to be held at the Hotel Villa Carlotta, Belgirate (VB), Lake Maggiore, Italy, May 19–21, 2011 (http://www.mi.imati.cnr.it/conferences/gdrr11.html), but will also be open to the public for submission of papers relevant to the theme. The deadline for submission of papers is April 25, 2011. Papers limited to 12 double-spaced pages (including references and figures/tables) should be submitted at http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/deca and should follow the Decision Analysis author submission guidelines given at http://www.informs.org/Pubs/DA/ Submission-Guidelines. All submissions will go through the standard review process of Decision Analysis. Submitting authors should indicate their desire to be considered for the special issue in the cover letter to Editor-in-Chief L. Robin Keller, completed during the submission process. Technical questions about submissions may be directed to Managing Editor Kelly M. Kophazi (kelly.kophazi@informs.org). For more information about the special issue, please contact:","PeriodicalId":46460,"journal":{"name":"Decision Analysis","volume":"12 1","pages":"82-82"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83379712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7