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Content: International Finance 23/3 内容:国际金融23/3
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12353
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引用次数: 0
Pandemics and firms: Drawing lessons from history 流行病和公司:从历史中吸取教训
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12392
Serhan Cevik, Fedor Miryugin
{"title":"Pandemics and firms: Drawing lessons from history","authors":"Serhan Cevik, Fedor Miryugin","doi":"10.1111/infi.12392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12392","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic caused an unprecedented and synchronized contraction in the global economy. To assess the likely evolution of firm performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically the impact of past pandemics using firm‐level data on more than 537,000 nonfinancial companies from 14 developing countries during the period 1998–2018. The analysis indicates that the prevalence of infectious diseases has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on nonfinancial corporate performance. This adverse impact is particularly pronounced on smaller and younger firms, compared to larger and more established corporations. We also find that a higher number of infectious‐disease cases in the population increases the probability of failure among nonfinancial firms, particularly for small and young firms. In the case of COVID‐19, the magnitude of these effects will be much greater, given the unprecedented scale of the outbreak and strict policy responses to contain its spread.","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"276 - 297"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12392","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46573506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market 识别石油价格冲击及其后果:原油市场预期的作用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-17 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12384
Takuji Fueki, Jouchi Nakajima, Shinsuke Ohyama, Yoichiro Tamanyu
{"title":"Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market","authors":"Takuji Fueki,&nbsp;Jouchi Nakajima,&nbsp;Shinsuke Ohyama,&nbsp;Yoichiro Tamanyu","doi":"10.1111/infi.12384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12384","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes a simple but comprehensive structural vector autoregressive model to examine the underlying factors of oil price dynamics. The distinguishing feature is to explicitly assess the role of expectations about future aggregate demand and oil supply in addition to the traditional realized aggregate demand and supply factors. Our empirical analysis shows that identified future demand and supply shocks are as important as the traditional realized demand and supply shocks in explaining historical oil price fluctuations. The empirical result indicates that the influence of oil price changes on global output varies according to the nature of each shock.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"53-76"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92187275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
Dirty money: Does the risk of infectious disease lower demand for cash? 脏钱:传染病的风险降低了对现金的需求吗?
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12383
Serhan Cevik
{"title":"Dirty money: Does the risk of infectious disease lower demand for cash?","authors":"Serhan Cevik","doi":"10.1111/infi.12383","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12383","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis like no other in modern times, and there is a growing apprehension about handling potentially contaminated cash. This paper is the first empirical attempt in the literature to investigate whether the risk of infectious diseases affects demand for physical cash. Since the intensity of cash use may influence the spread of infectious diseases, this paper utilizes two-stage least squares methodology with instrumental variable to address omitted variable bias and account for potential endogeneity. The empirical analysis indicates that the spread of infectious diseases lowers demand for physical cash, after controlling for macroeconomic, financial, and technological factors. This effect, withstanding several robustness checks, is economically and statistically significant. While the transactional constraints imposed by the coronavirus pandemic could become a catalyst for the use of digital technologies around the world, electronic payment methods may not be universally available in every country owing to financial and technological bottlenecks.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 3","pages":"460-471"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12383","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133831129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm-level evidence 企业债务积压和新兴经济体的投资:公司层面的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12382
Eduardo Borensztein, Lei Sandy Ye
{"title":"Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm-level evidence","authors":"Eduardo Borensztein,&nbsp;Lei Sandy Ye","doi":"10.1111/infi.12382","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates empirically the linkages between corporate debt overhang and investment activity at the firm level for a cross section of large-sized emerging market and developing economies. It analyzes the extent to which investment may be discouraged by high levels of debt that put at risk future profits, as well as firm dimensions that may sharpen the debt-investment link. Using balance sheet data from a broad set of emerging market and developing economy firms, the analysis suggests that corporate debt overhang imposes a sizable effect on investment at the firm level. This linkage is more pronounced for large firms and highly leveraged firms. The analysis also finds evidence of a nonlinear effect, in which debt overhang discourages investment more severely under high levels of indebtedness.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"18-39"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47758596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Covered bonds, loan growth and bank funding: The Swiss experience since 1932 担保债券、贷款增长和银行融资:瑞士自1932年以来的经验
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-10-13 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12380
Jonas Meuli, Thomas Nellen, Thomas Nitschka
{"title":"Covered bonds, loan growth and bank funding: The Swiss experience since 1932","authors":"Jonas Meuli,&nbsp;Thomas Nellen,&nbsp;Thomas Nitschka","doi":"10.1111/infi.12380","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12380","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The global financial crisis triggered discussions about what factors constitute a stable mortgage finance system. This paper contributes to these discussions by empirically analysing the Swiss mortgage finance system from a macroeconomic and banking sector balance sheet perspective. Our analysis is based on a novel and near-comprehensive data set of mortgage bond (Swiss Pfandbrief) issuances over the sample period from 1932 to 2014. The empirical results suggest that growth in the volume of the Swiss Pfandbrief does not induce more loan growth than expected given the state of the economy and that compared with other bank refinancing activities, the Swiss Pfandbrief provides a stabilising source of funding.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"77-94"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12380","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49226802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Phillips curve for the euro area 欧元区的菲利普斯曲线
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12381
Laurence Ball, Sandeep Mazumder
{"title":"A Phillips curve for the euro area","authors":"Laurence Ball,&nbsp;Sandeep Mazumder","doi":"10.1111/infi.12381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12381","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core inflation since the creation of the euro are well explained by three factors: expected inflation (as measured by surveys of forecasters); the output gap (as measured by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); and the pass-through of movements in headline inflation. Our specification resolves the puzzle of a “missing disinflation” after the Great Recession, and it diminishes the puzzle of a “missing inflation” during the recent economic recovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"2-17"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12381","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92293055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are firm characteristics priced differently between opposite short-sales regimes? 在不同的卖空制度中，公司特征的定价是否不同?
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12379
Min Bai
{"title":"Are firm characteristics priced differently between opposite short-sales regimes?","authors":"Min Bai","doi":"10.1111/infi.12379","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines how the short-sales constraints on stocks affect the pricing of firm characteristics—size, book-to-market ratio, liquidity, earnings-to-price ratio and dividend yield. Using a unique feature of Hong Kong regulations on short selling that, at each point of time, only a designated list of stocks can be sold short, we find that stocks not allowed to be sold short have higher adjusted returns, exhibit more prominent size effect and offer higher compensation for lagged illiquidity than stocks that can be sold short. The results also indicate that the presence of both short-sales constraints and opinion dispersion would cause contemporaneous returns to rise and future returns to fall by more than those caused by the opinion dispersion only. Practically, when financial analysts evaluate the stocks, or fund managers construct their trading strategies based on some financial anomalies, the shortability of the assets has to be a very important factor to be considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"95-118"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62705337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
International risk sharing in emerging economies 新兴经济体的国际风险分担
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12378
Carlos A. Yépez
{"title":"International risk sharing in emerging economies","authors":"Carlos A. Yépez","doi":"10.1111/infi.12378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the apparent lack of insurance against country-specific risk observed internationally. Using a sample of 21 emerging and 21 advanced economies over the period 1980–2014, I document new evidence from international co-movements of prices and quantities suggesting that risk sharing is worse in emerging economies than in advanced economies. I then extend a standard international business cycle model to assess the implications of the “cycle is the trend” hypothesis for international risk sharing. I show that shocks to trend productivity growth provide a compelling explanation for the distinct risk-sharing features of emerging market economies. The findings of this study are relevant for the conduct of stabilization policy, as it critically depends on the nature of the shocks that affect an economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 3","pages":"434-459"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137702514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Content: International Finance 23/2 内容:国际金融23/2
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2020-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12352
{"title":"Content: International Finance 23/2","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.12352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12352","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 2","pages":"195"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12352","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137524480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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