International Finance最新文献

{"title":"Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm-level evidence","authors":"Eduardo Borensztein,&nbsp;Lei Sandy Ye","doi":"10.1111/infi.12382","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates empirically the linkages between corporate debt overhang and investment activity at the firm level for a cross section of large-sized emerging market and developing economies. It analyzes the extent to which investment may be discouraged by high levels of debt that put at risk future profits, as well as firm dimensions that may sharpen the debt-investment link. Using balance sheet data from a broad set of emerging market and developing economy firms, the analysis suggests that corporate debt overhang imposes a sizable effect on investment at the firm level. This linkage is more pronounced for large firms and highly leveraged firms. The analysis also finds evidence of a nonlinear effect, in which debt overhang discourages investment more severely under high levels of indebtedness.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"18-39"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47758596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Covered bonds, loan growth and bank funding: The Swiss experience since 1932","authors":"Jonas Meuli,&nbsp;Thomas Nellen,&nbsp;Thomas Nitschka","doi":"10.1111/infi.12380","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12380","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The global financial crisis triggered discussions about what factors constitute a stable mortgage finance system. This paper contributes to these discussions by empirically analysing the Swiss mortgage finance system from a macroeconomic and banking sector balance sheet perspective. Our analysis is based on a novel and near-comprehensive data set of mortgage bond (Swiss Pfandbrief) issuances over the sample period from 1932 to 2014. The empirical results suggest that growth in the volume of the Swiss Pfandbrief does not induce more loan growth than expected given the state of the economy and that compared with other bank refinancing activities, the Swiss Pfandbrief provides a stabilising source of funding.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"77-94"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12380","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49226802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Phillips curve for the euro area","authors":"Laurence Ball,&nbsp;Sandeep Mazumder","doi":"10.1111/infi.12381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12381","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core inflation since the creation of the euro are well explained by three factors: expected inflation (as measured by surveys of forecasters); the output gap (as measured by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development); and the pass-through of movements in headline inflation. Our specification resolves the puzzle of a “missing disinflation” after the Great Recession, and it diminishes the puzzle of a “missing inflation” during the recent economic recovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"2-17"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12381","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92293055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are firm characteristics priced differently between opposite short-sales regimes?","authors":"Min Bai","doi":"10.1111/infi.12379","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines how the short-sales constraints on stocks affect the pricing of firm characteristics—size, book-to-market ratio, liquidity, earnings-to-price ratio and dividend yield. Using a unique feature of Hong Kong regulations on short selling that, at each point of time, only a designated list of stocks can be sold short, we find that stocks not allowed to be sold short have higher adjusted returns, exhibit more prominent size effect and offer higher compensation for lagged illiquidity than stocks that can be sold short. The results also indicate that the presence of both short-sales constraints and opinion dispersion would cause contemporaneous returns to rise and future returns to fall by more than those caused by the opinion dispersion only. Practically, when financial analysts evaluate the stocks, or fund managers construct their trading strategies based on some financial anomalies, the shortability of the assets has to be a very important factor to be considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"24 1","pages":"95-118"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62705337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International risk sharing in emerging economies","authors":"Carlos A. Yépez","doi":"10.1111/infi.12378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the apparent lack of insurance against country-specific risk observed internationally. Using a sample of 21 emerging and 21 advanced economies over the period 1980–2014, I document new evidence from international co-movements of prices and quantities suggesting that risk sharing is worse in emerging economies than in advanced economies. I then extend a standard international business cycle model to assess the implications of the “cycle is the trend” hypothesis for international risk sharing. I show that shocks to trend productivity growth provide a compelling explanation for the distinct risk-sharing features of emerging market economies. The findings of this study are relevant for the conduct of stabilization policy, as it critically depends on the nature of the shocks that affect an economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 3","pages":"434-459"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137702514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Content: International Finance 23/2","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.12352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12352","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 2","pages":"195"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12352","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137524480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contagion risk in african sovereign debt markets: A spatial econometrics approach","authors":"J. W. Muteba Mwamba,&nbsp;Mathias Manguzvane","doi":"10.1111/infi.12376","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12376","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study applies the spatial Durbin model to analyse the extent to which international trade and geographical proximity affect the stability of African sovereign-debt markets. Using sovereign credit default swap spreads, our empirical findings show that it is not only a country's macroeconomic fundamentals that influence its likelihood of default but also contagion from other countries. Trade linkages are found to be a strong transmission channel for contagion risk, especially among countries that trade heavily. A decomposition of the results demonstrates that at least 60% of the variation in credit default swap spread changes is attributed to spillovers through the trading channel. A change in the weighting matrix to geographical proximity confirms the baseline findings that an African country's debt market is susceptible to macroeconomic events in other countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 3","pages":"506-536"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12376","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45586330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fiscal procyclicality in emerging markets: The role of institutions and economic conditions","authors":"U. Michael Bergman,&nbsp;Michael Hutchison","doi":"10.1111/infi.12375","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12375","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Procyclicality of fiscal policy is a common feature in emerging markets, by contrast with high-income economies, and leads to greater business-cycle amplitudes. We investigate potential causes of fiscal procyclicality, including a host of economic and institutional variables of especial import in emerging markets. We employ dynamic panel methods in a large sample of countries to investigate what factors are associated with fiscal cyclicality. We find that fiscal procyclicality is mainly due to procyclical fluctuations in government investment expenditure. In addition, we find that procyclical fiscal policy is positively associated with government debt levels, terms-of-trade volatility, and costs of foreign borrowing, while negatively associated with better government efficiency. Only a weak association is found between International Monetary Fund program participation and fiscal procyclicality. Finally, we find that certain fiscal rules are associated with lower fiscal procyclicality and, in particular, balanced-budget rules may help mitigate the adverse cyclicality effects of high terms-of-trade volatility and government debt burdens in emerging markets.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 2","pages":"196-214"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12375","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44610657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The COVID-19 crisis: A Hamilton moment for the European Union?","authors":"Otmar Issing","doi":"10.1111/infi.12377","DOIUrl":"10.1111/infi.12377","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;According to Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European integration after World War II, Europe always needs a crisis to make progress in integration. The COVID-19 crisis seems to deliver a perfect case to go forward. The pandemic represents an exogenous shock for all EU member countries. But the impact is asymmetric. Countries with already high public debt before the crisis would run into great difficulties in financing the measures needed to stabilise their economies. Against this background, a number of politicians and academics have called for a “Hamilton moment” and proposed mutualising the new debt at the European level and providing the financial means to the countries most seriously hit by the pandemic.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 1790, upon a proposal by the Union's finance minister Alexander Hamilton, the debt of states accumulated during the War of Independence was assumed by the Union. Hamilton interpreted this act as “cement” for the Union. Should the EU follow this example and move in the direction of a fiscal union? This article tries to demonstrate that the historical comparison is not well founded, and the establishment of a fiscal union in Europe needs a change of the Treaty on the Union.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;European integration saw many ups and downs and always needed a crisis to make an important step forward. According to this perception, on the one hand, European integration is based on a grand political design. On the other hand, progress in political reality can only be achieved—and the manifold obstacles overcome—under the pressure of a crisis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In short, politics must use the opportunity, following the motto: never let a crisis go to waste. Since the start of (Western) European integration after the end of WWII, there has been no shortage of crises. The great financial crisis of 2008/2009 was only partly used to deepen integration—and mainly wasted. The turbulences caused by the current pandemic now offer an almost unique chance to do better.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For many observers—among them German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz—this crisis offers a “Hamilton moment”, referring to the situation after the American War of Independence. Alexander Hamilton, the first Finance Minister of the Union, proposed the assumption of the debt that states had accumulated to finance their participation in the war. Hamilton argued that the debt of the 13 states was not the consequence of permissive fiscal policy, but due to external circumstances—today, one would call it an exogenous shock—namely the war. The debt was the price of liberty (Hamilton, &lt;span&gt;1790&lt;/span&gt;). On 4 August 1790, the US Congress accepted Hamilton's proposal to assume, that is, nationalise, states’ debt. Negotiations ended in a compromise. In exchange for the bail-out, the authority to tax imports, the most important source of revenue, was transferred from the states to the federal government (Sargent, &lt;span&gt;2012&lt;/span&gt;). (The compromise also included the decision to make Washington the futur","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 2","pages":"340-347"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12377","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41645287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Content: International Finance 23/1","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.12351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12351","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"23 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/infi.12351","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137744203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}