African Journal of Economic and Management Studies最新文献

{"title":"Correlations of structural shocks, dynamic responses of output and inflation to commodities price shocks and monetary union in WAMZ","authors":"Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu, Daniel Sakyi","doi":"10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0129","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p>The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138543593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting stock market crashes on the African stock markets: evidence from log-periodic power law model","authors":"Sirine Ben Yaala, Jamel Eddine Henchiri","doi":"10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0113","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p>The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138540726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How optimal is Ghana's single-digit inflation targeting? An assessment of monetary policy effectiveness in Ghana","authors":"Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi, Eric Osei-Assibey","doi":"10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0119","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p>The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138540738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding generational differences for financial inclusion in Kenya","authors":"Lilian Korir, Dieu Hack-Polay","doi":"10.1108/ajems-09-2022-0391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-09-2022-0391","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p> The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect the five different generations and the key financial inclusion indicators of gender, education and location (rural–urban) in exacerbating disparities in financial inclusion in Kenya. This paper considers whether the five generational cohort groups in Kenya differ on the financial inclusion determinants and behaviour as predicted by common generational stereotypes.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p> The authors applied a multinomial logistic regression approach to nationally representative household survey data from Kenya to estimate the effect that key financial inclusion indicators have on belonging to one of the five generations: Z, Y, X, baby boomers and traditionalists.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p> The authors found significant links between all tested variables and financial inclusion. The authors found an access gap between Generations X and Y, with the latter being more prone to access and use financial services and products. These differences are compounded by gender and rurality. People in rural locations and women generally were found to have less access to financial services and products, thus causing significant exclusion of a large proportion of the population.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p> The research has important implications for governments, financial institutions and educational providers, notably on targeted policies and programmes that strategically aim to eliminate disparities and promote greater financial inclusion, denoting the value of such variables as generational differences and gender inclusivity.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p> This paper deepens the understanding of differences that can divide generations on financial inclusion.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138540727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Book review: How to succeed as an entrepreneur in Africa: a practical guide and cases","authors":"Nnamdi O. Madichie","doi":"10.1108/ajems-09-2023-579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-09-2023-579","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"3 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136229120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What happens after product rebranding: understanding the interrelational effect of brand attachment, brand distinctiveness and consumer attitudes on brand loyalty","authors":"Isaac Mensah, Yaw Brew","doi":"10.1108/ajems-06-2023-0216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-06-2023-0216","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Product rebranding is increasingly popular, but brand managers are sceptical about its implications on brand loyalty (BL). Given the limited empirical literature on the subject, this study examines the interrelational effect of brand attachment (BA), brand distinctiveness (BD) and consumer attitudes (CA) towards product rebranding on brand loyalty (BL). Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the quantitative survey design and used questionnaire to gather data from 349 consumers of rebranded water, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. This study integrates psychology theories into brand management research to propose and test a holistic model. Findings The study found a significant effect of BA on CA toward product rebranding, and CA toward product rebranding fully mediates the relationship between BA and BL. Furthermore, BD has a significant effect on BL, and further moderates the relationship between BA and BL. Originality/value This study offers a fresh theoretical foundation, conceptual clarity and understanding of how rebranding specific brand elements affect the attitudes and BL of consumers who are emotionally connected to a brand. This paper offers practical insights into the implication of product rebranding on CA, BD and BL. It reveals a holistic guidance to brand managers on how to use their unique knowledge about their consumers to create distinctive brands and emotional affection, passion and connections to their brands.","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foreign bank presence and inclusive growth in Africa: the moderating role of financial development","authors":"Khadijah Iddrisu, Joshua Yindenaba Abor, Thadious Kannyiri Banyen","doi":"10.1108/ajems-11-2022-0444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-11-2022-0444","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the nexus between foreign bank presence (FBP) and inclusive growth is being impacted by the financial development. Design/methodology/approach The study used a two-stage system generalized method of moment (GMM), using 28 African countries from the period 2000 to 2018. Findings The study found a positive effect of FBP on inclusive growth. While financial development magnifies the positive effect of FBP, inclusive growth nexus, it has a direct effect on inclusive growth. Practical implications For Africa to ascertain the positive effect of FBP on inclusive growth, financial system must be developed to reduce the cream-skim behavior of foreign banks. Originality/value This paper assess the extent to which developing economy's developed financial system form synergies with FBP to further enhance the inclusiveness of growth.","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"84 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135585253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana: a panel data analysis","authors":"Raymond K. Dziwornu, Eric B. Yiadom, Sampson B. Narteh-yoe","doi":"10.1108/ajems-12-2022-0504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-12-2022-0504","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The cost of agricultural loans is a major constraint to the growth of the agriculture sector. This paper examines agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana using panel data analysis. Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained from audited financial reports of 15 agricultural loan lending banks from 2010 to 2017. The study applies the random-effect model and the fixed-effect model in the analysis and uses the system generalized system method of moment to check the robustness of the results from the baseline models. Findings The study found that agricultural loan pricing by banks is significantly influenced by risk premium, cost of funds, loan impairment, agricultural growth rate and food inflation. Banks should leverage emerging technologies to de-risk agriculture loan pricing to allay the fear of default. Farmers should look for long-term and relatively cheaper funds to support agricultural loans. Increasing credit to the agricultural sector could increase output, thereby reducing food inflation uncertainty for competitive pricing of agricultural loans. Originality/value Agriculture employs about 52% of Ghana's labor force, contributing about 20% to GDP. But it is “under” financed. This study leads the way in unraveling the factors accounting for the high prices of agricultural loans in Ghana. This study further contributes to policy development toward increasing credit to the agricultural sector.","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135853109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-linearity in the Phillips curve: evidence from Nigeria","authors":"Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, Oluwayemisi Kadijat Adeleke, Akintoye Victor Adejumo","doi":"10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0418","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets. Findings The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate. Practical implications The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135200048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-business relations for entrepreneurial takeoff in Africa: institutional analysis","authors":"Farhad Hossain, Aminu Mamman, Emmanuel Yeboah-Assiamah, Christopher J. Rees","doi":"10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0402","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Reports and experiences suggest that several developing African economies are faced with entrepreneurial-impeding forces such as lengthy bureaucratic processes and poor regulatory space. The study examines a general trend in “doing business performance” among selected African countries and uses the case of Ghana to explore how particular indicators or forces affect the development and deployment of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) policies. Design/methodology/approach Comparative analysis of six African economies on their ease of doing business score. This is followed by a critical review of the literature to develop a six-point explanatory framework to explore the relative position of the six countries on the ease of doing business scores. Using Ghana as a critical case study, the authors deploy an in-depth case study analysis via in-depth interviews of relevant stakeholders to validate the information from secondary sources. Findings The study observes that the nature of leadership, socio-cultural imperatives, economic structure and policy and the role of domestic institutional players and international players have implications for the extent to which the state creates an enabling environment for SMEs and entrepreneurial activities. The role of supportive cultural software that will help drive SME and entrepreneurial growth has been established. The study contends that different aspects of national culture do have implications for the tendency for people to be business-minded or to have the ability to take risks. The demand and supply sides are crucial in promoting SME growth. Originality/value The study develops a framework that helps explore elements to help explain ease of doing business scores and the viability of SMEs in Africa. These elements were validated through qualitative interviews as well.","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135535812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}