Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy最新文献

{"title":"Short-Term Fiscal Imbalance Comparison In V4 Countries Using A Dynamic Conditional Correlation Approach","authors":"L. Mihóková, S. Martinková, R. Dráb","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I2.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I2.14","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The crisis periods have highlighted the interdependence between individual European economies in the area of economic and fiscal development. The common development tendencies raise the question whether the fiscal indebtedness and preferred fiscal policy of V4 countries can be considered as interdepending. Considering this assumption, a possibility for implementing a similar type of consolidation in selected clusters of countries could be proposed. Purpose of the article: The research is, from the empirical point of view, focused on the analysis and comparison of primary balance indicator, analysis and assessment of fiscal measures (in identified fiscal episodes) and analysis of fiscal development intercorrelations using the dynamic conditional correlation approach. Methods: The empirical assessment of the research objective is, from the methodological point of view, divided into five phases: (1) the calculation of primary deficit indicator, (2) the analysis, comparison and assessment of the fiscal development in the V4 countries based on the annual primary deficit during the selected period 1999–2016, (3) the seasonal adjustment of performing time series and non-stationarity testing, (4) the dynamic conditional correlation approach (DCC) application. Within the analysis, the traditional and specific methods were used (time series analysis, content analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation methods, DCC approach). Findings & Value added: The results of the research suggest that between V4 countries do exist significant differences based on which cannot be clearly confirmed the assumption about the fiscal development interdependence in V4 countries. From the long-term perspective, it can be stated that the fiscal development in V4 countries is a very slightly positively related aspect, but in the context of the implementation of a common consolidation strategy it is not sufficient.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"261-280"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43138221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Forecasts-Based Instrument Rule and Decision Making : How Closely Interlinked? The Case of Sweden","authors":"Karolina Tura-Gawron","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I2.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I2.16","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation fore-casts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to: (1) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate on the repo rate decisions, (2) analyze the influence of the inflation rate and GDP growth rate forecasts (in two year horizon) on the repo rate decisions in Sweden in years 1999–2006. Methods: The analysis encompasses the repo rates decisions, CPI inflation rate, GDP growth rate, central paths of CPI inflation forecasts and central paths of GDP growth rate forecasts (the mode values) in the two years horizon published by The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006. The studies are based on the Taylor-type instrument rule and forecast-based Taylor-type instrument rule. The methodology used is multiple linear regression models. Findings & Value added: The Central Bank of Sweden in years 1999–2006 implemented direct inflation forecast targeting (DIFT) rule. The decision-making algorithm was based on the CPI inflation forecasts and the rule of the thumb algorithm. The exact rule of the thumb was as follow: if the inflation forecast, in the two year forecast’s horizon exceeded the infla-tion target by 1 p.p., then the central bank raised the repo rate by 0.4 p.p; if it was below it, then the central bank reduced the repo rate by 0.4 p.p. If the inflation forecast was equal to the inflation target, then the repo rate remained unchanged. The historical repo rates differ from the theoretical estimated rule of the thumb’s repo rates by +/-0.28 p.p.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"295-315"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69084964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"THE MULTIFACTORIAL PASTOR-STAMBAUGH MODEL: EXPLAINING THE IMPACT OF LIQUIDITY ON THE RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE","authors":"Agata Gniadkowska-Szymańska","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I2.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I2.11","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The liquidity of assets in the financial market is under-stood gener-ally as costs, and the easiest way in which different types of assets can be converted into cash, or to put it simply, sold at the currently available price on the market. For a considerable period of time this category had not been duly considered in the framework of modern finance theory. As a result, a number of basic models constructed within the framework of this theory in its classical form did not include problems with liquidity. This applies to a number of aspects related to liquidity, with one of the most important being the relationship between the liquidity of trading in shares and the results obtained from these rates of return. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to determine whether the rate of return on shares increases with the increase in share liquidity and the incremental rate of return on this account decreases with increasing liquidity. The applied re-search methodology is similar to that described by Pastor and Stambaugh (2003). The model used in the empirical study is the expanded model of Fama and Francha (1993) for the liquidity factor. Methods: In this paper I present various factors which will affect the liquidity. The paper will also provide the results of research concerning the relations between spread and stock return on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The evidence drawn from WSE stock returns over the period 2004–2012 indicates that Amihuda measure and other variables have a significant effect on stock return using the multifactorial Pastor-Stambaugh. Findings & Value added: In the case of the Polish market, it can be stated that in the analysis based on the Pastor-Stambaugh model not all the variables included in this model are statistically significant. However, directional parameters associated with liquidity risk were statistically significant in all analyzed periods, which allows us to confirm the hypothesis that liquidity has a significant influence on the rate of return on shares listed on the Stock Exchange in Warsaw.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"211-228"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48190925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earnings Forecasts Errors In Prospectuses: Evidence From Initial Public Offerings On The Warsaw Stock Exchange","authors":"Anna Wawryszuk-Misztal","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I2.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I2.12","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Several studies investigated the issue of accuracy of earnings fore-casts disclosed in IPO prospectus because of its importance in the investor’s decisions. Disclosing earnings forecasts can reduce information asymmetry and encourage potential investors to buy offered shares. The accuracy of earnings forecasts, and especially its deter-minants, was explored by some researchers, but for Polish companies such studies have not been conducted. Purpose of the article: The first objective of this study is to examine the bias and accuracy of earnings forecasts disclosed in IPO prospectuses by Polish companies attempting to be listed on the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The second aim of this paper is to identify the relationship between the absolute fore-cast error employed as a measure of earnings accuracy and a number of company specific characteristics such as company’s size, leverage, forecast horizon, managerial ownership, number of shares offered to investors (in relation to total shares before IPO). Methods: The empirical analysis were conducted on a sample of 102 domestic companies that performed IPOs on the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange during 2006-2015 and disclosed earnings forecasts in IPO prospectus. The forecast error (FER) and absolute forecast error (AFER) were adopted as a measure of accuracy of earnings forecasts. The non-parametric test was employed to achieve the adopted aims. Findings & Value added: The results show that, on average, the forecasted earnings exceed the actual earnings (i.e. the earnings forecasts are optimistic) and fore-casts are inaccurate. Moreover, the optimistic forecasts are more inaccurate than pessimistic ones. The findings of multiple regression model show that three independent variables may affect the level of absolute forecast error: the company’s size, managerial ownership and forecast horizon.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"229-243"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49322110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact Of Sales Service In Marea Trading Simulation Under Changing Environment Circumstances","authors":"R. Šperka, Michal Halaška","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I2.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I2.19","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Managerial scientists use a lot of modelling techniques for business processes. In this paper we are focused on agent-based modelling and simulations, which emerged in the last two decades as a new approach. Autonomous and interacting intelligent agents are able to model and simulate complex systems in the business sphere. With the use of agent-based modelling and simulations we are able to understand how macro level outcomes are affected by micro level processes and vice versa. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the paper is to introduce recent development in the area of agent-based modelling and simulations focused on the business domain. Managers often have to make difficult decisions under the uncertainty and high risks. Agent-based modelling can provide powerful tools for lowering those risks through a possibility of running experiments, which is normally impossible in economics. In the second part we want to support the usefulness of agent-based simulations with our own simulations. Methods: The method used in this article is an agent-based simulation in a multi-agent system. We use a framework called MAREA. It is a simulation environment with integrated ERP system based on REA ontology. Our simulation model is based on a retail company that sells electronics. For simplicity, in our setup we trade with computer cables. Findings & Value added: In our simulations we experimented with the quality of sales service provided by company’s sales representatives. We investigated the impact of quality of sales service on company KPIs under the changing environment circumstances represented by disturbance agent. The quality of sales service is a part of quality of service and thus it affects the perception of brand and loyalty of customers towards the company. In our simulation setup we work with two types of customers, long-term customers and new ones. The result is that quality of sales service has mostly positive effects on company KPIs.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"355-371"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41553937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of payout policy and investment attractiveness of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange","authors":"Aleksandra Pieloch-Babiarz","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I4.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I4.35","url":null,"abstract":"Making decisions concerning the payout policy depends on many diversified neoclassical and behavioral determinants. Although these factors are well-described in the literature, there is still a research gap concerning the lack of a comprehensive impact model of payout policy determinants on the investment attractiveness of shares. The aim of this paper is to present the diverse nature of relationships between different forms of cash transfer to the shareholders and investments attractiveness of public companies in the context of determinants of payout policy. The possibility to achieve this objective was conditioned by empirical verification of research hypothesis stating that the diversify of payout forms is accompanied by the different determinants of payout policy which condition an effective investment of stock investors capital. The empirical research was conducted on the electromechanical companies which were listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in years 2006-2015. The data for analysis were mainly collected from database Notoria Service SA and Stock Exchange Yearbooks. The calculations were carried out using the methodology of taxonomic measure of investment attractiveness, as well as dividend premium and share repurchase premium. The final conclusion of our research is that the companies conducting the payout policy in different forms of cash transfer differ in terms of many characteristics, such as: financial standing, market value, ownership structure, company’s size and age. Moreover, their investment attractiveness differs according to regularity of payment, stock exchange situation and shareholders preferences. The value added of this paper is a new approach to the evaluation of capital investment with a special emphasis on the determinants of payout policy.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"675-691"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69084977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF BANKS’ CREDIT RATINGS","authors":"Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I1.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I1.6","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: The practical analysis suggests that credit ratings are especially significant for banks. The literature review suggests that in previous analysis researchers usually took into consideration financial factors of the banks’ credit ratings methodology. This article analyses the impact of macroeconomic factors on the banks’ credit ratings. Purpose of the article: The paper examines and analyses the impact of the macroeconomic risk factors on the credit ratings received by banks. In the article, the methodology of credit risk assessment proposed by Moody’s Investor Service and Standard & Poor’s Financial Service is presented. Two hypotheses are put herein. The first one is: Changes in countries’ credit ratings convey new information and influence on banks’ financial condition. The second hypothesis is: A highly-developed, stable economy with an advanced financial market has a positive influence on banks’ credit rating assessment. Methods: The study used banks’ and countries’ ratings assigned by Standard & Poor's and Moody's for the period from 1 January 2005 to 1 January 2016. To verify the hypotheses static panel data models have been applied. Findings & Value added: In credit rating agencies guidelines and previous research, the impact of countries’ credit ratings on those received by banks is not indicated. The impact of macroeconomic factors has not been verified. The analysis confirms that changes in countries’ credit ratings convey new information and influence the banks’ environment condition. But only for the assessment given by S&P the condition of banking sector is an important group of factors. For all verified types of credit ratings the risk of country is presented by countries’ credit rating, not by particular factors. These analyses suggest that during the risk estimation process prepared by banks, a country’s risk represented by its credit ratings should be taken into consideration more often than particular macroeconomic factors.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"101-120"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41550928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"INTERVENTION ON THE AGRICULTURAL LAND MARKET IN RELATION TO THE END OF THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD FOR PURCHASING AGRICULTURAL LAND BY FOREIGNERS","authors":"W. Lizińska, R. Marks-Bielska, K. Babuchowska","doi":"10.24136/eq.v12i1.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.v12i1.9","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: A traditional form of state intervention in agriculture comprised regulating the rights to ownership. One of the often discussed aspects of regulations refers to those binding for foreigners. Purpose of the article: The objective of the article was to analyse the position (of the Euro-pean Economic and Social Committee and the Polish legislator) regarding the phenomenon of purchasing agricultural property by foreigners as well as the opinions of farmers on the consequences for the agricultural land market resulting from ending the transitional period in Poland for purchasing agricultural property by foreigners as on 1 May 2016. Methods: Direct studies were conducted in 2015 among 86 farmers in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. Findings & Value added: The main reason for such a discussion conducted glob-ally and in Europe is the phenomenon of excessive concentration and the use of land for non-agricultural purposes. Whereas, the European Economic and Social Committee indicates that in order to limit unfavourable practices in the EU member states, activities directed at preventing speculation, preserving local traditions and ensuring a proper usufruct of land should be permitted. The majority of farmers were afraid of the changes in the agricultural land market after the end of the transitional period in purchasing agricultural property by foreigners. They emphasised the above by expressing opinions on regulations binding in the transitional period and their effectiveness. With regard to the provisions of the Act of 5 August 2015, farmers were afraid of an increase in prices of agricultural land and the capital advantage of foreigners.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"171-183"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45024934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"INTERREGIONAL R&D SPILLOVERS AND REGIONAL CONVERGENCE: A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM THE EU REGIONS","authors":"Andrea Furková, M. Chocholatá","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I1.1","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Many contemporary empirical studies and also most of economic growth theories recognize the importance of innovation and knowledge for achieving an economic growth. A large part of empirical literature has treated the issue of beta convergence without the spatial aspect, i.e. the possible spatial dependence among regions or states in growth process was neglected. Purpose of the article: In this paper, we investigate the link between selected R&D (Research and Development) indicators as proxies for the regional innovation and knowledge and economic performance of the region. We also assume a significant role of regional R&D spillovers in the regional growth process determination. Methods: The main methodological basis for our analysis is beta convergence approach and the dataset under the consideration consists of 245 NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics) EU (European Union) regions during the 2003–2014 period. Our anal-ysis is made with respect to spatial interactions across the EU regions. Findings & Value added: The influence of R&D indicators on the economic growth has been confirmed, and spatial interconnection across the EU regions have been proven. Potential existence of geographical R&D spillovers across the EU regions was examined by for-mulation of additional beta convergence model with spatial lag variables. We have identified that the influence of R&D spillovers is not strictly restricted to the neighbouring regions, but they spread across a larger area. For the construction of spatial lags of R&D indicators different spatial weight matrices were considered.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"9-24"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42122315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monopolistic Markups In The Polish Food Sector","authors":"Justyna Kufel-Gajda","doi":"10.24136/EQ.V12I1.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24136/EQ.V12I1.8","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Research background: Agro-food sectors are commonly considered as highly regulated, traditional and of strategic importance, mainly due to the food security issues. Changes in the related market structures are subject of constant interest because of their importance for competition and economic welfare of food producers and consumers. In Poland, a rising concentration among various branches of the food industry can be observed. Unfortunately, there is a lack of studies regarding the level of actually exerted market power. Purpose of the article: The main objective of the article was to depict the changes of the market power execution in the Polish food sector and its branches in the period 2002–2013. Methods: As a measure of market power, markups of price above the marginal cost were applied and for their estimation two methods were used, namely the Roeger method involving primal and dual Solow residuals and the method based on the marginal cost of labor. Yearly data from F-01 financial statements regarding 32 food sector branches and various accounting categories were used in the calculations. Findings & Value added: It was found that in the analyzed period the markup over marginal cost on average amounted to 9.75%, and it was increasing over time. The labor input category seemed to be not sufficient for the markup calculation. The evolution of the monopolistic power in the Polish food sector appears to be associated not only with the business cycle, but also with the sector developments accelerated by the accession to the EU. Moreover, the differences in results for the branches indicate a considerable heterogeneity in the Polish food industry companies pricing practices. The research constitutes the first trial of the measurement of both the Roeger markups in the Polish food sector branches and the labor markups changes in the Polish food sector.","PeriodicalId":45768,"journal":{"name":"Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"147-170"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2017-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44576508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}