Journal of Financial Economic Policy最新文献

{"title":"The macroeconomic impacts of the mobile money: empirical evidence from EVC plus in Somalia","authors":"Abdinur Ali Mohamed, M. Nor","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2022-0152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2022-0152","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study was to examine the macroeconomic impact of mobile money in Somalia using quarterly data from 2010 to 2020.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study applied the structural vector autoregressive approach to examine the response of the macroeconomic variables to the mobile money shocks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results show that mobile money increases consumer spending by reducing transaction costs and enhancing access to finance, which promotes the expansion of aggregate output. This study also finds that mobile money helps exchange rate stability and price level maintenance, boosting trade openness. Moreover, mobile money is linked to the rise in real income due to productivity improvement and price stability. The results of this study indicated that mobile money has a short-run relationship with aggregate output, household consumption, price level, trade openness and real income. Through the Granger causality test, this study finds that mobile money has a unidirectional relationship with the exchange rate, price level, household consumption and trade openness.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The empirical findings of this study imply that mobile money can create a wide range of financial services to improve the financial system in rural and urban areas; hence, it enables poor and rural members of society to make payments and receive-and-transfer money using their mobiles.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62092440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are quantitative easing effects transitory? Evidence from out-of-sample forecasts","authors":"Dimitris G. Kirikos","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0099","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Advocates of quantitative easing (QE) policies have emphasized some evidence that structural models do not predict long-term asset yields as well as naive forecasts, implying that predictions of price reversals cannot be profitable and that QE effects are not transitory. The purpose of this study is to reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting performance of structural time series processes relative to that of a random walk with or without drift.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses bivariate vector autoregression and Markov switching representations to generate out-of-sample forecasts of ten-year sovereign bond yields, when the information set is augmented by including the growth rate of the monetary base, and the estimation relies on monthly data from countries that have pursued unconventional policies over the last decade.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results show that naive forecasts are not better than those of structural time series models, based on root mean squared errors, while the Markov model provides additional information on price reversals, through probabilistic inferences regarding policy regime switches, which can induce agents to counteract QE interventions and reduce their effectiveness.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The novel features of this work are the use of a large information set including the instrument of unconventional monetary policy, the use of a structural model (Markov process) that can really inform about potential asset price reversals and the use of a large sample over which QE policies have been pursued.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46751701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Another look at banks as lenders of first resort: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis","authors":"Matthew S. Flynn, Yufei Wu","doi":"10.1108/jfep-07-2022-0175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2022-0175","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to provide a fresh look at banks as lenders in and extending past the COVID-19 crisis, with a particular focus on examining the results of recent work by Lei et al. (2020).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors’ replication, as well as the original paper, uses a fixed-effects model on panel data. The authors discuss issues regarding data sources as well as use an array of panel data robustness checks to help ascertain an appropriate empirical specification for continued research of this type.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The authors show that the results of Lei et al. (2020) are sensitive to the data source, as well as the construction of the standard errors in their regression framework, with an appropriate specification uncovered through panel data statistical tests. The authors also provide some extensions to the original work by including interacted fixed-effects models and extending the sample period from 2020Q1 to 2021Q1, noting some changes in results.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The authors provide novel results on banks’ lending constraints both at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and shortly thereafter. The study also provides an empirical framework for future studies conducted on similar panel data sets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43388158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of Islamic finance on trade in insurance services in selected countries in the Middle East region","authors":"Alya Al-Fori, Azmat Gani","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0091","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Islamic finance is becoming a core part of the financial services economy in the Middle East countries. There is a strong likelihood that Islamic finance is also driving the expansion of trade in insurance services. However, research on Islamic finance’s effect on trade in insurance services is scant. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating if Islamic finance has promoted trade in insurance services.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study adopts the gravity modelling framework and the panel data estimation procedure in understanding the effects of Islamic finance on trade in insurance.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation of Islamic finance with the exports and imports of insurance services. Economic sizes (domestic and trading partners), growth in trading partners, cost of doing business, legal rights and financial freedom are other statistically significant determinants.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000It makes a positive contribution to the Islamic financial services literature. Islamic finance is an integral part of the conventional banking and financial sector in the Middle East that actively fosters the expansion of insurance services that need support, given its essential role in services trade.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is unique as it directs attention to the role of Islamic finance in fostering trade in insurance services within an inclusive modelling framework that has been overlooked in the Islamic finance literature.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49612126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Basic income: a 50-state economic impact analysis","authors":"G. J. Jolley","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0090","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to estimate the economic impact of a basic income for each state in the USA.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Building on existing pilot studies of basic income in the USA, this paper presumes a $500 per month basic income for individuals earning less than $25,000 in annual income. Using impact analysis for planning (IMPLAN) input–output modeling software, estimated increase in gross state product and employment are provided on a state-by-state basis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000A $6,000 annual basic income ($500 per month) to adult persons earning less than $25,000 annually results in an increase in gross state product (e.g. gross “regional” product in IMPLAN terminology) ranging from 0.7% (District of Columbia) to 5.7% (Florida). Likewise, this increase in household spending will create demand for employment across these states, resulting in an increase in employment from 0.9% (District of Columbia) to 5.8% (Florida).\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To date, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first state-by-state analysis of the economic impact of a basic income provision to lower-income individuals.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44634041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labor shortages during the COVID-19 and labor supply based on minimizing effort to achieve a target utility level: confounding economic policies","authors":"R. Cebula, Maggie Foley","doi":"10.1108/jfep-03-2022-0080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2022-0080","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this analysis is to explain why labor shortages may have appeared during this pandemic. Interestingly, in this COVID-19 pandemic period, the labor supply shortage could very well become more easily explained than under the traditional portrayal of consumer economic behavior. The matter seemingly lends itself to provocative empirical inquiry.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000From this model, it can be shown that the consumer’s labor supply curve is negatively sloped and, indeed, could even assume the form of a rectangular hyperbola. Applying this model in the labor market could explain the labor shortage in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Arguably, rational consumer behavior can take the form, under a variety of circumstances (including cultural), for consumers/households that have achieved a “comfortable” standing of living/utility level, involve the minimization of work effort to achieve that utility level. In other words, constrained utility maximization is not the only rational form of consumer economic behavior. When the former behavior prevails over the latter, there are myriad implications. These do include an inverse relationship between work effort and wage rate, i.e. a negatively sloped labor supply curve.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper departs from the conventional treatment of deriving the supply curve of labor based on constrained utility maximization. Instead, it acknowledges that consumers may have a target standard of living and seek to minimize the cost of achieving that given living standard.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48665237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The linear and non-linear interactions between blockchain technology index and the stock market indices: a case study of the UAE banking sector","authors":"Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman, Mohamed Alshami, Adam Abdullah","doi":"10.1108/jfep-01-2022-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2022-0001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to investigate the linear and nonlinear interactions between the blockchain technology index and the UAE stock market index within the context of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai banking sector.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000In this study, linear analysis was performed using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) (1,1) model, whereas nonlinear analysis was performed using the wavelet coherence model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Based on the results of the GARCH (1) model, the authors find that the blockchain technology index has a positive significant impact on stock market returns in the Abu Dhabi and Dubai banking sector. In addition, the findings indicate that increasing blockchain integration in the banking industry decreases banks’ stock market volatility and facilitates price stabilization. Additionally, the coherence wavelet analysis reveals that there is a phase relationship between the blockchain technology index and banks’ stock market indices in the banking sector of the UAE. The association was stronger during the global pandemic crisis because they were moving together across different timescales.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000With the help of the linear analysis, this study offers a focal point and valuable insights to policymakers, central banks and commercial banks management on how implementing blockchain technology in the banking industry help boost stock market returns, reduce volatility and facilitate price stability. As a result of the nonlinear analysis of the significant long-term degree of co-movement between blockchain technology and banks’ stock markets in UAE, policymakers or the management of banks in UAE should take the growth of the blockchain technology industry into consideration to ensure the continued development of the banking sector. For investors, the findings provide implications for portfolio managers operating in the UAE who are encouraged to take short-term co-movement into account (1–16-week horizons) through both frequency and time when designing their portfolio while keeping long-horizon periods in mind is not recommended.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000It is a pioneering study that empirically examines the linear and nonlinear nexus between the blockchain technology index and banks’ stock market returns and price stability.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48730440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting financial inclusion-stability nexus: cross-country heterogeneity","authors":"Mallika Saha, Kumar Debasis Dutta","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0162","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to investigate the debated nexus of financial inclusion (FI) and financial stability (FS) in a comprehensive way, with several indicators of FI, considering nonlinearity and cross-country heterogeneity.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors introduce several indexes for FI by applying principal component analysis (PCA) and explore their impact on stability for a sample of 108 countries and subsamples based on income grouping as well as for pre- and post-crisis episodes over the period 2004–2017. To address the heterogeneity and endogeneity, the authors use the two-step quantile regression (2SQR), three-stage least square (3SLS) and two-step system-GMM (System-GMM).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings reveal that the relationship of FI and stability depends on the measurement of FI used and the heterogeneity of different macroeconomic factors. Besides, there is nonlinearity, irrespective of the measurement of inclusion used. The findings also confirm that the effect of FI is more prominent in countries with strong governance. The results are robust to several robustness validations, which could be useful for policymakers to align the divergence of these policies and ensure FS while expanding access to formal financial services.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study makes an attempt to explore the reasons behind the debated empirical findings of the existing literature by revisiting the nexus using several disaggregated indexes, each representing individual dimension and a multidimensional index, examine the possible nonlinearity and investigate the conditioning effect of different macroeconomic factors that might play a significant role in this relationship.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42205560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Energy prices and the macroeconomy: new evidence from Hodrick–Prescott and Hamilton filters","authors":"Puneet Vatsa, F. Mixon","doi":"10.1108/jfep-02-2022-0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-02-2022-0039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to investigate the cyclical associations among energy prices and key macroeconomic variables for the USA.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To this end, the recently developed Hamilton filter (HF) and the oft-used Hodrick–Prescott filter (HPF) are used. The two methods produce starkly different results regarding the relationships between energy prices on the one hand and output and employment on the other.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000While the HF suggests that energy prices are acyclical, the HPF suggests they are procyclical. However, the associations between energy prices and inflation are robust across the two methods, indicating that energy prices are strongly correlated with – and lead – the consumer price index (CPI). Furthermore, unlike the results produced by the HPF, those produced by the HF are robust across seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Given the inherent seasonality in energy prices and the differences in the underlying processes that generate macroeconomic and energy prices, the results obtained from the HPF filter should be interpreted with caution.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that uses the recently developed HF to examine the associations between the cyclical behaviors of three key macroeconomic variables in the USA – the industrial production index, the CPI, and total nonfarm employment – and the prices of natural gas, crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. Second, this study presents a comparison of the results produced by the two filtering techniques. Third, recognizing that energy prices are characterized by seasonality, this study tests the robustness of the results produced by the two filters across seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42566051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of financial development on mortgage development in Africa: an application of GMM dynamic pooled estimator","authors":"Y. A. Sare, E. Davies, Joseph Dery Nyeadi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-08-2021-0206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-08-2021-0206","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study purposely re‐examine the mortgage–finance nexus in Africa.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study adopted a panel data set spanning over the period 1995–2017 by using system generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic pooled estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Arellano and Bover (1995) involving 51 African countries.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings discovered that financial development (bank asset) affects mortgage development positively and this effect is highly significant while broad money supply as a measure of financial development impedes mortgage development in Africa. Furthermore, with the introduction of the quadratic term, broad money supply established a U-shaped relationship with mortgage financing indicating that more money in circulation facilitates mortgage development in Africa. However, the shape of the other variables depends largely on the nature of proxy used.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is unique in many aspects. First, examining the extant literature on the financial development and mortgage financing nexus, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study is cited at the African level with this relationship. Secondly is the empirical model, as it used the system GMM dynamic pooled estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Arellano and Bover (1995) to establish whether there is any effect of finance–mortgage nexus.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47653406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}