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Identifying the effects of large catastrophic shocks on the distribution of births using a combination of Benford's law and the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). 结合本福德定律和矢量误差修正模型(VECM),确定大型灾难性冲击对出生分布的影响。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2025.2465547
Bogdan-Vasile Ileanu
{"title":"Identifying the effects of large catastrophic shocks on the distribution of births using a combination of Benford's law and the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM).","authors":"Bogdan-Vasile Ileanu","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2025.2465547","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2025.2465547","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study examines the case of Romanian births, jointly distributed by age groups of mother and father, covering the period 1958-2022, under the potential influence of significant disruptors. Demographic shocks like armed conflicts, epidemics, floods, or slave trade are already present in the literature. Therefore, our study searches for the effects of World War II, the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree and COVID-19 shocks on birth distribution. Other legislative and political changes are not marginalized. Applying First Digit Law of Benford we search for anomalies in birth data. Then, following a vector-autoregressive method, we search for a long-term relation between fertility rate and anomaly in birth distribution. We also try to link disruptors and their potential effects as well. We found a statistically significant long term relation between fertility rate and birth distribution by age of parents. We confirm World War II as a major shock, and our results suggest adding the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree to the list of catastrophic events. The current work also reveals a time lag of 15 years between shock and its effects and a persistence of 15 to 20 years. COVID-19 does not impact (yet) the birth distribution by age of parents.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"17-37"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143484500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Which factor, food literacy or health promotion literacy, predicts women's healthy eating habits better? Results of a study in western Iran. 食品知识和健康宣传知识哪个更能预测妇女的健康饮食习惯?伊朗西部的一项研究结果。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2397346
Serajeddin Mahmoudiani
{"title":"Which factor, food literacy or health promotion literacy, predicts women's healthy eating habits better? Results of a study in western Iran.","authors":"Serajeddin Mahmoudiani","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2397346","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2397346","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The objective of this study was to examine the individual contributions of food literacy and health promotion literacy components to healthy eating habits. By exploring these relationships, we aim to enhance our understanding of the factors that shape individuals' dietary choices and behaviors. In 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted using survey methodology. The study sample was selected using the cluster sampling method, and data was collected using a standardized questionnaire among women aged 18 and older in Kermanshah city in western Iran. The findings of the study revealed that 26.4% of women demonstrated high levels of food knowledge, 44.4% exhibited high food skills, and 28.4% displayed high resilience. Additionally, 38.5% of participants demonstrated high health promotion literacy, while 47.9% exhibited high levels of healthy eating habits. Furthermore, the results indicated a significant relationship between the components of food literacy and healthy eating habits. Notably, an increase in health promotion literacy was found to positively correlate with improved healthy eating habits. Given that a significant proportion of women in the study exhibited low levels of food knowledge, it becomes crucial to prioritize efforts to enhance women's understanding of nutrition and food-related information.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"218-230"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142113239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inter-cohort shifts in chronic disease, dementia, and mortality. 慢性病、痴呆症和死亡率的队列间变化。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2419518
Patrick O'Keefe, Graciela Muniz-Terrera, Stacey Voll, Frank D Mann, Sean Clouston, Linda Wanström, Joseph L Rodgers, Scott Hofer
{"title":"Inter-cohort shifts in chronic disease, dementia, and mortality.","authors":"Patrick O'Keefe, Graciela Muniz-Terrera, Stacey Voll, Frank D Mann, Sean Clouston, Linda Wanström, Joseph L Rodgers, Scott Hofer","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2419518","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2419518","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Previous work using U.S. data has identified generational shifts, reflected in inter-cohort changes, in the incidence and prevalence of diseases in older ages. This study extends previous findings to England by examining similar results in memory complaints, heart conditions, stroke, diabetes, lung disease, and cancer using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We fit Cox proportional hazard models to the first eight waves (2002-2016) of the ELSA sample (<i>n</i> = 18,528). In addition to exploring shifts in disease incidence we also examine shifts in disease mortality. Both general and sex-related differences are examined. Disease incidence has increased for later-born cohorts in England, replicating similar trends in the U.S. Not all diseases showed differences between men and women, but when differences were identified, women had lower risks for disease. In comparison to the U.S. sample, disease trends in England are more negative (i.e. accelerated failure times) for more recently born cohorts. These results showing increasing incidence of disease among the later-born cohorts suggest the possibility of increased disease burden in coming years.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"203-217"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11702315/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142629222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demography leads to more conservative European societies. 人口结构导致欧洲社会更加保守。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2419075
Martin Fieder, Susanne Huber
{"title":"Demography leads to more conservative European societies.","authors":"Martin Fieder, Susanne Huber","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2419075","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2419075","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (a total of 66,188 participants from 15 European countries) and the European Gender and Generation Survey (a total of 121,248 participants from 12 countries), we investigated i) whether differences in political attitudes and attitudes toward family values (i.e. attitudes toward homosexual couples, attitudes toward female reproduction) are associated with differences in the average number of children, and ii) whether such an association between fertility and attitudes affects the population share of these attitudes in subsequent generations. We found that in most of the countries analyzed, right-wing (conservative) individuals have, on average, more children and grandchildren than left-wing (liberal) individuals. We also found that the proportion of right-wing individuals increases from generation to generation. Since political attitudes are presumably evolved traits that are socially and genetically transmitted from one generation to the next, these findings may suggest that demographic differences can lead to shifts in prevailing political attitudes. Thus, to some extent, demography may explain longer-term political trends.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"183-202"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142569408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reasons for the continued decline in fertility intentions: explanations from overtime work. 生育意愿持续下降的原因:来自加班的解释。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850
Jiawei Zhao, Yuxuan Li, Wenqi Li
{"title":"Reasons for the continued decline in fertility intentions: explanations from overtime work.","authors":"Jiawei Zhao, Yuxuan Li, Wenqi Li","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>China's fertility rate continues to decline despite government fertility policies. This study aims to explore the micro-level causes of China's declining fertility rate by examining the impact of changes in Chinese work patterns in recent years, particularly the prevalence of overtime work, on fertility intentions. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of overtime work on fertility intentions at both the provincial and urban levels. It also examines the specific mechanisms through which different types of overtime (e.g. weekend overtime, night shifts, on-call duty) affect fertility intentions. The results show that overtime work significantly inhibits fertility intentions, a trend that is consistent at both provincial and urban levels. Weekend overtime, night shifts, and on-call duties exhibit particularly pronounced inhibitory effects on fertility intentions. However, not all work arrangements negatively impact fertility intentions. Reasonable work schedules may even foster them. The research implies the need for policy measures to mitigate the negative effects of overtime work on fertility intentions.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"231-253"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142629539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographic evolution and natural increase projection of the Yanomami indigenous population in Brazil. 巴西雅诺马米土著人口的人口演变和自然增长预测。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2370263
Paulo Ricardo Martins-Filho, Francisco Helmer Almeida Santos, Analany Pereira Dias Araújo, Alexandre Raphael Deitos, Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado, Shirley Verônica Melo Almeida Lima, Bianca Marques Santiago
{"title":"Demographic evolution and natural increase projection of the Yanomami indigenous population in Brazil.","authors":"Paulo Ricardo Martins-Filho, Francisco Helmer Almeida Santos, Analany Pereira Dias Araújo, Alexandre Raphael Deitos, Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado, Shirley Verônica Melo Almeida Lima, Bianca Marques Santiago","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2370263","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2370263","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Yanomami population, residing in Brazil's largest indigenous reserve in the Amazon Rainforest, face significant health challenges exacerbated by external threats such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and mercury contamination from illegal mining. These issues, coupled with inadequate healthcare provision, have led to an alarming increase in mortality rates and potentially threaten the long-term survival of the Yanomami community. This ecological study utilized demographic data from the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health to explore the demographic evolution and natural increase of the Yanomami Indigenous population in Brazil from 2003 to 2022. Employing population pyramids, crude rates of natural increase, the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, and linear regression modeling, the study analyzed vital statistics to forecast demographic trends, with analysis conducted using the R statistical software. Our findings showed a substantial growth of the Yanomami population, yet with a decreasing natural increase rate (τ = -0.33; <i>p</i> = 0.047), suggesting a shift toward population stagnation or decline within the next century. These results call for urgent, coordinated actions to address the complex demographic trends and health challenges faced by Yanomami Indigenous people, ensuring their demographic sustainability and the preservation of their traditional ways of life amidst ongoing environmental and health crises.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"117-123"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141447296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Height and cognitive assessments in a cohort of US schoolchildren, kindergarten through fifth grade. 一组美国学龄儿童(幼儿园至五年级)的身高和认知评估。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2358906
Jason Murasko
{"title":"Height and cognitive assessments in a cohort of US schoolchildren, kindergarten through fifth grade.","authors":"Jason Murasko","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2358906","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2358906","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>An oft-repeated finding in child development research is that height and cognitive ability are positively related. Much of this work is limited in its ability to track height and cognitive development over time, with key constraints being the availability of longitudinal data and measures of ability that are comparable over time. This study evaluates the associations between height and assessments of reading, math, and science in a representative sample of US schoolchildren followed from kindergarten through fifth grade. Associations between height and assessment scores at each grade level, and height-growth and changes in scores over grade levels, are examined. The results suggest modest associations between concurrent height and assessment scores at each grade level that are robust to socioeconomic and school controls. There is limited association between height-growth and assessment outcomes, which is shown only for females. There is also little indication that height or height-growth is associated with improvements in scores. The findings suggest a modest association between height and cognitive ability in contemporary US schoolchildren, being attributed mostly to growth before kindergarten. The findings are consistent with the view that social and biological forces in early-life facilitate both physical and cognitive development.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"124-136"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141176027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does neighborhood matter? An analysis of HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan African countries. 邻里关系重要吗?对撒哈拉以南非洲国家艾滋病毒感染率的分析。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2384995
Anna Maria Parroco, Micaela Arcaio, Daria Mendola
{"title":"Does neighborhood matter? An analysis of HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan African countries.","authors":"Anna Maria Parroco, Micaela Arcaio, Daria Mendola","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2384995","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2384995","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Over two-thirds of the population living with HIV were concentrated in Eastern, Southern, Western, and Central Africa in 2021. This paper employs data from the Demographic and Health Survey to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and its socio-economic and demographic drivers at the neighborhood (macro-cluster) level. Additionally, the study examines the existence of differences in such relationships among countries. The results of the fractional logistic regression models highlight that highly educated neighborhoods are less likely to be affected by HIV. A greater average number of children, potentially due to programs that promote access to preventive antenatal care and prevention, is associated with a lower likelihood of residents living with HIV. Notably, HIV testing coverage is prevalent in neighborhoods with a high prevalence of HIV. It is also evident that there are notable differences between countries, which demonstrate national context plays a crucial role in the association between education, number of children, testing coverage, and HIV prevalences.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"149-162"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141789431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adverse childhood experiences, symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood: Mediation role of life history strategy. 童年的不良经历与成年后的焦虑和抑郁症状:生活史策略的调解作用。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2359600
Nazila Amani, Gholamreza Dehshiri
{"title":"Adverse childhood experiences, symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood: Mediation role of life history strategy.","authors":"Nazila Amani, Gholamreza Dehshiri","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2359600","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2359600","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Life history theory has considered the effects of childhood experiences. The present study aimed to investigate the mediating role of life history strategy and the moderating role of gender in the relationship between childhood experiences and symptoms of anxiety and depression in adulthood. In this study, 248 Iranians (including 162 females and 86 males) between 18 and 53 voluntarily participated and responded to all online questionnaires regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were analyzed with SPSS and macro PROCESS. The mediation analysis results demonstrated that the life history strategy mediates the relationship between childhood experiences and symptoms of anxiety and depression. The moderated mediation analysis revealed that there were no gender differences in the moderated mediation. The results have highlighted the importance of life history strategies in the association between childhood experiences and depression and anxiety symptoms and can be considered in the design of interventions based on the prevention of people's vulnerability to mental disorders.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141157739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The influence of parental occupational status on under-five mortality in Ethiopia. 埃塞俄比亚父母职业状况对五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响。
IF 1 4区 社会学
Biodemography and Social Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2376568
Endrias Liranso, Fang Yang
{"title":"The influence of parental occupational status on under-five mortality in Ethiopia.","authors":"Endrias Liranso, Fang Yang","doi":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2376568","DOIUrl":"10.1080/19485565.2024.2376568","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Few studies have examined the mediators of the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia. We examine the association between parental occupational status and under-five mortality risk in Ethiopia and the role of two mediating variables, antenatal care visits and delivery by a health professional, in this relationship. Using birth data from the nationally representative 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, the study finds that parental occupation, antenatal care visits, and delivery by a health professional are associated with under-five mortality risk. The study also finds that after controlling for mediating variables, parents engaged in professional, agricultural, and manual labor still have lower odds of under-five mortality risk than children of non-working parents. Future research should focus on the pathway from parental employment to child mortality risk, not through access to antenatal care and delivery by health professionals.</p>","PeriodicalId":45428,"journal":{"name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","volume":" ","pages":"163-182"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141591657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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