Annals of FinancePub Date : 2023-01-17DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00423-w
Giulio Bottazzi, Francesco Cordoni, Giulia Livieri, Stefano Marmi
{"title":"Uncertainty in firm valuation and a cross-sectional misvaluation measure","authors":"Giulio Bottazzi, Francesco Cordoni, Giulia Livieri, Stefano Marmi","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00423-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00423-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The degree of uncertainty associated with the value of a company plays a relevant role in valuation analysis. We propose an original and robust methodology for company market valuation, which replaces the traditional point estimate of the conventional Discounted Cash Flow model with a probability distribution of fair values that convey information about both the expected value of the company and its intrinsic uncertainty. Our methodology depends on two main ingredients: an econometric model for company revenues and a set of firm-specific balance sheet relations that are estimated using historical data. We explore the effectiveness and scope of our methodology through a series of statistical exercises on publicly traded U.S. companies. At the firm level, we show that the fair value distribution derived with our methodology constitutes a reliable predictor of the company’s future abnormal returns. At the market level, we show that a long-short valuation (LSV) factor, built using buy-sell recommendations based on the fair value distribution, contains information not accessible through the traditional market factors. The LSV factor significantly increases the explanatory and the predictive power of factor models estimated on portfolios and individual stock returns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"63 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00423-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42628871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2023-01-05DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00420-z
Leslie Rodríguez-Valencia, Prosper Lamothe-Fernández, David Alaminos
{"title":"The market value of SMEs: a comparative study between private and listed firms in alternative stock markets","authors":"Leslie Rodríguez-Valencia, Prosper Lamothe-Fernández, David Alaminos","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00420-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00420-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to compare the market value of private firms and publicly listed small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) in alternative stock markets through a private discount approach with estimates of value based on discounted cash flow projections and along with a comparable multiples approach. The valuation methodology applied in this study yielded a final sample that included 232 observations between public and private companies in the Spanish market. To calculate the discount, we apply the different approaches of discounted cash flow and multiples, such as valuation, earnings, book value, and revenue. Our results conclude there is no private discount, instead, the outcomes of this article suggest a premium over public firms for some ratios. The negative private company discounts mean a premium and, on the other hand, some multiples suggest a discount according to the method of valuation. This paper proves private discounts resulted does not have any comparable value within the same country although all firms in Spain use the same currency. We value the discounted cash flows of our forecasts using a discount rate based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), so our study can also be viewed as a test sensitivity of CAPM-based approaches to equity risk premium, terminal value, and growth rate. Furthermore, we compare historical transaction multiples of privately held companies with transaction multiples of similar publicly held firms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"95 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00420-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45201652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00421-y
Giovanni Masala, Filippo Petroni
{"title":"Drawdown risk measures for asset portfolios with high frequency data","authors":"Giovanni Masala, Filippo Petroni","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00421-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00421-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we analyze Drawdown-based risk measures for an equity portfolio with high-frequency data. The returns of individual stocks are modeled through multivariate weighted-indexed semi-Markov chains with a copula dependence structure. Through this recently published model, we show that the estimate of Drawdown-based risk measures is more faithful than that obtained with the application of classic econometric models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"265 - 289"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00421-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44132592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-12-05DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6
Viviana Ventre, Cruz Rambaud Salvador, Roberta Martino, Fabrizio Maturo
{"title":"A behavioral approach to inconsistencies in intertemporal choices with the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology","authors":"Viviana Ventre, Cruz Rambaud Salvador, Roberta Martino, Fabrizio Maturo","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00419-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The framework of this paper is behavioral finance and, more specifically, the analysis of the main anomalies (delay, magnitude and sign effects) present in the processes of intertemporal choice. To the extent of our knowledge, only the delay effect (also known as decreasing impatience) has been discriminated between moderately and strongly decreasing impatience. However, taking into account that anomalies must be explained from a psychological point of view, the main objective of this paper is to relate the aforementioned paradoxes with the four categories of temperaments (artisan, guardian, idealist and rational) by using the sixteen personality types derived from the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator and the Behavioral Investor Types. To do this, we will use the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology in order to detect the different levels of impatience through the so-called hyperbolic factor. Indeed, the main contribution of this paper refers to an empirical application which complements the theoretical analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"233 - 264"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44437803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-21DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8
Tristan Caballero-Montes
{"title":"Integrating market conditions into regulatory decisions on microfinance interest rates: does competition matter?","authors":"Tristan Caballero-Montes","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00417-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microfinance rapidly developed and commercialized, exacerbating competition and the attention paid to profits. In response, many governments have capped microcredit interest rates. Using unique data on interest rate caps and a dataset comprising 1115 microfinance institutions over 2015–2018, we investigate the effect of such regulatory measures on loan sizes, with fixed-effect and two-stage residual inclusion regressions. Going further with a moderation analysis and multiple measurements of competition, we investigate whether market conditions affect this relationship. We find that microfinance institutions facing interest rate caps are associated with larger loans and financial exclusion, and that competition emphasizes this adverse effect. We suggest two mechanisms explaining such results: the deterioration of cross-subsidization possibilities and the exacerbation of risk-taking strategies of microfinance institutions, both favored by competition. Therefore, we argue against interest rate restrictions, and for the adoption of a more systemic analysis of regulatory outcomes integrating market conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"201 - 232"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47109482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-15DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9
Mario Eboli, Bulent Ozel, Andrea Teglio, Andrea Toto
{"title":"Connectivity, centralisation and ‘robustness-yet-fragility’ of interbank networks","authors":"Mario Eboli, Bulent Ozel, Andrea Teglio, Andrea Toto","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the effects that connectivity and centralisation have on the response of interbank networks to external shocks that generate phenomena of default contagion. We run numerical simulations of contagion processes on randomly generated networks, characterised by different degrees of density and centralisation. Our main findings show that the degree of robustness-yet-fragility of a network grows progressively with both its degree of density or centralisation, although at different paces. We also find that sparse and decentralised interbank networks are generally resilient to small shocks, contrary to what so far believed. The degree of robustness-yet-fragility of an interbank network determines its propensity to generate a too-many-to-fail problem. We argue that medium levels of density and high levels of centralisation prevent the emergence of a too-many-to-fail issue for small and medium shocks whilst drastically creating the problem in the case of large shocks. Finally, our results shed some light on the actual robustness-yet-fragility of the observed core-periphery national interbank networks, highlighting the existing risk of systemic crises.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 2","pages":"169 - 200"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10436-022-00416-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43950331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-11-09DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w
Qi Zhao, Alexandra Chronopoulou
{"title":"Delta-hedging in fractional volatility models","authors":"Qi Zhao, Alexandra Chronopoulou","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00415-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we propose a delta-hedging strategy for a long memory stochastic volatility model (LMSV). This is a model in which the volatility is driven by a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with long-memory parameter <i>H</i>. We compute the so-called hedging bias, i.e. the difference between the Black–Scholes Delta and the LMSV Delta as a function of <i>H</i>, and we determine when a European-type option is over-hedged or under-hedged.\u0000</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"119 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49232096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-09-14DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y
José Valente, Mário Augusto, José Murteira
{"title":"Bargaining power and renegotiation of small private debt contracts","authors":"José Valente, Mário Augusto, José Murteira","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00413-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study is focused on the renegotiation of small debt contracts for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We use a proprietary database from a Brazilian bank and find that, when compared to large loans, the probability of renegotiation of small loans is much lower. We argue that this is due to the lack of <i>ex-ante</i> contingencies in this kind of loan, which reduces the transfer of control to the lender in situations in which the borrower is not in financial distress, and to the lower bargaining power of SMEs when compared to large public companies. We find that borrower delinquency events and borrower bargaining power proxies are positively related to the probability of small loan renegotiation. We also find that delinquency events reduce the probability of borrower-friendly outcomes as well as the number of key contractual terms renegotiated favorably to the borrower. Further, we find that the borrower’s bargaining power increases the likelihood that the borrower will obtain a favorable outcome and a greater number of favorable key contractual terms in the outcome of the renegotiation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"485 - 510"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47372631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x
Yumo Zhang
{"title":"Dynamic optimal mean-variance portfolio selection with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate","authors":"Yumo Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00414-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies optimal portfolio selection problems in the presence of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate under the mean-variance criterion. The financial market consists of a risk-free asset (cash), a zero-coupon bond (roll-over bond), and a risky asset (stock). Specifically, we assume that the interest rate follows the Vasicek model, and the risky asset’s return rate not only depends on a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process but also has stochastic covariance with the interest rate, which embraces the family of the state-of-the-art 4/2 stochastic volatility models as an exceptional case. By adopting a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) approach and solving two related BSDEs, we derive, in closed form, the static optimal (time-inconsistent) strategy and optimal value function. Given the time inconsistency of the mean-variance criterion, a dynamic formulation of the problem is further investigated and the explicit expression for the dynamic optimal (time-consistent) strategy is derived. In addition, analytical solutions to some special cases of our model are provided. Finally, the impact of the model parameters on the efficient frontier and the behavior of the static and dynamic optimal asset allocations is illustrated with numerical examples.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"511 - 544"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46088806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Annals of FinancePub Date : 2022-07-30DOI: 10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z
Thomas A. Severini
{"title":"Some properties of portfolios constructed from principal components of asset returns","authors":"Thomas A. Severini","doi":"10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10436-022-00412-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Principal components analysis (PCA) is a well-known statistical method used to analyze the covariance structure of a random vector and for dimension reduction. When applied to an <i>N</i>-dimensional random vector of asset returns, PCA produces a set of <i>N</i> principal components, linear functions of the asset return vector that are mutually uncorrelated and which have some important statistical properties. The purpose of this paper is to consider the properties of portfolios based on such principal components, know as PC portfolios, including the efficiency of PC portfolios, the use of PC portfolios to reduce the return variance of a given portfolio, and the properties of factor models with PC portfolios as factors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":"18 4","pages":"457 - 483"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45688791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}