China Economic Journal最新文献

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Long-term forecast and policy discussion on China’s carbon emissions 中国碳排放的长期预测与政策探讨
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278
Min Wang
{"title":"Long-term forecast and policy discussion on China’s carbon emissions","authors":"Min Wang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT By decomposing the changes of carbon emissions into effects of economic growth, industrial structural change, technological change and energy structure change, the paper firstly discusses the contribution of each effect to China’s carbon emission changes between 2020 and 2030, and forecasts China’s total carbon emissions in 2030. In particular, the paper strengthens that a decrease in population and a significant slowdown in urbanization will significantly reduce the construction demand, the main driver for high growth of carbon emissions in China, and provide a relatively favorable economic environment for China to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. The paper then discusses on how to achieve the ”dual carbon” goals with the lowest possible economic cost by relying on market and price mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"104 - 120"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44053081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The potential of China’s ecosystems in meeting the carbon neutrality goal: evidence from the forest sector 中国生态系统在实现碳中和目标方面的潜力:来自森林部门的证据
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277
Yuanyuan Yi, Jintao Xu
{"title":"The potential of China’s ecosystems in meeting the carbon neutrality goal: evidence from the forest sector","authors":"Yuanyuan Yi, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Forest carbon sequestration has great potential for climate change mitigation. We show the cost-effectiveness of using forests as Nature-based Solutions pathways that offset carbon dioxide (CO2). Afforestation and reforestation expand forest cover, sustainable forest management increases forest productivity, and substituting carbon-intensive materials with wood products avoids the CO2 emitted in the production processes of these materials. In terms of these activities, we estimate that China’s total forest carbon sequestration potential will reach 2.4 billion tons of CO2 in 2050. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2050 helps China meet its goal of carbon neutrality or net zero emissions.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"185 - 202"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49331848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the CO2 marginal abatement cost and implications for climate policies in China’s industrial sector: A firm-level analysis 中国工业部门二氧化碳边际减排成本估算及其对气候政策的影响:一个企业层面的分析
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281
Xing Chen, Xuan Wang, Tianyang Xi, Jintao Xu
{"title":"Estimating the CO2 marginal abatement cost and implications for climate policies in China’s industrial sector: A firm-level analysis","authors":"Xing Chen, Xuan Wang, Tianyang Xi, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for CO2 of China’s industrial sector. Leveraging comprehensive firm-level panel data spanning the period 2011–2015, we employ a parameterized directional output distance function to estimate the shadow price of CO2. By doing so, we derive the marginal abatement cost for individual firms across different years, which provides crucial insights into two fundamental aspects: first, the variation in shadow prices as indicators of the economic efficiency of existing climate policies; and second, the carbon price levels necessary to achieve CO2 mitigation targets in the future. Furthermore, we conduct scenario simulations to assess the potential industrial output loss resulting from forthcoming carbon policies, such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our findings underscore the necessity for a considerably higher tax rate to stimulate pollution reduction in order to meet the desired emission targets.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"217 - 239"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42438106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services 中国经济转型的写照:从制造业到服务业
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463
Bin Zhang, He Zhu, Jiajia Zhang
{"title":"A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services","authors":"Bin Zhang, He Zhu, Jiajia Zhang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Chinese economy marked a turning point around 2010 to 2012, with economic growth, expenditure structure, industrial structure, and other macroeconomic indicators running counter to their earlier trends. There was a common cause behind all the changes: economic transformation from manufacturing to services. Starting with saturation in demand for manufactured goods, household consumption began to shift toward more human capital – intensive services, which led to a chain of effects in the industrial structure, slower economic growth, altered labor flows, as well as changes in the features of the business cycle. Compared with other high-income economies when they were at a similar development stage, China’s economic transformation from manufacturing to services has been the standard practice.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"14 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45067068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path 理解中国的共同富裕之路:背景、定义和路径
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950
Shiyun Li
{"title":"Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path","authors":"Shiyun Li","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT China’s ambition to realize common prosperity for all the people has received worldwide attention since its complete victory over extreme poverty in 2020. This paper summarizes for the first time the “who, what, when and how” that essentially characterizes common prosperity, i.e. common prosperity is prosperity for all the people, is prosperity in all aspects, means step-wise prosperity and calls for joint contribution, and clarifies that it is not equivalent to “becoming rich at the same time” or “being equally well off”, nor is it the same thing as egalitarianism. Contemporary China faces challenges including the development challenge, the distribution problem and the public products supply issue in achieving this long-term goal. Possible solutions may be fostering high-quality development, optimizing income distribution, strengthening the social safety net, achieving effective digital governance and promoting high-level opening-up.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"1 - 13"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44521590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Statement of Retraction: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment 撤回声明:他们为什么会陷入麻烦?企业特征和制度距离对中国对外直接投资的影响
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629
{"title":"Statement of Retraction: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"100 - 100"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46565067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The international monetary system: evolution and revolution 国际货币体系:演变与革命
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193
Yanliang Miao, Xu Fei
{"title":"The international monetary system: evolution and revolution","authors":"Yanliang Miao, Xu Fei","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, evolution has been the defining feature of changes in the IMS. The IMS has always been dominated by the US dollar. With it comes four structural issues: imbalance, lack of coordination, inade quacy, and weaponization of financial infrastructure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict will further accelerate the diversification and fragmentation of the IMS. But it might also lead to revolutionary changes such as balkanization of the IMS and even the end of financial globalization. Diversification of reserve currency could alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy problems of the IMS, restraining the dollar weaponization to some extent, but could not solve the problem of incoordination. Without a fair and inclusive IMS, ever larger financial spillovers will come from center countries to peripheral ones, and the global economy and financial system will face greater challenges in both efficiency and stability.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"235 - 252"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42591618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
China and global value chain restructuring 中国与全球价值链重组
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198
Yuqing Xing
{"title":"China and global value chain restructuring","authors":"Yuqing Xing","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Global value chains have been a major means of manufacturing and trading goods internationally. Economic efficiency was the sole factor driving the proliferation of GVCs and the China-centered GVCs were established in a variety of manufactured products. In recent years, the China–US trade war and the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic have sent shock waves and disrupted smooth operations of GVCs, which has triggered the geographic restructuring of GVCs, in particular value chain diversification away from China. This paper analyzes the centrality of China in value chains and the vulnerabilities of GVCs exposed to the trade war and the pandemic. This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on GVC restructuring from different perspectives and discusses policy options that China could cope with the tide of the value chain diversification.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"310 - 329"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48785540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition 大国竞争时代的美中贸易关系
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185
D. Dollar
{"title":"U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition","authors":"D. Dollar","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China’s huge manufacturing output. From China’s point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"277 - 289"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42454762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses 美国“外部可持续性”问题的重新出现,以及中国应该如何应对
IF 3.3
China Economic Journal Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167
Yu Yongding
{"title":"The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses","authors":"Yu Yongding","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract America’s current-account deficit has grown significantly since 2020, reaching 3.6% of GDP last year – its highest level since 2008. At the same time, its net foreign debt reached a staggering $18 trillion, or 78% of GDP. And fast-rising inflation has prompted the US Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates and reducing its holdings of Treasury securities – moves that are likely to impede growth and increase the government’s borrowing cost. Will America’s “external sustainability” be at risk again? To answer that question, we must consider the four variables on which external sustainability depends: the gap between private saving and private investment, the size of the budget deficit, investment-income levels, and the rate of GDP growth. Geopolitics might compound the challenges ahead. The US has avoided a balance-of- payments and dollar crisis in the past largely because Asian central banks and oil- exporting countries have tirelessly purchased US government bonds and Treasury bills. But amid rising geopolitical tensions, these buyers might decide – or be forced – to rethink their purchases. It is against this backdrop that the Fed is pursuing rather aggressive interest-rate hikes and quantitative tightening. But increased demand for foreign capital to finance the trade deficit, together with greater reluctance by foreign investors to purchase US government bonds and Treasuries, might put America in a quandary. It is likely that America’s external balance will deteriorate significantly, unless US GDP growth slows significantly.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"263 - 276"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43911582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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