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International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence最新文献

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Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation 超越偏见最小化:通过优化和人类增强来提高智能
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120
David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin
{"title":"Beyond Bias Minimization: Improving Intelligence with Optimization and Human Augmentation","authors":"David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120","url":null,"abstract":"For the last half-century, the U.S. and Allied Intelligence Community (IC) has sought to minimize the ostensibly detrimental effects of cognitive biases on intelligence practice. The dominant approach has been to develop structured analytic techniques (SATs), teach them to analysts in brief training sessions, provide the means to use SATs on the job, and hope they work. The SAT approach, however, suffers from severe conceptual problems and a paucity of support from scientific research. For example, a highly promoted SAT—the analysis of competing hypotheses—was shown in several recent studies to either not improve judgment quality or to make it worse. This article recaps the key problems with the SAT approach and sketches some alternative interventions. At the core of these proposals is the idea that intelligence agencies should be focused broadly on improving intelligence and not narrowly on minimizing bias. While the latter contributes to achieving the former, overemphasis on bias minimization could inadvertently bias agencies toward a singular form of intervention, blinding then from potentially more effective interventions. Two lines of alternative intervention are sketched. The first line focuses on postanalytic statistical optimization methods such as recalibration and performance-weighted aggregation of analysts’ judgments. The second line focuses on a broad human augmentation program to optimize human cognition through better sleep, exercise, nutrition (including nootropic compounds), and biometric tracking. Both lines of effort would require substantial scientific investment by the IC to examine risks and efficacy.","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135733964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shadows and Light: Asian Intelligence 阴影与光明:亚洲人的智慧
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831
Marianne Taflinger
{"title":"Shadows and Light: Asian Intelligence","authors":"Marianne Taflinger","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2247831","url":null,"abstract":"Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsMarianne TaflingerMarianne Taflinger is a Research Associate at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School. She earned a master’s degree in public administration from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and has published in several journals. The author can be contacted at mtafling@nps.edu.Notes1 Stuart Hall, Cultural Studies 1983: A Theoretical History, edited by Jennifer Daryl Slack and Lawrence Grossberg (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2016), p. 33, as quoted in Shaffer The Handbook of Asian Intelligence Cultures, p. xvi.2 Irena Chiru, “National Intelligence Cultures,” in The Conduct of Intelligence in Democracies: Processes, Practices, edited by Florina Christiana Matei and Carolyn Halladay (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2019), pp. 214–215.3 Shuja Nawaz, Who Controls Pakistan’s Security Forces?, Special Report 297 (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, December 2011), p. 4.4 Bidanda M. Chengappa, “The ISI Role in Pakistan’s Politics,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 11 (2000).","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135981164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ukrainian Nationalist Movement and Soviet Counterinsurgency Operations 乌克兰民族主义运动与苏联平叛行动
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577
Olga Bertelsen
{"title":"Ukrainian Nationalist Movement and Soviet Counterinsurgency Operations","authors":"Olga Bertelsen","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2248577","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"364 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135980026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intelligence Oversight across the Anglosphere 跨英语圈的情报监督
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240
James J. Wirtz
{"title":"Intelligence Oversight across the Anglosphere","authors":"James J. Wirtz","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2250240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75609771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Psychology of Structured Analytical Techniques 重新审视结构化分析技术的心理学
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803
Markus Denzler
{"title":"Revisiting the Psychology of Structured Analytical Techniques","authors":"Markus Denzler","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2243803","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72702966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structured Analytic Techniques: A Pragmatic Approach 结构化分析技术:实用的方法
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308
Michael J. Ard
{"title":"Structured Analytic Techniques: A Pragmatic Approach","authors":"Michael J. Ard","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2241308","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91187626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forty Years of Soviet Spying in NATO: A Preliminary Study 苏联在北约的间谍活动四十年:初步研究
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649
W. T. Murphy
{"title":"Forty Years of Soviet Spying in NATO: A Preliminary Study","authors":"W. T. Murphy","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2246649","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85967827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Finding a “Deep State Structure” in the Intelligence Community 在情报界发现“深层国家结构”
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708
M. Goodman
{"title":"Finding a “Deep State Structure” in the Intelligence Community","authors":"M. Goodman","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2245708","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"2015 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87072500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Training Intelligence Officers to Detect Deception and Elicit Information 训练情报人员发现欺骗和获取情报
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307
P. Granhag
{"title":"Training Intelligence Officers to Detect Deception and Elicit Information","authors":"P. Granhag","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2241307","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"PP 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84854039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rehabilitating Dad’s Army 重建父亲的军队
IF 0.9
International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2023.2243964
K. Sinisi
{"title":"Rehabilitating Dad’s Army","authors":"K. Sinisi","doi":"10.1080/08850607.2023.2243964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2243964","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45249,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85104143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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