Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-11-25DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00025
{"title":"Surprise after surprise – A preface of the editor","authors":"","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00025","url":null,"abstract":"At the end of the assembling this Special Issue in August 2021, the 11 of its kind, it is not yet clear whether the worldwide use of the designation COVID-19 is appropriate. There are some indications that the first cases of the new type of coronavirus may have occurred before 2019 and, more importantly, it is not known whether this deadly disease affects calendar years 2020 and 2021 or whether 2022 will be a pandemic year, too. All we know for sure is that when the WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, no one thought that it would hit the economies of every country on Earth hard. The medical problem initially appeared to have only a public health dimension. There is a famous phrase in Marx’s Capital that all macroeconomists, regardless of their worldview, have always regarded as trivial: “Whatever the form of the process of production in a society, it must be a continuous process, must continue to go periodically through the same phases. A society can no more cease to produce than it can cease to consume. When viewed, therefore, as a connected whole, and as flowing on with incessant renewal, every social process of production is, at the same time, a process of reproduction.” That in peacetime the governments of most countries in the world would be willing to halt production by administrative fiat – that is, with the deliberate intention of reducing GDP and increasing unemployment – was utterly inconceivable.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43045916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00022
Zoltán Pollák, David Popper
{"title":"Stress tests in Hungarian banking after 2008","authors":"Zoltán Pollák, David Popper","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The 2008 crisis highlighted the importance of using stress tests in banking practice. The role of these stress tests is to identify and precisely estimate the effect of possible future changes in market conditions on capital adequacy and profitability. This paper seeks to show a possible methodology to calculate the stressed point-in-time probability of default (PD) parameter. The presented approach contains a linear autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the connection between the logit of default rates and the relevant macroeconomic factors, and uses migration matrices to calculate PDs from the forecasted default rates. The authors illustrate the applications of this methodology using the Hungarian real credit portfolio data.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47930121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00021
B. Hanley
{"title":"Is Modern Monetary Theory’s prescription to spend without reference to tax receipts an invitation to tyranny?","authors":"B. Hanley","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A set of policy prescriptions based on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) have been developed that are independent of the monetary model, which are often presented together, in a context that does not require taxation: guaranteed income, job guarantee and full employment. These are enabled by the ability of a government to deficit spend as needed, as long as government controls its sovereign currency.\u0000 Here I raise the concern that implementing MMT accounting could cause increases in political power inequality relative to citizens not seen since the medieval era or before. The assumption that spending and tax policy in an MMT system would occur as proponents expect is contradicted by the history of political choices regarding spending and taxation over the past half-century. The record of behaviour by politicians in the nations where foreign aid money “fell from the sky,” thus divorcing national income from the tax base, also contradicts this idea.\u0000 With removal of the formal requirement for taxation, politicians operating in an MMT system will have little inherent reason in the short term to treat citizens well except moral suasion. This should provide a foundation for tyranny unparalleled in modern history. Incorporating progressive taxation into MMT’s corpus, for the express purpose of economic and political stability, is suggested in order to achieve the overall aims of the MMT policy advocates. However, this may not be sufficient. In addition, considering increasing the role of governors/leaders of states within the monetary unions may be useful, because those governments do need to follow the old rules of taxation to support spending, and this may provide a counterweight.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45439351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00019
Reyhan Cafri Açci, Pinar Kaya Samut
{"title":"Wealthier is healthier? Healthier is wealthier? A comprehensive econometric analysis of the European countries","authors":"Reyhan Cafri Açci, Pinar Kaya Samut","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Healthier people contribute more to the development of the economy. Besides, in a better economy, people have a better quality and healthier life. At this stage, one has to ask which one precedes the other: health or wealth? To find the answer, this study aims to investigate the causality relationship between health and inclusive wealth in the European countries for the period of 1990–2015. The causality between health and inclusive wealth scores, which are estimated by cluster and discriminant analyses, is investigated by the panel causality test. The research results indicate bidirectional causality between health and inclusive wealth. A one-way causality is detected in 11 cases as being from inclusive wealth to health and in 8 the other way. Furthermore, a two-way causality is found in 2 countries. Among the results, it is noteworthy that 91% of the countries with causality from inclusive wealth to health are among the healthy countries.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49470907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00020
J. Stawska, P. Mourão
{"title":"Expansionary or restrictive policies in the Eurozone? Dominating trends in the first two decades","authors":"J. Stawska, P. Mourão","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Our aim is to identify periods of restrictive versus expansionary economic policy in the euro area in the last two decades. We firstly conducted the study for identifying the dominant trend in fiscal policies and then in monetary policies. We studied several fiscal outputs, focusing on the cyclical adjusted primary balance. We also analysed the European long-term and short-term interest rates. The study was conducted for several windows, namely for 3-, 4- and 5-year periods. Additional procedures were conducted for robustness checks, namely the study of structural breaks in the analysed time series as well as a study of them recurring to Markov-Switching Regimes models. For most of the analysed periods and subperiods of the series, we concluded for the presence of expansionary policies either in the fiscal or in monetary European domains. Finally, the results and the analysis of dependencies in the euro area economy favour the evidence that economic authorities in the euro area have sought to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy to stabilise the economy.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45949319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00018
Gergely Csurilla, A. Gyimesi, Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás, Tamás Sterbenz
{"title":"Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games","authors":"Gergely Csurilla, A. Gyimesi, Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás, Tamás Sterbenz","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00018","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We describe a statistical approach for the measurement of the newly defined luck-based noise factor in sports. It is defined as the difference between the actual outcome and the expected outcome based on the model predictions. We raise the question whether some sports exhibit a higher level of noise-factor than others, making investments in that sport riskier. Data from 14 individual sports in six Summer Olympic Games between 1996 and 2016 were included in the analysis. Market shares are predicted by the autoregressive linear and zero-inflated beta regression models with exogenous variables, where the higher Normalized Mean Squared Error indicates a higher noise-factor. Modern pentathlon, tennis and cycling showed the highest noise-factors, whereas swimming, table tennis and athletics were the least noisy. Possible reasons are discussed in the paper. Our analysis indicates that countries with suitable resources producing leading elite Olympic athletes are predicted to achieve higher success in sports with a lower noise-factor such as swimming. In contrast, investments in noisy sports, such as e.g., modern pentathlon, are associated with a higher risk.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48183658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-09-21DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00023
Aneta Kosztowniak
{"title":"Reinvestment of earnings in Polish FDI inflows","authors":"Aneta Kosztowniak","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00023","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The aim of this paper is to diagnose the cause-and-effect relationships between reinvestment of earnings (RoE) and other components of FDI inflows and GDP in Poland in the years of 2004–2019, using the VECM model**. Changes in the structure of FDI inflows in Poland are in line with the stages of the FDI life cycle. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of these investments is also accompanied by an increase in the impact and the degree of explanation of changes in GDP. Studies confirmed that changes in the structure of FDI in Poland was adequate to the theoretical cycle of FDI life. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of FDI inflows is accompanied by a decrease in equities. The VECM model, impulse response function and decomposition analysis confirmed that among FDI components mainly equities, and next, RoE have large participation in the degree of explanation of GDP. In the short-term, mainly equity has the most important impact on GDP, and additionally, RoE. In the long-time, the importance of equity decreases, while increases the impact of RoE, and also, debt instruments. The increase in the share of RoE in the structure of FDI inflows accompanied by the increase in the impact of these investments on GDP changes.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42786738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-06-23DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00010
B. Dallago, S. Rosefielde
{"title":"A flexible and concerned European Union – A new proposal","authors":"B. Dallago, S. Rosefielde","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00010","url":null,"abstract":"The paper proposes the construction of a multi-speed, multi-track and multi-level European Union framework as a way to increase the flexibility of the integration process and facilitate inter-country conflict resolution. The paper shows that this malleable framework is superior, even for sensitive macroeconomic spillover issues like monetary union and immigration.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44323521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-06-23DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00011
Ömer Yalçinkaya, A. Çelik
{"title":"The impact of fundamental uncertainties on economic growth","authors":"Ömer Yalçinkaya, A. Çelik","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00011","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the impact of fundamental (economic, political and geopolitical) uncertainties on GDP growth of the world’s largest 20 economies (W-20) using the Cobb-Douglas total production function within the scope of the second-generation panel data methodology for 1990–2016. The aim of the paper is to explore whether these uncertainties lead to a contractionary impact on growth as suggested by the economic theory. The estimation results revealed that indeed this was the case. Our results also indicate that the global uncertainties led the economic growth rates of the selected countries to perform below their exact potential since the 2008 global economic crisis and to fail to attain an expected recovery during the process.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44375511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Acta OeconomicaPub Date : 2021-06-23DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00012
É. Voszka
{"title":"The dynamics of state ownership: The decisive role of crises","authors":"É. Voszka","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00012","url":null,"abstract":"The big waves of change in state ownership in the 20th-century Europe moved in the same direction ‒ either nationalization or privatization. Yet this homogeneity has fallen apart in the last decade: globally and within several countries, the two directions have changed quickly or even have been appearing in parallel. So, it is worth returning to the question: what is the reason for these reversals? Are there any cycles in the extension and contraction of public ownership? Most studies in this field analyse nationalizations and privatizations separately. They examine closely the aims and motivations, but remarkably few focuses on the causes of changes in direction. Based on the lessons of these latter analyses, this paper attempts to interpret the expansion and contraction of public property within an integrated framework, identifying the emergency situations as key factors of fluctuation. The central role of crises in ownership changes is not fundamentally new in the literature. The novelty of the recent approach is the attempt to unfold the mechanism of their impact, including also the explanation why the previously uniform direction of big waves has been broken up after 2008. We argue that the main reason behind the parallel occurrence of large-scale nationalizations and privatizations in this period is the eclipse of a dominant economic-policy (and theoretical) paradigm, rendering the previously firm background of ownership waves uncertain.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46852412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}