Ayhan Tecel, Salih Katircioğlu, Elham Taheri, Festus Victor Bekun
{"title":"Causal interactions among tourism, foreign direct investment, domestic credits, and economic growth: evidence from selected Mediterranean countries","authors":"Ayhan Tecel, Salih Katircioğlu, Elham Taheri, Festus Victor Bekun","doi":"10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the nexus between tourism and economic growth in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea while controlling for foreign direct investment and domestic credits as additional variables within a multivariate panel framework. Empirical evidence is based on annual data from 1995 to 2016 for a panel of 14 selected countries around the Mediterranean Sea region. The findings from the bootstrap panel cointegration test proposed by Westerlund (2007) confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables under inspection. Subsequently, the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL) estimations suggest positively significant relationships between tourism and economic growth both in short-term, and long-term periods. Thus, this study joins the group of studies that lend support to the tourism-led growth hypothesis. This result was further substantiated by the results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality analysis, as feedback causality was observed between tourism and economic growth, while unidirectional causality was seen from foreign direct investment to economic growth. That is in support of the foreign direct investment-driven economic growth hypothesis. Strikingly, no causal relationship was observed between domestic credits and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital","authors":"T. Ziesemer, Anne von Gässler","doi":"10.1007/s10258-020-00176-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00176-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"20 1","pages":"129 - 160"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s10258-020-00176-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46331340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new career in a new town. Job search methods and regional mobility of unemployed workers","authors":"Andrea Morescalchi","doi":"10.1007/s10258-020-00175-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00175-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Labour mobility is critical for adjusting imbalance between local labour markets. Yet, labour markets appear still very localized. Existing studies on job search report that the choice of search methods influences job outcomes, with social contacts accounting for a substantial fraction of job matches. Whether search methods are conducive to local or national jobs has not been examined yet. This paper establishes a link between job search and regional mobility, investigating the impact of search methods on unemployment exits within and across local labour markets. The effect of search methods is estimated by a Propensity Score Matching approach, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results show that only direct approach to employers enhances the job hazard with regional move. Conversely, social contacts and advertisements are found to increase the hazard to local employment, although the effect of social contacts wears off as the unemployment spell prolongs. No impact is found by Employment Agencies on either exit. These findings suggest that the widespread use of social contacts, while enhancing job matches in the local labour market, might contribute to restrict labour mobility. Therefore, they bear support to policies promoting diffusion and efficacy of alternative methods, particularly when the target is long-term unemployment. Results also point out the opportunity of reforms of the job search assistance and placement service offered by Employment Agencies, taking these limitations into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"76 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tourism and regional development: a spatial econometric model for Portugal at municipal level","authors":"Luis Delfim Santos, A. C. Vieira","doi":"10.1007/s10258-020-00179-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00179-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"19 1","pages":"285 - 299"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s10258-020-00179-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"52199330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”","authors":"Ahmed Muhamad Omer, M. Yeşiltaş","doi":"10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"19 1","pages":"301 - 322"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s10258-020-00178-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"52199199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of economic policy uncertainty under fractional integration","authors":"Carlos D. Ramirez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3597759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3597759","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most popular measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is an index based on newspapers coverage of particular keywords. The constructed index is often then included in vector autoregression (VAR) models to examine the extent to which EPU affects economic activity. Researchers, however, have not investigated how the possibility of fractional integration in this index may affect the results. Under fractional integration, the effects of EPU on output in a standard VAR setting may be biased. After confirming that all EPU series posted in policyuncertainty.com are fractionally integrated processes, I estimate a fractionally cointegrated VAR (FCVAR) model to evaluate the dynamic effects of EPU. Likelihood ratio tests indicate that fractional cointegration cannot be rejected at low lag orders. In addition, I investigate the effect of EPU on output after applying various filters to remove the long-memory component. While I still find that EPU imparts a negative effect on output, relative to Baker et al. ( 2016 )’s results, the effects tend to be smaller in magnitude. Treating long memory, therefore, is important for accurate estimation of the dynamic effects.","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47718514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}