Ayhan Tecel, Salih Katircioğlu, Elham Taheri, Festus Victor Bekun
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引用次数: 38
Abstract
This study explores the nexus between tourism and economic growth in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea while controlling for foreign direct investment and domestic credits as additional variables within a multivariate panel framework. Empirical evidence is based on annual data from 1995 to 2016 for a panel of 14 selected countries around the Mediterranean Sea region. The findings from the bootstrap panel cointegration test proposed by Westerlund (2007) confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables under inspection. Subsequently, the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL) estimations suggest positively significant relationships between tourism and economic growth both in short-term, and long-term periods. Thus, this study joins the group of studies that lend support to the tourism-led growth hypothesis. This result was further substantiated by the results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality analysis, as feedback causality was observed between tourism and economic growth, while unidirectional causality was seen from foreign direct investment to economic growth. That is in support of the foreign direct investment-driven economic growth hypothesis. Strikingly, no causal relationship was observed between domestic credits and economic growth.
本研究探讨了地中海沿岸国家旅游业与经济增长之间的关系,同时在多变量面板框架内控制外国直接投资和国内信贷作为额外变量。经验证据基于1995年至2016年地中海地区14个选定国家的年度数据。Westerlund(2007)提出的自举面板协整检验结果证实了被检变量之间的长期均衡关系。随后,Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL)估计表明旅游业与经济增长在短期和长期都存在显著的正相关关系。因此,本研究加入了支持旅游带动增长假说的研究小组。Dumitrescu和Hurlin(2012)的因果分析结果进一步证实了这一结果,旅游业与经济增长之间存在反馈因果关系,而外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系。这是对外国直接投资驱动经济增长假说的支持。引人注目的是,国内信贷与经济增长之间没有因果关系。
期刊介绍:
The Portuguese Economic Journal publishes high-quality theoretical, empirical, applied or policy-oriented research papers on any field in economics. We enforce a rigorous, fair and prompt refereeing process. The geographical reference in the name of the journal only means that the journal is an initiative of Portuguese scholars. There is no bias in favour of particular topics and issues.Officially cited as: Port Econ J