{"title":"Dynamic and structure of GDP and investments","authors":"O. Izryadnova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904688","url":null,"abstract":"Internal epidemiological restrictions and external shocks have had a significant impact on economic growth in Russia. Unfavorable changes in the global market environment increased the impact of external factors on economic dynamic: starting from 2019, the scale of exports in terms of value and physical volume decreased;the decline in the contribution of net exports to GDP dynamics was partially offset by an increase in domestic demand on the back of the outstripping growth of manufacturing industry and the segment of paid services to the population. From the outset of the spread of coronavirus infection, there was a simultaneous reduction in demand and supply in the domestic market. The situation was complicated by a drop in demand and prices on the world market of hydrocarbons, which came amid a decline in the ruble exchange rate and an increase in the level of inflation. The negative effects of the uncertainty and potential risks of the pandemic affected the nature of business structures, consumer behavior, and led to changes in the structure of government spending, the corporate sector, households, and the demand for financial resources","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133479904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Balance of Payments in Q2 2021`","authors":"A. Bozhechkova, A. Knobel, P. Trunin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3901423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3901423","url":null,"abstract":"In Q2 2021, the current account balance amounted to $19.9 bn, vs $1.6 bn in Q2 of last year. Russia’s trade balance demonstrated a significant increase relative to Q2 2020. Net capital outflow from the private sector declined on the same period of last year, while the global economy was recovering, and the Bank of Russia was tightening its monetary policy. The regulator continued its foreign currency purchases within the framework of the fiscal rule, which produced an increase in reserve assets by $8.3 bn in Q2 2021. International reserves increased to $591.7 bn. According to the period-end results of Q2 2021, the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar gained 4.4%, rising to Rb72.4.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128063254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, Frederic Martenet, M. Rognlie
{"title":"Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century","authors":"Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, Frederic Martenet, M. Rognlie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906779","url":null,"abstract":"We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. \u0000 \u0000Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131179807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa, Roland Pongou, Jean-Baptiste Tondji
{"title":"A Free and Fair Economy: A Game of Justice and Inclusion","authors":"Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa, Roland Pongou, Jean-Baptiste Tondji","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3893929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3893929","url":null,"abstract":"Frequent violations of fair principles in real-life settings raise the fundamental question of whether such principles can guarantee the existence of a self-enforcing equilibrium in a free economy. We show that elementary principles of distributive justice guarantee that a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists in a finite economy where agents freely (and non-cooperatively) choose their inputs and derive utility from their pay. Chief among these principles is that: 1) your pay should not depend on your name, and 2) a more productive agent should not earn less. When these principles are violated, an equilibrium may not exist. Moreover, we uncover an intuitive condition---technological monotonicity---that guarantees equilibrium uniqueness and efficiency. We generalize our findings to economies with social justice and inclusion, implemented in the form of progressive taxation and redistribution, and guaranteeing a basic income to unproductive agents. Our analysis uncovers a new class of strategic form games by incorporating normative principles into non-cooperative game theory. Our results rely on no particular assumptions, and our setup is entirely non-parametric. Illustrations of the theory include applications to exchange economies, surplus distribution in a firm, contagion and self-enforcing lockdown in a networked economy, and bias in the academic peer-review system.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114834932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Banking Access and Racial Inequality: Wealth and Human Capital Accumulation of Young Men","authors":"Rong Hai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3919250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3919250","url":null,"abstract":"There are large racial differences in access to the financial system among young adults. Lack of access to savings and investment opportunities results in low financial returns on savings. Low returns, in turn, reduce ex-ante incentives to save, work, and invest in human capital. Using a structural model of schooling, labor supply, and savings with unequal financial access and endogenous borrowing constraints, I quantify the effects of racial differences in financial access and labor market discrimination on the observed racial wealth gap. Counterfactual policy experiments suggest that a financial inclusion policy that provides full access increases African American youths’ median net worth level and reduces racial wealth inequality. In comparison, a college tuition reduction policy is less effective in reducing wealth inequality.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126460247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: A Comparison of Sri Lanka and Pakistan","authors":"W. Madhavika","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3886134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3886134","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the strong and the weak relationship between macroeconomic variables and the purchasing power parity of Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Purchasing power parity is compared with the relative price level of identical product available in both countries. This paper includes 20 years of macroeconomic annual data from 1997 to 2016. These data have been analyzed using descriptive statistic, reliability test and time series multiple regression. Result reveals that real exchange rate is not constant in both economies of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and this illustrates Sri Lanka has weak relationship between the purchasing power parity and exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, money supply, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, whereas Pakistan has strong relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables and the purchasing power parity. This study helps enhance knowledge about how purchasing power parity affects the growth of the economies","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124412290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social Inequality from the perspective of the Racial Balance Index","authors":"Sergio Firpo, Michael França, Alysson Portella","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3870828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3870828","url":null,"abstract":"Brazil still has a long way to go in facing its deep social problems. In order to offer a new perspective on Brazilian inequality, this paper proposes to use the Racial Balance Index to reveal where the greatest and worst advances in the direction of racial equity lie. With this index it is possible to identify and monitor racial inequality in socioeconomic variables over time considering the local racial distribution. Thus, this work analyzes racial imbalances, by state and region, present in high schooling, in the elderly population and in groups with higher incomes. As a result, there has been a significant improvement in the educational situation in recent years. The racial imbalance in the population with higher education has decreased considerably. However, this has not yet been reflected in an improvement in racial inequality in earnings and longevity.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"2009 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129499838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring Intergenerational Income Mobility: A Synthesis of Approaches","authors":"Nathan Deutscher, B. Mazumder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3871354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3871354","url":null,"abstract":"The literature on intergenerational income mobility uses a diverse set of measures and there is limited knowledge about whether these measures provide similar information and yield similar conclusions. We provide a framework to highlight the key concepts and properties of the different estimators. We then show how these measures relate to one another empirically. Our main analysis uses income tax data from Australia to produce a comprehensive set of empirical estimates for each of 19 different mobility measures at both the national and regional level. We supplement this analysis with other data that uses either within or between country variation in mobility measures. A key finding is that there is a clear distinction between relative and absolute measures both conceptually and empirically. A region may be high with respect to absolute mobility but could be low with respect to relative mobility. However, within broad categories, the different mobility measures tend to be highly correlated. For rank-based estimators, we highlight the importance of how the choice of the distribution used for calculating ranks can play a critical role in determining its properties as well as affect empirical findings. These patterns of results are important for policy makers whose local economy might fare well according to some mobility indicators but not others. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134091995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income Inequality and the Depth of Economic Downturns","authors":"E. Kohlscheen, Marco J. Lombardi, Egon Zakraǰsek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3853504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3853504","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using an international panel data set, we analyse the implications of rising income inequality for aggregate consumption. We document that greater concentration of (after-tax) income in the top decile is associated with a significantly larger and more persistent contraction in consumption in the aftermath of economic downturns. These findings are consistent with lower propensities to consume among wealthier households and imply that disparities in income flows at turning points of the business cycle can significantly influence macroeconomic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116043604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sulkhan Chavleishvili, S. Fahr, Manfred K. Kremer, S. Manganelli, B. Schwaab
{"title":"A Risk Management Perspective on Macroprudential Policy","authors":"Sulkhan Chavleishvili, S. Fahr, Manfred K. Kremer, S. Manganelli, B. Schwaab","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3850509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3850509","url":null,"abstract":"Macroprudential policymakers assess medium-term downside risks to the real economy arising from financial imbalances and implement policies aimed at managing those risks. In doing so, they face an inherent intertemporal trade-off between the expected growth and downside risks. This paper reviews the literature on Growth-at-Risk, embeds it in the wider literature on macroprudential policy, and proposes an empirical risk management framework that combines insights from the two literatures, by forecasting the entire real GDP growth distribution with a structural quantile vector autoregressive model. It accounts for direct and indirect interactions between financial vulnerabilities, financial stress and real GDP growth and allows for potential non-linear amplification effects. The framework provides policymakers with a macro-financial stress test to monitor downside risks to the economy and a macroprudential stance metric to quantify when interventions may be beneficial.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126263920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}