Comparative Population Studies最新文献

{"title":"Linked Lives across Borders: Economic Remittances to Ageing Parents in Romania","authors":"Ionuț Földes","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2020-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2020-03","url":null,"abstract":"Economic support is widespread among multigenerational Romanian family units separated by national borders and plays an important role for non-migrating family members. From a political economy perspective, remittances are characteristic of such long-term kin networks, which in turn are shaped by socio-structural contexts. This study aims to analyse transfers of remittances in cash and in kind from emigrant Romanian adult children to elderly parents back home. Both forms of upward support are investigated under the lens of family practices across distance. Data from a survey (Intergenerational solidarity in the context of work migration abroad. The situation of elderly left at home) are used to examine the influence on remittances of family commitments over time and of needs and opportunities. The sample includes 2109 parent-child dyads with data provided by elderly parents from all regions of Romania. Results of the logistic regression models show that stronger familial commitments increase the likelihood of remittances in cash and remittances in kind. Findings indicate the importance of filial support before migration and of various forms of intergenerational reciprocity. Our results stress that remittances in cash are more likely to be variable compared with remittances in kind. Both forms of support are part of a much broader set of family practices and intergenerational relationships but express different understandings of filial responsibility.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48728172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The ‘Population Problem’ in Pacific Asia","authors":"J. Cleland","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2020.1720177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720177","url":null,"abstract":"In 2018 total fertility was close to 1.0 in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; it was slightly higher, at 1.3–1.4, in Hong Kong and Japan, and higher again at around 1.6 births per woman in China....","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78879689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analytical Family Demography","authors":"Steve Smallwood","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2020.1720175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720175","url":null,"abstract":"Having reviewed volume 39 of this series (Smallwood 2017), it seems fitting that I should review volume 47, also edited by Robert Schoen, in his fourth outing in that role. The topic of this editio...","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72832881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Hidden Affliction: Sexually Transmitted Infections and Infertility in History","authors":"L. Hall","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2020.1720179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720179","url":null,"abstract":"Infertility is a particularly cryptic issue, even in the present: looked at historically, this is even more the case. While one too often encounters blithe assumptions that in ‘The Past’ women were...","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75069366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis","authors":"Daniel Lois","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2020-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2020-02","url":null,"abstract":"The present study investigates the change of gender role attitudes in Germany between 1982 and 2016. Nine waves of the German General Social Survey are used (N = 26,389). In contrast to previous trend studies, which largely ignore age effects, a mechanism-based age-period-cohort model (Winship/Harding 2008) is applied. It becomes clear that age, period and cohort independently have an impact on gender role ideology. Compared to earlier research, new insights concerning the shape of cohort effects come to light: Specific to traditional gender ideology in Western Germany, it is apparent that the trend towards increasingly egalitarian attitudes comes to a halt in men born around 1956 and later and in women born 1966. For Eastern Germany we observe that the cohort-specific trend towards liberalisation in younger cohorts either is diminishing or even tends to reverse. This pattern of effects mainly mirrors the phases of the feminist movement in Western Germany and the rise and decline of the German Democratic Republic, respectively.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138510289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"German Churches in Times of Demographic Change and Declining Affiliation: A Projection to 2060","authors":"D. Gutmann, Fabian Peters","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2020-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2020-01","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of declining membership in Germany’s churches has been apparent for almost half a century. However, few scientific studies have investigated the respective influences of demographic and church-specific phenomena, as well as the potential impact if present trends continue. To answer these questions, we use a cohort component model and project the membership of each German Catholic diocese and Protestant regional church until 2060. Thus, for the first time we present a projection of church members for each of the 27 Catholic (arch-) dioceses and the 20 Protestant regional churches, as well as for the entire Evangelical Church and the Roman Catholic Church in Germany. We collected data from dioceses, Protestant regional churches and the Federal Statistical Office. Under the assumptions made, the results suggest a continued decline in membership and that by 2060 the number of church members would be half the number of 2017. Protestant Church membership would have shrunk slightly more than Catholic Church membership. We can conclude that church-specific factors (baptisms, leaving, and joining the church) would have a stronger influence on declining numbers than demographic factors. Moreover, demographic change would have a greater impact on registered church membership than on the total population. The proportion of Christians in the population would sharply decrease. Although in 2017 54.4 percent of the population belonged to one of the two major churches, according to the projection model, only 31.1 percent would be church members in 2060. As our results are not predictions but projections using trend analysis, we show how changed conditions would affect the projected development in five scenarios.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45600622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Dementia and Extremity Injuries on the Plasticity of Long-term Care Demand: An Analysis of Counterfactual Projection Scenarios Based on German Health Insurance Routine Data","authors":"Alexander Barth","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2019-19EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2019-19EN","url":null,"abstract":"Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47397272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Dementia and Extremity Injuries on the Plasticity of Long-term Care Demand: An Analysis of Counterfactual Projection Scenarios Based on German Health Insurance Routine Data","authors":"Alexander Barth","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2019-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2019-19","url":null,"abstract":"Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138510286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates","authors":"Andrea Monti, Sven Drefahl, Eleonora Mussino, J. Härkönen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage—individuals registered but not living in a country—is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77367648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments","authors":"J. Raymer, Qing Guan, R. Norman, W. Ledger, G. Chambers","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461","url":null,"abstract":"This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization. The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78373668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}