Comparative Population Studies最新文献

{"title":"Why Do Young Adults Retreat from Marriage? An Easterlin Relative Income Approach","authors":"G. Mavropoulos, Theodore Panagiotidis","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-03","url":null,"abstract":"Easterlin’s relative income hypothesis refers to the current income of young adults compared to the level of material aspirations acquired during childhood. The hypothesis implies that young individuals are expected to reduce fertility if their material aspirations grow at a higher rate than their incomes. This paper examines whether the same hypothesis holds true for marriage. A higher (lower) level of income combined with a lower (higher) level of material aspirations would increase (decrease) relative income and consequently could affect marriage rates. Thus, relative income might be one explanation for the “marriage paradox” which indicates that young adults in the United States retreat from marriage despite perceiving it as a milestone of their lives. One might also expect relative income to be a better predictor of marriage than absolute income. This is because, according to the Easterlin hypothesis, the behaviour of young adults reflects not only their response to changes in external conditions (e.g. absolute income), but also to past events they have experienced. \u0000We employ panel dynamic methods and causality tests for the United States that span the period from 1981 to 2016. Empirical analysis supports the relative income hypothesis. Causality tests indicate that the relationship runs mostly from relative income to marriage rather than the other way round. Relative income emerges as a stronger predictor than absolute income in all of the methods employed.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49268750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Internal Migration, Living Close to Family, and Individual Labour Market Outcomes in Spain","authors":"Clara H. Mulder,Isabel Palomares-Linares,Sergi Vidal","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2022-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2022-01","url":null,"abstract":"Migration is often viewed as a way to enhance occupational careers. However, particularly in Mediterranean countries, labour market outcomes may also depend on local family resources. We investigate how men’s and women’s labour market outcomes differ between (1) those who migrated and those who did not; and (2) those who live close to family and those who live farther away. Our main contributions are the investigation of the association between migration and labour market outcomes in a different context than the more commonly studied Northern and Western European countries and the United States, and of the role of living close to family in labour market outcomes. We used a sample of labour market participants from the “Attitudes and Expectations About Mobility” survey, conducted in Spain in 2019. Our results show that the likelihood of being a professional is greater for women who migrated than for those who did not, and that the likelihood of being unemployed or in a temporary job is lower for women who live close to family than for those who do not, but neither association was found for men. The finding for living close to family is in line with the notion that nearby family may protect women in particular from precarious labour market positions. The finding for migration differs from previous findings for Northern and Western Europe and the United States, which indicate that migration is beneficial to men in particular. This difference might be specific to a low-migration context, but data limitations prevent firm conclusions.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decrease in Life Expectancy in Germany in 2020: Men from Eastern Germany Most Affected","authors":"M. Luy, M. Sauerberg, Magdalena M Muszyńska-Spielauer, Vanessa di Lego","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-20","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic caused an increase in mortality in 2020 with a resultant decrease in life expectancy in most countries around the world. In Germany, the reduction in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2020 was comparatively small, at -0.20 years. The decrease was stronger among men than among women (-0.24 vs. -0.13 years) and in eastern rather than in western Germany (-0.36 vs. -0.16 years). Men in eastern Germany experienced the biggest decline in life expectancy at birth (-0.41 years). For western German men, the decline was less pronounced (-0.19 years). Among women, the decline in life expectancy at birth was also greater in eastern (-0.25 years) than in western Germany (-0.10 years). As a result of these developments, the differences in life expectancy between the two parts of Germany, and between women and men, increased compared with the previous year. Life expectancy at age 65 decreased more strongly than life expectancy at birth for both sexes and in all regions. This reflects the fact that it was mainly older age groups that were affected by the increase in mortality in 2020. This paper provides further insights into mortality changes in 2020, based on age decomposition and an analysis of lifespan inequality. We conclude that the population in eastern Germany was hit harder by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than the population in the western Germany.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44930182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe: How Do the Low-Educated Fare?","authors":"Natalie Nitsche,Anna Matysiak,Jan Van Bavel,Daniele Vignoli","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-19","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research suggests that the fertility-education relationship may be mediated by the educational attainment of the partner, especially among the tertiary-educated. However, there are no studies focusing on the couple-education-fertility nexus among couples who achieved only basic educational attainment, even though resource pooling theory predicts differences in family formation by couples’ joint levels of socio-economic resources. We address this research gap and investigate how educational pairings among married and cohabiting partners relate to second and third birth transitions across 22 European countries, using data from the EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) panel and discrete time event history models. Our findings show significantly lower second and third birth transition rates among homogamous low-educated couples compared to heterogamous couples with one low- and one medium or highly-educated partner in the Nordic countries, but not across the rest of Europe. However, couples with one or two low-educated partners have significantly lower second birth rates compared with couples with two highly-educated partners in all European regions.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial on the Special Issue “The identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research”","authors":"J. Huinink, J. Brüderl","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-17","url":null,"abstract":"Explaining demographic behaviour and population change means identifying the causal mechanisms which “drive” them over time. Based on theoretical modelling and guided by empirical fi ndings in prior studies, demographic and social research pursues the improvement of knowledge about those mechanisms and the relationships between the involved factors. In demography, as in the social sciences in general, theoretical and methodological advancements over the past 50 years have greatly contributed to accomplishing this goal. Methods of longitudinal data collection as well as individualand multilevel longitudinal data analysis have gained relevance. This trend was paralleled by the development of the life course perspective in the social sciences and conceptual refi nements in cohort analysis in demographic research. Meanwhile, collecting and analysing longitudinal data is a standard procedure in individualand multi-level demographic research. Many studies using this methodological inventory have been conducted, enriching our knowledge on individual decision-making and behaviour considerably. Compared to crosssectional data, longitudinal data signifi cantly improve the conditions for identifying the “true” effects of underlying causal mechanisms. While retrospective information is already of great use, prospective panel designs enable a more appropriate and manifold collection of relevant information, as well as more refi ned statistical modelling of the interdependence between individual behaviour, its dispositional and motivational drivers, its situational conditions, and its outcomes over time. Panel data are also useful for another prominent class of methods, i. e. techniques of event history analysis (Blossfeld/Rohwer 2002; Kreyenfeld 2021). In this Special Issue of Comparative Population Studies, we review the degree to which methodological innovations in panel studies have been useful in properly identifying causal mechanisms in the study of demographic behaviour, and ultimately population change. In the fi rst contribution, methodological issues of panel data analysis are discussed and illustrated by the example of estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. The next four articles address the core question of the Special Issue with regard to major fi elds of demographic research: Comparative Population Studies Vol. 46 (2021): 487-502 (Date of release: 24.11.2021)","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41917279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender Role Attitudes and Parents’ Intention to Continue Childbearing in Turkey","authors":"Serap Kavas","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-18","url":null,"abstract":"It is increasingly acknowledged that gender (in-) equality is one of the most significant factors underlying change in fertility behavior. Researchers have extensively studied the link between gender (in-) equality and fertility decision-making in various settings. However, most of these studies have focused on industrialized countries in North America, Europe, and East Asia, while very few examine this relationship in a non-western, developing country context. Employing individual-level survey data, this paper examines the relationship between parents’ gender role attitudes and their fertility intentions for an additional child in urban Turkey, surveyed in 2014. The findings of this study show that parents’ attitudes toward gender roles were not an important predictor of fertility decision-making in Turkey. This study suggests that the lack of significant findings supporting the expected association may be related to the measurement of gender role attitudes, suggesting a need to construct a measure that addresses culture-specific aspects of gender roles. This study contributes to the literature by providing a new data point, Turkey, and bringing a comparative perspective to the existing research.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66518415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What You Need to Know When Estimating Impact Functions with Panel Data for Demographic Research","authors":"Volker Ludwig, J. Brüderl","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-16","url":null,"abstract":"The estimation of impact functions – that is the time-varying causal effect of a dichotomous treatment (e.g., marriage, divorce, parenthood) on outcomes (e.g., earnings, well-being, health) – has become a standard procedure in demographic applications. The basic methodology of estimating impact functions with panel data and fixed-effects regressions is now widely known. However, many researchers may not be fully aware of the methodological subtleties of the approach, which may lead to biased estimates of the impact function. In this paper, we highlight potential pitfalls and provide guidance on how to avoid these in practice. We demonstrate these issues with exemplary analyses, using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) study and estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. \u0000  \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47328465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects","authors":"A. Validova","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-15","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49572317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fertility of Roma Minorities in Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"L. Szabó, I. Kišš, B. Šprocha, Z. Spéder","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-14","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse Roma fertility in four neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe with a large Roma minority: in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Serbia. The sources of data are the respective national population censuses from 2011. Fertility is measured at the birth cohort level as the average number of children ever born. We make an international comparison of the fertility of Roma and non-Roma majority population women on the basis of completed education. In the case of Hungary, we also explore how the correlation between fertility and ethnic identity is modified when completed education and ethnic residential segregation are controlled. \u0000The fertility of Roma women is far above the majority population average in all birth cohorts and in each country. Educational attainment modifies this relationship. The fertility of highly educated Roma and majority population women is converging. The exposure to majority behaviour also has an effect. The lower the level of ethnic residential segregation, the smaller the difference between the fertility of Roma and majority population women. Completed education and residential segregation may exert different forces at the two ends of the educational hierarchy when their joint effect is explored. At the upper end of the social hierarchy, neither segregation nor ethnicity matters; at the lower end, however, both exposure to ethnic majority behaviour and ethnicity matter.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46869960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causal Modelling in Fertility Research: A Review of the Literature and an Application to a Parental Leave Policy Reform","authors":"M. Kreyenfeld","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-10","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews empirical studies that have examined the causal determinants of fertility behaviour. In particular, we compare the approaches adopted in the different disciplines to improve our understanding of how birth dynamics are influenced by changes in female employment and changes in family policies. The wide array of panel data that have become available in recent years provide great potential for advanced causal modelling in this field. Event history modelling has been a dominant approach in sociology and demography. However, researchers are increasingly turning to other methods to unravel causal effects, such as fixed-effects modelling, the regression discontinuity approach, and statistical matching. We summarise selected studies, and discuss the advantages and the shortcomings of the different approaches. In an empirical section, we analyse the impact of the German 2007 policy reform on birth behaviour to illustrate the difficulties involved in isolating policy effects. The final chapter concludes by underscoring that even simple modelling strategies may be beneficial for improving our understanding of how policy effects shape demographic behaviour, and for laying the groundwork for more fine-grained causal investigations. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48249137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}