{"title":"Weather Derivative Pricing and the Normal Distribution: Fitting the Variance to Maximise Expected Predictive Log-Likelihood","authors":"S. Jewson, Jeremy Penzer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.911569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.911569","url":null,"abstract":"The normal distribution is commonly used to predict weather indices when pricing weather derivatives. The standard method for making such predictions involves calculating an unbiased estimator for the population variance. The variance of the prediction (the predictive variance) is then the unbiased estimator for the population variance with an adjustment to account for sampling error on the mean. This is not, however, the only way to model the predictive variance, and it is not necessarily the best way. We investigate an alternative method, based on adjusting the predictive variance so as to maximise the expected predictive log-likelihood. For the small sample sizes often used in weather derivative pricing the resulting predictive variances are significantly larger than those calculated using the standard method.","PeriodicalId":444809,"journal":{"name":"Risk Factors in Asset Returns","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128422099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interpersonal Communicational Manipulations","authors":"Ș. Vlăduțescu, X. Negrea, D. Voinea","doi":"10.18662/po/2014.0504.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18662/po/2014.0504.04","url":null,"abstract":"Manipulation is a form of persuasive influence. According to the criterion of the influence type, persuasion is interpersonal, group or collectively-social. By derivation and according to the criterion of the target, in our opinion, manipulations may be of three types: interpersonal manipulations (when the target is one individual), group manipulations (when the target is a group) and social-collective manipulations (when the target represents a large community). We consider as interpersonal communicational manipulations: foot in the door, door in the face, and law-balling.","PeriodicalId":444809,"journal":{"name":"Risk Factors in Asset Returns","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124383352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}