{"title":"Fostering Long-term Investment and Economic Growth Summary of a High-Level OECD Financial Roundtable","authors":"Gert D. Wehinger","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW1XLR7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW1XLR7","url":null,"abstract":"As the OECD is celebrating its 50th anniversary, member countries are exiting from the biggest post-war financial and economic crisis and are trying to put their economies back onto strong, sustainable footing. While financial reforms should provide for a better, more sustainable balance between stability and growth, measures to strengthen the savings-investment channel should foster sustainable growth and development. These issues were explored at a High-Level OECD Financial Roundtable and are summarised in this article. Covered are the topics of financial reform to foster stability and long-term growth, the contribution of institutional investors to long-term growth, and creating a better environment for the financing of business innovation and green growth. With strained public sector finances, private capital needs to fill the funding gap for infrastructure and other long-term projects. Appropriate regulatory incentives to overcome short-termism, as well as risk-sharing arrangements e.g. via publicprivate partnerships, are needed in order to encourage market-based, long-term investment and risk capital financing. Better transparency, information and investor education can also play a role in enhancing long-term savings and investment.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114687901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economic Impact of Protracted Low Interest Rates on Pension Funds and Insurance Companies","authors":"P. Antolín, Sebastian Schich, Juan Yermo","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW0M56L","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW0M56L","url":null,"abstract":"A period of protracted low interest rates is a feasible, even if not the most likely, scenario going forward and such a scenario would adversely affect pension funds and insurance companies. Protracted low interest rates affect investment opportunities and have a potentially significant adverse effect on life insurance companies and institutions whose liabilities consist of a fixed investment return or benefit promises, such as is the case for defined-benefit pension funds. It cannot be ruled out that the financial institutions affected engage in “gambling for redemption” in an attempt to match the level of return promised to beneficiaries when financial markets were more elevated.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129215419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global SIFIs, Derivatives and Financial Stability","authors":"A. Blundell-Wignall, P. Atkinson","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW0QSBV","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2011-5KG55QW0QSBV","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (GSIFIs) and the global derivatives business. The derivatives business has grown exponentially versus global GDP in sharp contrast to the primary securities on which derivatives are based. Inter-connectedness risk and unconstrained potential leverage remain the most urgent tasks still facing the financial reform process. Concentrated oligopolistic derivatives markets and the ability of banks to shift promises and/or use their IRB models to estimate ex-ante risk capital – capital that might be needed in the event of a crisis – undermine the intent of financial reform. Nor do netting and clearing eliminate aggregate risk of losses and bankruptcy. The paper repeats the need to implement two of the OECD’s long-standing reform recommendations: a binding leverage ratio based on equity and the separation of high risk investment banking activities from traditional banking. A derivatives transactions tax is also put forward as a possible option that would counter the cross-subsidisation of risk from the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) problem.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127366095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing the Labour, Financial and Demographic Risks to Retirement Income from Defined-Contribution Pensions","authors":"P. Antolín, S. Payet","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z23FR5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z23FR5","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of labour, financial and demographic risks on retirement income from DC pension plans, with a special emphasis on labour-market risk. It uses a stochastic model that incorporates uncertainty about returns on investment, inflation, discount rates, life expectancy, employment prospects and real wages. The analysis herein highlights that labour-market risk, as well as uncertainty about returns on investment and inflation, have the largest impact on retirement income. The results suggest that default life-cycle investment strategies that reduce exposure to risky assets in the last decade before retirement are quite helpful in reducing the risk of sharp reductions in retirement income, in particular when a negative shock to equity markets occurs in the years before retiring. However, life-cycle strategies fail to address issues of retirement income adequacy or smooth out the volatility in retirement income from DC pension plans.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124617890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sovereign Debt Challenges for Banking Systems and Bond Markets","authors":"Gert D. Wehinger","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGK9QPP5BG5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGK9QPP5BG5","url":null,"abstract":"Discussions at the October 2010 OECD Financial Roundtable conveyed a rather sombre view regarding the current outlook and risks, heightened by financial sector weaknesses, ongoing deleveraging and sovereign debt. Policy makers should be prepared for downside risks to materialise along the way to recovery. Low interest rates and low returns pose specific challenges for institutional investors. While sovereign risk is currently a major concern, its measurement is rather complex and markets do not always provide proper guidance. Sovereign ratings can serve as a useful point of reference but should be made more forward-looking and less procyclical. Should default or debt restructuring become necessary, strong political backing can minimise its costs. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was seen as helpful in providing a backstop. Some optimism was expressed as to the current fiscal adjustments underway to bring public finances back onto a sustainable path. Banking sectors remain fragile, especially in Europe, where, however, the transparency provided by recent stress tests has calmed some fears. Reactivating the wholesale markets for bank funding will be essential going forward. Capitalisation of the US banking sector has improved, but pockets of risk remain in exposures to commercial property by regional and small banks. Contingent convertible (bail-in) bonds could become a useful instrument for sharing the costs of crises, but they need to be made attractive for investors. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, G32, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129219703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Second Corporate Governance Wave in the Middle East and North Africa","authors":"Alissa Koldertsova","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z1JW7K","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z1JW7K","url":null,"abstract":"Ten years ago, corporate governance was a nascent concept in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This article charts the evolution of corporate governance across the MENA region over the past decade – as a concept and in practice – and proposes potential avenues for future work in this area. Initial interest in corporate governance in the region was propelled by the drive to attract foreign investment and the increasing development of local capital markets. A second wave now appears to be forming and its results will depend largely on the capacity of national regulators to enforce existing corporate governance provisions. JEL Classification: G03, G34 Keywords: corporate governance, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), corporate governance code, security regulators, hawkamah","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123384782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook No.3","authors":"H. Blommestein, Eylem Vayvada Derya, P. Flores","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGK9QPNFZWH","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGK9QPNFZWH","url":null,"abstract":"OECD governments are facing ongoing challenges in the markets for government securities as a result of continued strong borrowing amid concerns about the pace of recovery and sovereign risk. The third OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook† Raising large volumes of funds at lowest cost, with acceptable roll-over risk, remains a great challenge for several countries, with most OECD debt managers continuing to rebalance the profile of debt portfolios by issuing more long-term instruments and moderating bill issuance. provides revised estimates for 2010 and projections for 2011. Gross borrowing needs of OECD governments are expected to reach almost USD 17.5 trillion in 2010, up from an earlier estimate of almost USD 16 trillion. In 2011, the borrowing needs of OECD sovereigns are projected to reach almost USD 19 trillion, nearly twice that of 2007. Against this backdro,p government debt ratios are expected to further deteriorate. An additional challenge for government issuers is how to deal with the complications generated by the pressures of a rapid increase in sovereign risk, whereby “the market” suddenly perceives the debt of some sovereigns as “risky”. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G18, H6, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: sovereign borrowing, public deficits and debt, roll-over risk, sovereign risk.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123672094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Challenges and Developments in the Financial Systems of the Southeast Asian Economies","authors":"T. Shimada, Ting Yang","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z277LN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z277LN","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the economies and financial systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) and focuses on challenges and developments in the region. Despite the diversity of SEA economies and some important exceptions, most of them are relatively small but growing strongly. Financial deepening differs among SEA economies. Yet in general, equity markets have grown rapidly and bond markets slowly. The main vulnerabilities of the SEA economies stem from volatile capital flows as well as from decreases in export demand. As a result of national and regional policy responses to the Asian Crisis of 1997/98, the soundness of banking systems has improved, and frameworks to deal with foreign currency liquidity problems and to develop bond markets have been established. Due to these efforts, SEA economies have shown considerable resilience during the current global financial and economic crisis. In some economies, macro-prudential measures may have contributed to this resilience. Capital flows during the current crisis have reminded regional authorities of the risks inherent in these flows. Remaining issues for policy makers to consider are the risks presented by the expanding business activities of banks in the capital and real estate markets, and increasing the participation of SMEs and households in the financial system. JEL Classification: F30, F32, F55, G01, G15, G18, G28, N45 Keywords: Southeast Asia, capital flows, financial crises, financial development, international bond markets","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"375 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120863022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Market Perspective on the European Sovereign Debt and Banking Crisis","authors":"A. Blundell-Wignall, Patrick Slovik","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z2HM9R","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z2HM9R","url":null,"abstract":"Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114677458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risks in Financial Group Structures","authors":"S. Lumpkin","doi":"10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z2F0G0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/FMT-2010-5KGGC0Z2F0G0","url":null,"abstract":"This article looks at the types of risks that may be associated with complex financial groups and then sifts through the weight of the evidence in favour of, and against, the various alternatives used to address those risks. The conclusion drawn is that there is no magic bullet among the available policy options that is sufficient on its own to satisfy the three core policy objectives (i.e. safety and soundness, systemic stability, and conduct of business). Rather, this article argues that the greater financial and economic impacts associated with problems at larger institutions requires a holistic approach that combines transparency, governance, regulation and supervision. JEL Classification: G01, G18, G02, G03, G28, G32. Keywords: financial groups, safety and soundness, systemic stability, contagion, governance, supervision and regulation, market discipline.","PeriodicalId":444795,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Financial Market Trends","volume":"212 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115584994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}