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Estructura y evolución de ingresos tributarios y beneficios fiscales en México. Análisis del periodo 1990-2019 y evaluación de la reforma fiscal de 2014 墨西哥税收收入和税收优惠的结构和演变。1990-2019年分析与2014年税制改革评价
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-04-02 DOI: 10.20430/ETE.V88I350.1104
S. J. L. López Pérez, Xavier Vence
{"title":"Estructura y evolución de ingresos tributarios y beneficios fiscales en México. Análisis del periodo 1990-2019 y evaluación de la reforma fiscal de 2014","authors":"S. J. L. López Pérez, Xavier Vence","doi":"10.20430/ETE.V88I350.1104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ETE.V88I350.1104","url":null,"abstract":"La estructura y la tendencia del sistema fiscal reflejan la orientación del modelo de desarrollo que ha seguido México y determinan su modelo futuro y su capacidad para hacer frente a los retos de la sociedad (desarrollo, equidad, bienestar, sostenibilidad ambiental, etc.). El objetivo de este trabajo es conocer la dimensión relativa, la estructura por impuestos y las tendencias de la recaudación tributaria, así como la naturaleza y los objetivos de los incentivos y los beneficios fiscales en vigor en México en los últimos años. Este ejercicio permite evaluar la reforma hacendaria de 2014 con la perspectiva de los seis años transcurridos y formula los retos futuros. Se utilizó un enfoque descriptivo y cualitativo con base en los datos obtenidos del Centro Interamericano de Administraciones Tributarias (CIAT), la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE) y la Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP). Se analizan la estructura de la recaudación tributaria centrada en los principales impuestos federales, así como el volumen y la composición del gasto fiscal, al desglosar los incentivos y los beneficios fiscales existentes sobre cada uno de los impuestos. Los principales resultados indican una evolución pasiva en el poder de recaudo de 12.5% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en 1990 a 15.6% en 2019, apoyado principalmente en los impuestos al consumo, el impuesto sobre la renta salarial y una fuerte dependencia del sector de hidrocarburos. Se muestra que algunos de los objetivos declarados de la reforma —aumentar de forma significativa la capacidad recaudatoria y reducir la multitud de incentivos y beneficios fiscales— apenas se han cumplido. Para concluir, se formulan algunos retos que debería afrontar una reforma fiscal para la inclusión, la equidad y la sostenibilidad.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"373-417"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44133023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
La duración en el mercado de vivienda nueva construida por desarrolladores en México 墨西哥开发商建造的新住房市场的持续时间
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-04-02 DOI: 10.20430/ETE.V88I350.700
C. Zamora, A. Ramírez
{"title":"La duración en el mercado de vivienda nueva construida por desarrolladores en México","authors":"C. Zamora, A. Ramírez","doi":"10.20430/ETE.V88I350.700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ETE.V88I350.700","url":null,"abstract":"En el presente artículo estudiamos la duración en el mercado de las viviendas nuevas construidas por desarrolladores en México entre 2013 y 2015. En particular, se analiza si las características físicas de la vivienda, el estado en el que se localizan, la fecha en que fueron puestas a la venta, la duración de la construcción, el precio inicial, el tamaño de la empresa desarrolladora y el tamaño del conjunto habitacional tienen algún efecto sobre la duración de las viviendas en el mercado. Utilizamos un modelo de análisis de supervivencia de Cox. Los resultados más importantes indican que la posibilidad de que se venda una vivienda decrece conforme pasa el tiempo y, en general, es menor para las viviendas de mayor precio, las de mayor tamaño, las que tomaron más tiempo en construirse, así como aquellas en conjuntos habitacionales más pequeños y construidas por empresas desarrolladoras de menor tamaño.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"551-582"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46708879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Derrames de la inversión extranjera directa y su efecto en las exportaciones: una aplicación empírica en un país emergente 外国直接投资溢出及其对出口的影响:新兴国家的经验应用
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-04-02 DOI: 10.20430/ETE.V88I350.862
Ramón Javier Mesa, Cristina Villar, José Pla-Barber
{"title":"Derrames de la inversión extranjera directa y su efecto en las exportaciones: una aplicación empírica en un país emergente","authors":"Ramón Javier Mesa, Cristina Villar, José Pla-Barber","doi":"10.20430/ETE.V88I350.862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ETE.V88I350.862","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates, for the first time in the Colombian case, the indirect effects of spillovers from foreign direct investment (fdi) on the exports of national companies. At an empirical level, we used a convenience sample made of 32 exporting companies, 14 foreign affiliates, and 18 domestic companies, which maintained continuity at about 60% of the total value of the national exportable supply in the 20072016 period. By using a panel of data with fixed effects, we show that the positive effects of the inflow of fdi on the export of local companies are more associated with reaction mechanisms for the protection of their international markets from the so-called competition effect, and not with the export learning processes due to the knowledge, the technology, and the experience that foreign companies possess.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"455-482"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46552316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cambio en la estructura productiva, 1995-2011: China versus México 1995-2011年生产结构的变化:中国与墨西哥
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1010
G. Rodríguez
{"title":"Cambio en la estructura productiva, 1995-2011: China versus México","authors":"G. Rodríguez","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1010","url":null,"abstract":"This paper performs a comparative analysis of the Chinese and Mexican production structures, through a descriptive study and using the methods of structural analysis on input-output tables of 1995 and 2011. During this period, the average annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth in China amounted to 9.18%, while in Mexico it reached only 0.95%. Assuming that China’s growth has been successful in this sense, then a mayor conclusion from this paper is that if Mexico wishes to reach high growth rates, the main element potentially useful to elaborate an efficacious strategy from China’s experience is clear: To foster, from a proactive participation of the state, the development of key sectors which will constantly increase their multiplier effects, so that a mayor integration of the national economy is achieved, and the development and consolidation of the productive apparatus sufficient to support the generation of next-generation productive sectors.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"107-141"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42752188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Una medida global de gobierno abierto para la OCDE. Recomendaciones para España 经合组织的全球公开政府措施。对西班牙的建议
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.907
Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego, Laura Nieto-Torrejón, María Concepción Pérez-Cárceles
{"title":"Una medida global de gobierno abierto para la OCDE. Recomendaciones para España","authors":"Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego, Laura Nieto-Torrejón, María Concepción Pérez-Cárceles","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.907","url":null,"abstract":"Different international organizations and national governments are promoting the adoption of open government strategies. There are rankings to measure the evolution of some of its dimensions, but there is a gap of indicators comprising open data, transparency, participation and collaboration simultaneously. In this paper we propose the Open Government and Participation Index (OGPI), based on previous academic works, to compare open government strategies over time and among different countries. The index, which weighs different open government dimensions, is built for a sample of 33 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from open and consistent sources. The results show that the areas of transparency and open data have a wide room for improvement and that participation and collaboration strategies require an autonomous approach. By region, open government is more developed in the Commonwealth countries, while those in Eastern Europe present the lowest level of implementation.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"219-245"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43860503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Trabajo garantizado y política salarial para reducir la pobreza en México 墨西哥有保障的工作和工资政策以减少贫困
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1064
Bruno Sovilla, Elmar Morales Sánchez, Karina Guadalupe Gómez Méndez
{"title":"Trabajo garantizado y política salarial para reducir la pobreza en México","authors":"Bruno Sovilla, Elmar Morales Sánchez, Karina Guadalupe Gómez Méndez","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1064","url":null,"abstract":"Because the labor market in southwest Mexico is very different from that in the north, a given wage policy may affect the two markets quite differently. It is shown that the southwest’s high level of labor informality will not only prevent a minimum-wage increase from addressing that region’s high level of poverty effectively, but will actually worsen Mexico’s unequal territorial distribution of income. Therefore, we maintain that, under the current conditions of the country’s labor market, saying that the existing policy of increasing the minimum wage will reduce both poverty and inequality amounts to a contradictio in adiecto. Such a policy will continue to be self-contradictory until it considers implementing, as well, a job guarantee policy.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"5-37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41544112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pemex, su reestructuración corporativa, financiera y productiva, y los efectos de ésta sobre la balanza comercial petrolera 墨西哥国家石油公司，其公司、金融和生产重组及其对石油贸易平衡的影响
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1005
Francisco A. Martínez Hernández, Saúl Herrrera Aguilar
{"title":"Pemex, su reestructuración corporativa, financiera y productiva, y los efectos de ésta sobre la balanza comercial petrolera","authors":"Francisco A. Martínez Hernández, Saúl Herrrera Aguilar","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1005","url":null,"abstract":"In this investigation we show how the different energy reforms that have been implemented in Mexico, by gradually linking the price of domestic fuels to international market prices and to the domestic tax structure, have tended to distort the domestic price and production of gasoline, all of which has been inclined to decapitalize Pemex, to reduce domestic refining capacity, and to accelerate the amount of gasoline imports. This investigation is divided in four sections. The first analyzes the evolution of both the organization and the business model of Pemex, where a criteria of economic efficiency, openness and increasing dependence on private capital currently predominate. The second studies the intra-organism prices and the factors that have generated distortions in the components of these prices. The third is dedicated to the analysis of the most important components of the country’s oil trade balance. From this analysis and with econometric models, we obtained two estimates of the changes in income and price elasticities of demand for oil imports. The fourth section presents the final reflections with the objective of proposing energy policy alternatives applicable to the reality facing the country.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"143-180"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45296452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Theotonio Dos Santos (1936-2018): intelectual revolucionario y pionero de la teoría de la dependencia 西奥托尼奥·多斯桑托斯（1936-2018）：革命知识分子和依赖理论的先驱
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1211
C. Kay
{"title":"Theotonio Dos Santos (1936-2018): intelectual revolucionario y pionero de la teoría de la dependencia","authors":"C. Kay","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1211","url":null,"abstract":"Este artículo analiza los orígenes y el desarrollo de la teoría de la dependencia a través de la vida y la obra de Theotonio Dos Santos, los cuales se indagan en sus años de formación en la academia y su temprano activismo político en Brasil, en particular, su paso por la Universidad de Brasilia junto a Vania Bambirra, Ruy Mauro Marini y André Gunder Frank (“el cuarteto”). A esto le sigue una discusión sobre sus años de exilio en Chile, donde el cuarteto se reagrupó en el Centro de Estudios Socio-Económicos (CESO) de la Universidad de Chile, y donde escribió sus textos fundacionales sobre la teoría de la dependencia. Chile proporcionó un terreno fér­til para el desarrollo de esta teoría por su clima intelectual, institucionalidad y las transformaciones políticas del país a fines de la década de los sesenta y comienzos de la de los setenta. El derrocamiento militar del gobierno de Allende, ese fatídico 11 de septiembre de 1973, obligó al cuarteto una vez más al exilio. El artículo continúa con un análisis de los escritos de Dos Santos durante su exilio en México y luego de regreso en Brasil. Durante este periodo se involucró con la teoría del sistema mundial, que culminó con la publicación de su extensa trilogía sobre la crisis contemporánea del capitalismo y la teoría social.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"277-320"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42700191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
¿A qué se llama y con qué fin se critica al capitalismo? 它被称为什么，被批评的目的是什么?
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1207
E. Altvater
{"title":"¿A qué se llama y con qué fin se critica al capitalismo?","authors":"E. Altvater","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1207","url":null,"abstract":"Con base en una célebre frase del filósofo Friedrich Schiller respecto de la historia universal, Elmar Altvater se pregunta de manera homónima sobre el capitalismo y reflexiona sobre la importancia de criticarlo. Analiza las transformaciones de este sistema económico desde que se originó en el siglo XVIII y aborda críticamente su funcionamiento actual, así como las consecuencias que ha tenido, en particular su falta de sostenibilidad en un mediano plazo. Plantea la vital importancia de que este sistema no únicamente se estudie desde la economía, sino desde una perspectiva multidisciplinaria que incluya otras ciencias sociales, como la política y la sociología, además de las ciencias naturales, con el fin de abarcar al capitalismo desde todos sus ángulos y abrir espacio para nuevas ideas.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"323-341"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48994546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024 2020-2024年墨西哥中性利率和货币政策
IF 0.4 4区 经济学
Trimestre Economico Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002
Amando Sánchez Vargas, Débora Martínez Ventura, Francisco López-Herrera
{"title":"Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024","authors":"Amando Sánchez Vargas, Débora Martínez Ventura, Francisco López-Herrera","doi":"10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002","url":null,"abstract":"Given the uncertainty in this regard, this paper analyzes the most appropriate monetary policy position for Mexico, which aims to maintain the inflation objective without negatively affecting product growth. The value of the neutral interest rate in Mexico for the next five years is estimated based on Taylor’s rule and a co-integrated vector autoregression (VAR) model (CVAR). The results suggest that the monetary policy rate is above the neutral interest rate, which, combined with the potential international rate cut, could grant the central bank for almost the entire six-year period a degree of freedom to maintain its rate below the current level; in the short term the current monetary policy rate could be cut by at least 25 points without risking convergence to the inflation target.","PeriodicalId":44464,"journal":{"name":"Trimestre Economico","volume":"88 1","pages":"201-218"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45047998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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