C. Wieser, M. Bruhn, Johannes Philipp Kinzinger, Christian Simon Ruckteschler, Soren Heitmann
{"title":"The Impact of Mobile Money on Poor Rural Households: Experimental Evidence from Uganda","authors":"C. Wieser, M. Bruhn, Johannes Philipp Kinzinger, Christian Simon Ruckteschler, Soren Heitmann","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8913","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of rolling out mobile money agents in rural Northern Uganda. In a randomized experiment, 168 areas were randomly selected to receive an agent in 2017, with another 163 areas serving as a control group. Administrative data on mobile money transactions suggest that the agent rollout increased the probability of sending and receiving peer-to-peer transfers. Data from a 2018 survey of more than 4,500 households show that the agent rollout led to cost-savings for remittance transactions. It also doubled the nonfarm self-employment rate, from 3.4 to 6.4 percent, and reduced the fraction of households with very low food security from 62.9 to 47.2 percent, in areas far from a bank branch. The analysis finds no effect on savings, agricultural outcomes, or poverty. Overall, the findings add new evidence that mobile money can improve livelihoods even in poor and remote settings.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"7 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134035003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Better Policies from Policy-Selective Aid?","authors":"K. Annen, Stephen F. Knack","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8889","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The increased policy selectivity of aid allocations observed in recent years provides aid-recipient countries with an incentive to improve policies. The paper estimates that a change in the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment policy index from 1.5 to 2 for a recipient is associated with an increase of about 13 percent in aid. The analysis also finds a modest but statistically significant positive relationship between the global level of policy-selective aid and policy, suggesting that policy-selective aid improves policies in aid-recipient countries. This effect is properly identified, as the level of policy-selective aid in the global aid budget is exogenous to a recipient country’s policy choice. Furthermore, the paper provides a game-theoretic model that establishes the link between the policy selectivity of the global budget and better recipient-country policies in equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122696888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jun Erik Maruyama Rentschler, M. Obolensky, Martin Kornejew
{"title":"Candle in the Wind? Energy System Resilience to Natural Shocks","authors":"Jun Erik Maruyama Rentschler, M. Obolensky, Martin Kornejew","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8897","url":null,"abstract":"This study finds that natural shocks -- storms in particular -- are a significant and often leading cause for power supply disruptions. This finding is based on 20 years of high frequency (i.e. daily) data on power outages and climate variables in 28 countries -- Bangladesh, the United States and 26 European countries. More specifically: (1) Natural shocks are the most important cause of power outages in developed economies. On average, they account for more than 50 of annual outage duration in both the US and Europe. In contrast, natural shocks are responsible for a small share of outages in Bangladesh, where disruptions occur on a daily basis for a variety of reasons. (2) Outages due to natural shocks are found to last significantly longer than those due to non-natural shocks in -- e.g. more than 4.5 times in Europe. Reasons include the challenge of locating wide-spread damages, and the sustained duration of storms. (3) Several factors can reinforce the adverse effect of natural shocks on power supply. In the US, forest cover is shown to significantly increase the risk of power outages when storms occur. (4) There are significant differences in network fragility. For instance, wind speeds above 35 km/h are found to be 12 times more likely to cause an outage in Bangladesh than in the US. This difference may be explained by a range of factors, including investments in infrastructure resilience and maintenance.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127460162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patricia Jones, Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, T. Mengistae, Albert G. Zeufack
{"title":"Market Size, Sunk Costs of Entry, and Transport Costs: An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of Demand-Side Factors versus Supply-Side Factors on Manufacturing Productivity","authors":"Patricia Jones, Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, T. Mengistae, Albert G. Zeufack","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8875","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses plant-level, panel data from the Ethiopian manufacturing census to estimate the effects of demand-side and supply-side factors on industrywide aggregate productivity. The paper focuses on the effects of three factors: (1) local market size, (2) the value of transportation costs that firms incur in selling to customers outside their market, and (3) licensing fees needed to enter the market. Identification is based on a model of production under monopolistic competition, which enables interpreting the estimated coefficients of a reduced form, dynamic productivity equation. The paper analyzes 11 industries in Ethiopia over 2000 to 2010. Several interesting results emerge. In the most parsimonious specification, the estimated coefficients are consistent with all three predictions of the model—but only for one industry: cinder blocks. In this industry, the expansion of the local market boosts industrywide total factor revenue productivity, while increases in transport costs and licensing fees reduce it. The picture is somewhat mixed in the other 10 industries but broadly consistent with the predictions of the model.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133976733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Migration and Jobs: Issues for the 21st Century","authors":"L. Christiaensen, Alvaro S. Gonzalez, D. Robalino","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8867","url":null,"abstract":"With an estimated 724 million extreme poor people living in developing countries, and the world's demographics bifurcating into an older North and a younger South, there are substantial economic incentives and benefits for people to migrate. There are also important market and regulatory failures that constrain mobility and reduce the net benefits of migration. This paper reviews the recent literature and proposes a conceptual framework for better integration and coordination of policies that can address the different market and regulatory failures. The paper advances five types of interventions in need of particular attention in design, implementation, and evaluation; namely, (1) active labor market programs that serve local, regional, and foreign markets; (2) remittances and investment subsidies to promote job creation and labor productivity growth; (3) social insurance programs that cover all jobs and facilitate labor mobility; (4) labor taxes to internalize the social costs of migration in receiving regions; and (5) more flexible private sector driven schemes to regulate the flow of migrants and minimize irregular migration.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123237980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence","authors":"Lelys Dinarte, Pablo Egana-delSol","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8862","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides experimental evidence of the impact of an after-school program on vulnerable public-school students in El Salvador. The program combined a behavioral intervention with ludic activities for students aged 10-16 years old. The authors hypothesize that it affects violence, misbehaviors, and academic outcomes by modulating emotional regulation or automatic reactions to external stimuli. Results indicate the program reduced reports of bad behavior and school absenteeism while increasing students’ grades. Neurophysiological results suggest that the impacts on behavior and academic performance are driven by the positive effects of the program on emotional regulation. Finally, the study finds positive spillover effects for untreated children.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117184752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Maliszewska, Jakob Engel, G. Arenas, Barbara R. Kotschwar
{"title":"Small African Economies in a More Uncertain Global Trade Environment: The Potential Impact of Post-Agoa Scenarios for Lesotho","authors":"M. Maliszewska, Jakob Engel, G. Arenas, Barbara R. Kotschwar","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8861","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a forward-looking view of trade and its relevance for Lesotho’s medium- and long-term development. It does this through computable general equilibrium analysis of potential impacts based on specific trade-related scenarios. The scenarios include the potential loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences and preference erosion against competitors through, for example, a United States–Vietnam Free Trade Area. An immediate loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences would have a significant economic impact that far exceeds that of a potential future United States–Vietnam Free Trade Area. If these preferences were suspended in 2018, Lesotho would face a loss of 1 percent in income by 2020, relative to the baseline, and exports of textiles and apparel would drop by 16 percent. The computable general equilibrium simulations stress the need to strengthen efforts to support structural transformation leading to diversification of export products and markets, improving backward and forward linkages, and lowering trade costs. The simulations also indicate that trade facilitation measures leading to an average decrease in trade costs of 2 percent per year would eliminate the negative consequences of the loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences in terms of the loss of income. The changing external environment is likely to offer new opportunities to Lesotho's export industries in the medium term, including through regional integration under the Continental Free Trade Area.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126065945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fredrik M. Sjoberg, Jonathan Mellon, T. Peixoto, J. Hemker, Lily L. Tsai
{"title":"Voice and Punishment: A Global Survey Experiment on Tax Morale","authors":"Fredrik M. Sjoberg, Jonathan Mellon, T. Peixoto, J. Hemker, Lily L. Tsai","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8855","url":null,"abstract":"An online survey experiment spanning 50 countries finds sizable improvements in tax morale when (a) the salience of anti-corruption efforts is increased and (b) citizens are allowed to voice their expenditure preferences to the government. These results hold very broadly across a uniquely large and diverse sample of respondents from all continents. The findings are consistent with theories emphasizing the role of democratic accountability, as well as of perceptions of legitimacy and \"retributive justice,\" in generating voluntary tax compliance. Implications and avenues for further research are discussed.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114983356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Combining Growth and Gender Diagnostics for the Benefit of Both","authors":"Elena Ianchovichina, Danny M. Leipziger","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8847","url":null,"abstract":"Women's economic empowerment is not a new issue; nevertheless, it continues to challenge governments and development assistance agencies. One of the reasons for this hurdle may well be that gender advocates and growth devotees are speaking different languages when there is a huge space for them to collaborate effectively and pursue both agendas simultaneously. This paper outlines a framework for gender-enhanced growth diagnostics that can be used to identify win-win solutions based on policies that target jointly the binding constraints to economic growth and those limiting female economic participation. The welfare gain from such a reform surpasses the gain from a pro-growth reform addressing only the binding constraint to growth or that from a pro-gender reform aimed at closing gender gaps. Using Turkey's country growth diagnostics and data on gender gaps, the paper uses the approach to identify those constraints to women's economic empowerment that align with national growth priorities and may therefore gain greater traction with policy makers.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129446978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Changing Pattern of Returns to Education: What Impact Will this Have on Inequality?","authors":"H. Patrinos","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8866","url":null,"abstract":"The pattern of economic rates of return to investments in education can help us to understand the benefits of schooling. It was common knowledge that the returns to education were highest for the primary level of education and lower for subsequent levels. Recent evidence suggests that the pattern has changed. Since the 1980s, the returns to schooling overall have increased. The returns to higher education have increased the most. The fact that the more educated have improved their position, despite an increase in their numbers, must mean that the demand for more educated workers has increased more than supply over time, causing an increase in the overall returns to schooling. Possible reasons include technological change favoring higher-order skills, increased coverage at lower levels of schooling, and the quality of schooling.","PeriodicalId":444500,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"200 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122439003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}