{"title":"Multilateral Maritime Exercises, Grand Strategy, and Strategic Change: The American Case and Beyond","authors":"Peter Dombrowski, Simon Reich","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Military exercises are largely overlooked by scholars of international security, despite the fact that exercise planning, execution, and analysis represent a huge investment of any military’s energy. Nonetheless, they offer the possibility of a rich research program about what states prioritize and how they adjudge their relationship to other state and non-state actors. We examine the role that multilateral maritime exercises (MMEs) play in the implementation of grand strategy in three regions—Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Our central proposition is that as American policymakers and military leaders’ perception of a strategic threat increases, the purpose, numbers, and participants in MMEs will change. MMEs will move from a focus on peacetime operations to those designed for military crisis response or management, or for preparation for war.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141353431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trust at Risk: The Effect of Proximity to Cyberattacks","authors":"Miguel Alberto Gomez, Ryan Shandler","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Proximity is a core feature of theories of political violence, with the effects of attacks rippling outward so that geographically proximate individuals experience more severe effects than those more distant. However, this model of proximity and exposure is unlikely to recur for cyberattacks. The incorporeality of cyber incidents and the absence of a physical epicenter constrain the mechanism coupling physical distance with harm. To empirically test the relationship between proximity and cyberattacks, we conducted a field study involving 707 German respondents following a ransomware attack in Düsseldorf. We find that the classical “ripple effect” is reversed, with political trust highest among people closer to the attack and lowest among those geographically distant. We postulate that in the absence of firsthand exposure to its effects, geographically distant individuals employ abstract conceptions of the consequences of cyber incidents that do not align with actual events. Consequently, distance does not confer security, and it can even amplify the adverse effects of exposure. This finding highlights the need for governments to actively work to assuage public fears following cyberattacks.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140249462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do States Really Sink Costs to Signal Resolve?","authors":"Dan Altman, Kai Quek","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Sinking costs to signal resolve has become a vital part of how the field of international relations (IR) understands crisis bargaining. The logic of a resolved state “burning money” to distinguish itself from an unresolved state is well established in theory. But do states choose to sink costs and burn money in practice? We address the question on two fronts. First, we collect and analyze the examples of sinking costs in the mainstream IR literature. We find almost no clear-cut cases of sunk-cost signals. Second, we argue that this is because states typically prefer other signaling strategies. Rather than burning money, states can expend those resources more constructively. In particular, states can invest in improving the probability of victory in war (“balance tilting”), or they can downpay the costs of war. We conclude that balance tilting and downpaying costs plausibly explain a great deal of state behavior in peacetime, in crises, and even in wartime.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140395326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contested Legitimating Agents: The Regional “Battle” for Legitimacy in Venezuela","authors":"Daniel F Wajner","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Practitioners, pundits, and scholars increasingly recognize the role that international organizations play in conflicts. Regional organizations (ROs), as brokers of collective security, welfare, and identity, have become particularly active agents during violent crises by granting legitimacy to certain protagonists and discrediting the legitimacy of others, thus affecting international policymaking. However, existing research generally assesses the legitimizing effects of ROs in either a static way, in which the stances of their member states do not change over time, or in an institutional vacuum, where ROs are not challenged by other ROs. This study aims to shed light on the impact of multiple ROs dynamically and simultaneously intervening in legitimation struggles. It focuses on the 2014–2020 regional “battle” over the legitimate authority of the Chavista–Madurista regime in Venezuela, examining how multiple Latin American ROs articulated their discourse seeking to influence the crisis’ outcomes. To this end, a multi-step process tracing based on four phases (opening, deliberation, judgment, and denouement) is applied. The findings reveal the lively competition between involved actors for the recognition of ROs as the relevant legitimating agents, and the limits faced in achieving collective action when polarization over such a regional legitimating role prevails. The study has novel implications for scholarly understanding of the role of legitimation dynamics in promoting international cooperation during periods of disruption.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140511698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Digital Rights and the State of Exception. Internet Shutdowns from the Perspective of Just Securitization Theory","authors":"Johannes Thumfart","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogad024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogad024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Addressing cases from Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Spain, Togo, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Zimbabwe, this article discusses the global phenomenon of internet shutdowns (ISs) from the normative perspective of Just Securitization Theory (JST). It focuses on the conflict between arguments used to justify ISs and the negative impact of ISs regarding fundamental and human rights. This article develops strict criteria for when ISs might be legitimate as extraordinary security measures in emergency situations. Following JST, these criteria are based on citizens’ right to physical integrity, the expectation of reasonable success, proportionality, harm minimization, and specificity. I argue that it is not legitimate to use ISs to enact collective punishment, preemptive censorship, or hamper legitimate political protests. While denying the legitimacy of the vast majority of ISs on these grounds, I sketch four exceptional scenarios (“WhatsApp lynchings,” “US Capitol 2021,” “Computer virus,” and “False alarm”) in which ISs can be legitimate. JST also includes states’ duty to desecuritize once a threat has been neutralized. In this way, a balanced discussion of ISs as an exceptional measure from the perspective of JST contributes to the establishment of a customary positive human right to digital connectivity in the normal situation.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139444133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Savun, Jessica A Stanton, C. Hartzell, Lindsay Reid
{"title":"Violence beyond the Battlefield: Civilian Targeting, Sexual Violence, and Women’s Political Empowerment","authors":"B. Savun, Jessica A Stanton, C. Hartzell, Lindsay Reid","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Research has established links between intrastate conflict and political gains by women following war, suggesting that changes of a positive nature can emerge from the misery of war. While much of the empirical focus on conflicts’ transformative effects has been on battle-related violence, we investigate whether pro-social effects are associated with two other types of violence perpetrated against civilians—one-sided violence and sexual violence. We expect that both one-sided violence and sexual violence spur mobilization, which in turn contributes to gains in women’s political empowerment. Informed by feminist scholarship, we also draw attention to social and political constraints associated with high levels of sexual violence, restrictions that we argue women are unlikely to confront to a similar degree with respect to high levels of one-sided and other forms of violence. We posit that these factors will result in the attenuation of gains in women’s political power in conflicts characterized by high levels of sexual violence. Using cross-national data on civil conflicts for the period 1989–2017, we find that moderate levels of sexual violence are consistently associated with gains in women’s political empowerment, an effect that diminishes in conflicts marked by widespread sexual violence. One-sided violence, on the other hand, is not associated with improvements in women’s political empowerment. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the different forms of wartime violence, and the differential impacts these forms of violence have on women.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140511590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Geopolitics and Genocide: Patron Interests, Client Crises, and Realpolitik","authors":"Sascha Nanlohy","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogad023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogad023","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Genocide is a catastrophic event in international relations. States that experience genocide often have powerful external patrons that influence its likelihood. Yet, the external dynamics of genocide are often overlooked. This paper examines the constraining or enabling role of external patrons and what motivates their decisions. This research theorizes that patron states can permit or restrain genocide, depending on their interests in the client state. The study uses a qualitative comparative case analysis to focus on the role of patron military assistance, comparing genocide in Rwanda (1990–1994), and the role of France with the high-risk non-genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh (1991–1994) and Russian support to Armenia. I argue that patron actions can be understood through the prism of great or regional power competition and are generally determined by motivations conforming to a logic of realpolitik; the prospect of loss of influence significantly affects the likelihood of genocide. These processes can be observed through variations in patron military assistance and patterns of violence. A better understanding of these dynamics is critical to the study of international relations and international security, with policy implications for atrocity prevention in a period of intensifying great power competition.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139441410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conscription and Gender in Mass Opinion on Foreign Affairs: South Korean Views of North Korea","authors":"Joonbum Bae, YuJung Julia Lee","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogad025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogad025","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 How does military conscription influence mass opinion on foreign affairs? Is gender relevant for the impact compulsory service has on public opinion? Leveraging South Korea's mandatory military service for men and fluctuations in inter-Korea relations from 2003 to 2018, we assess conscription's impact on South Korean opinions of North Korea. We rely on the random nature of a child's gender, given the number of children in a family, to infer the effect of conscription on the views of parents via a “son effect.\" While the gender and foreign policy opinion literature suggests that female aversion to the costs of conflict can result in positive views toward an adversary, we find that the high costs of conscription result in mothers of sons subject to military service holding more negative and hostile perceptions of North Korea compared to women with no sons as well as men. We do not find such differences between fathers of sons and men without sons.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139535289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Politics of Risking Peace Revisited: The Fate of Rebel Leaders Who Signed Peace Agreements","authors":"Juliana Tappe Ortiz","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Are rebel leaders punished for signing peace agreements? Many studies have found that leaders face domestic punishment for signing peace agreements. However, while this may be true for state leaders, it remains unclear whether this is also the case for rebel leaders. Between 1975 and 2018, I describe what happened to the rebel leaders who signed a peace agreement. One-third of rebel leaders in these countries experienced exile, imprisonment, or unnatural death, while the rest shifted to politics or pursued rebellion. I describe two prototypical life paths after peace agreements of former rebel leaders in Colombia and Niger: the unpunished and the punished. This study shows how the database of rebel leader attributes (ROLE) can be advanced with novel data, enabling the kinds of studies on rebel leaders that scholars have conducted on state leaders in international politics. Future studies should extend research on rebel leader characteristics and peace negotiations.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140511853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Better to Trust in the Lord? Religious Salience, Regime Religiosity, and Interstate Dispute Resolution","authors":"Ariel Zellman, Florian Justwan, Jonathan Fox","doi":"10.1093/jogss/ogae003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 How do religiously salient issues influence the peaceful resolution of interstate territorial disputes? Conflict scholars tend to represent “religious” disputes as uniquely resistant to compromise owing to their supposed symbolic indivisibility and the ideological inflexibility of the actors who pursue them. Rather, we argue that religious regimes’ preferred forums to advance peaceful resolution depend upon interactions between the breadth of a dispute’s religious salience and a claimant regime’s domestic religious legitimacy. Secular regimes lack both religious legitimacy and political motivation to engage. Thus, their dispute resolution forum preferences are unrelated to religious salience. Highly religious regimes command significant religious legitimacy and are therefore empowered to directly negotiate over broadly salient religious issues. Yet their political dependence upon religious constituencies causes them to strictly avoid legally binding conflict management over narrowly salient religious issues. By contrast, moderately religious regimes lack sufficient religious legitimacy to directly negotiate over both broadly and narrowly salient issues, rendering them particularly dispute-resolution avoidant. We test and generally confirm these propositions, utilizing new data measuring the religious salience of interstate territorial disputes in the post-Cold War era.","PeriodicalId":44399,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Security Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140511936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}