EURO Journal on Decision Processes最新文献_第10页

Dynamic risk analysis for operational decision support 动态风险分析，支持运营决策

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0067-y

Stein Haugen , Nathaniel John Edwin

{"title":"Dynamic risk analysis for operational decision support","authors":"Stein Haugen , Nathaniel John Edwin","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0067-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0067-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Quantitative risk assessments for offshore oil and gas installations have been developed and used to support decision making about major hazards risk for more than 30 years. Initially, these studies were used to support the design process, aiming to develop installations that could be operated safely throughout their lifetime. As installations were put into operation, the studies were updated with as-built and operational information to provide a basis for making decisions also in the operational phase. This was however only partially successful, and the general impression has been that the studies have not been very actively used in operations. Many explanations have been given, the most common being that the reports were too complicated and written for risk analysis experts, not operations personnel on offshore installations and that the results could not be updated sufficiently often to reflect changes in risk on a day-by-day basis. This may be a part of the explanation, but in this paper, we have looked into the decision context and the types of decisions made in operation, compared to those in the design phase. Based on this, it is concluded that the focus of existing models need to be extended to cover activity risk in a more detailed way, as well as the risk associated with the technical systems. Instead, a revised methodology for developing quantitative risk assessments is proposed, focusing on the parameters and activities that change during operation. The methodology has also been tested on an offshore installation, to investigate the feasibility in practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0067-y","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46561940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

On how to manage uncertainty when considering regulatory HSE interventions 在考虑监管HSE干预措施时，如何管理不确定性

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0073-0

Leif Inge K. Sørskår , Eirik B. Abrahamsen

引用次数: 3

Supporting the multi-criteria decision aiding process: R and the MCDA package 支持多标准决策辅助过程:R和MCDA包

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0064-1

Sébastien Bigaret , Richard E. Hodgett , Patrick Meyer , Tatiana Mironova , Alexandru-Liviu Olteanu

{"title":"Supporting the multi-criteria decision aiding process: R and the MCDA package","authors":"Sébastien Bigaret , Richard E. Hodgett , Patrick Meyer , Tatiana Mironova , Alexandru-Liviu Olteanu","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0064-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0064-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reaching a decision when multiple, possibly conflicting, criteria are taken into account is often a difficult task. This normally requires the intervention of an analyst to aid the decision maker in following a clear methodology with respect to the steps that need to be taken, as well as the use of different algorithms and software tools. Most of these tools focus on one or a small number of algorithms, some are difficult to adapt and interface with other tools, while only a few belong to dynamic communities of contributors allowing them to expand in use and functionality. In this paper, we address these issues by proposing to use the R statistical environment and the MCDA package of decision aiding algorithms and tools. This package is meant to provide a wide range of MCDA algorithms that may be used by an analyst to tailor a decision aiding process to their needs, while the choice of R takes advantage of the yet poorly explored opportunity to interface data analysis and decision aiding. We additionally demonstrate the use of this tool on a practical application following a well-defined decision aiding process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0064-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48574408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 30

Improving safety of DP operations: learning from accidents and incidents during offshore loading operations 提高DP作业的安全性:从海上装载作业中的事故和事件中学习

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0072-1

Yining Dong , Jan Erik Vinnem , Ingrid Bouwer Utne

{"title":"Improving safety of DP operations: learning from accidents and incidents during offshore loading operations","authors":"Yining Dong , Jan Erik Vinnem , Ingrid Bouwer Utne","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0072-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0072-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The risk caused by DP vessels in offshore marine operations is not negligible, due to wide applications of DP vessels in complex marine operations, and the sharp increase of DP vessel population. The DP accidents/incidents on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) that have occurred after 2000 indicate a need for improving safety of DP operations, which calls for new risk reduction measures. The focus of this paper is particularly on the offshore loading operations with DP shuttle tanker in offloading from floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels on the NCS, but the results may be relevant also for other types of DP vessels in offshore oil and gas operations. In the paper, Man, Technology and Organization (MTO) analysis is applied to investigate the cause and barrier failures of nine reported accidents/incidents occurring over a 16-year period (2000–2015). MTO is based on three methods, including structured analysis by use of an event- and cause-diagram, change analysis by describing how events have deviated from earlier events or common practice, and barrier analysis by identifying technological and administrative barriers which have failed or are missing. The results are categorized into technical failures, human failures, organizational failures, as well as a combination of failures. The main finding is that the majority of the accidents are caused by the combination of technical, human and organizational failures. Critical root causes, results of change analysis and barrier analysis, and combination of failures are focused in the discussion. Recommendations of potential safety improvements are made on the aspects of the assessment of the actual system function, barrier management for marine systems, risk information to support different decision-makings, and the development of an on-line risk monitoring and decision supporting system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0072-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49366857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas 相关不确定性下决策敏感性的copula分析

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0071-2

Tianyang Wang , JamesS. Dyer , Warren J. Hahn

{"title":"Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas","authors":"Tianyang Wang , JamesS. Dyer , Warren J. Hahn","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0071-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0071-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many important decision and risk analysis problems are complicated by dependencies between input variables. In such cases, standard one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analysis methods are typically eschewed in favor of fully probabilistic, or <em>n</em>-way, analysis techniques which simultaneously vary all <em>n</em> input variables and capture their interdependencies. Unfortunately, much of the intuition provided by one-way sensitivity analysis may not be available in fully probabilistic methods because it is difficult or impossible to isolate the marginal effects of the individual variables. In this paper, we present a dependence-adjusted approach for identifying and analyzing the impact of the input variables in a model through the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on copulas. This approach provides insights about the influence of the input variables and the dependence relationships between the input variables. One contribution of this approach is that it facilitates assessment of the relative marginal influence of variables for the purpose of determining which variables should be modeled in applications where computational efficiency is a concern, such as in decision tree analysis of large-scale problems. In addition, we also investigate the sensitivity of a model to the magnitude of correlations in the inputs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0071-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43283748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Reliability, risk and safety: analytical support for decision making 可靠性、风险和安全性:为决策提供分析支持

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0074-z

Lesley Walls , Tim Bedford , Matthew Revie , Enrico Zio

引用次数: 0

Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: quasi-optimality of reactive decision-making based planning 灾后城市社会技术系统的恢复:基于规划的反应性决策的准最优性

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0066-z

Vasily Lubashevskiy , Takeru Suzuki , Taro Kanno , Kazuo Furuta

{"title":"Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: quasi-optimality of reactive decision-making based planning","authors":"Vasily Lubashevskiy , Takeru Suzuki , Taro Kanno , Kazuo Furuta","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0066-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0066-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present work is devoted to the problem of city recovery management after a large scale disaster. A modern city is represented as a complex urban socio-technical system consisting of three interdependent parts: a physical lifeline system, citizens’ daily life demand, and service systems. The functioning of the last two ones directly depends on the connectivity of the physical lifelines. In cases when all the consequences of a large scale disaster are known and the system damage can be evaluated withing high accuracy researches in the field of recovery of socio-technical systems mainly use different optimization methods of recovery plan generation using various objective functions. However, the recovery of urban socio-technical system in the case of non-reliable information requires another approach. At the initial time moment collecting the information about the system state can be hindered by many causes and possible cascading failures in the infrastructure system lead to the reassessment of the city damage. The applicability of an optimization technique to the recovery management in such cases is rather troubled. The process of recovery planning should be very adaptive to such changing conditions. We developed a method of recovery management based on the reactive decision-making. It uses the step-by-step realization logic which can be applied to the recovery management under significant information uncertainties. In the present paper, we summarize the basic logic of the novel method, results of numerical simulation that demonstrate its applicability to the recovery management in cases of initial lack of information. Besides, the comparison of this approach with the result obtained by the optimization technique demonstrates the quasi-optimality of the reactive decision-making based approach of the city recovery planning.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0066-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44502267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Planning and conducting crisis management exercises for decision-making: the do’s and don’ts 为决策制定计划和执行危机管理练习:该做什么和不该做什么

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-017-0065-0

Tonje Grunnan , Håvard Fridheim

{"title":"Planning and conducting crisis management exercises for decision-making: the do’s and don’ts","authors":"Tonje Grunnan , Håvard Fridheim","doi":"10.1007/s40070-017-0065-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-017-0065-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Organizations exercise to strengthen their crisis management capability, to identify possible improvements to plans, and to develop necessary skills. Taking part in exercises is one way leaders can test their decision-making abilities under emergencies and crises. Crisis management exercises provide arenas for learning and knowledge sharing. This paper discusses how exercises can be performed better and more efficiently. We draw upon practical experiences from 12 table top and functional exercises, involving a variety of military and civilian actors, and we argue that it is possible to improve the planning and conduct of many exercises, leading to more relevant results and greater benefits for the participants. We want to demonstrate that exercises are important tools for decision-making and strategic planning processes within units or organizations. The target audience for the paper is anyone involved in crisis management exercises, from strategic planners and decision-makers to practitioners. The paper identifies practical recommendations for successful crisis management exercises, both discussion-based and operations-based. Learning points are extracted and analyzed with the use of problem structuring methods, resulting in a list of success criteria for crisis management exercises with examples of what works well and what does not.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-017-0065-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43507536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Fuzzy decision making in health systems: a resource allocation model 卫生系统中的模糊决策:一种资源分配模型

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-015-0049-x

Tahir Ekin , Ozan Kocadagli , NathanielD. Bastian , LawrenceV. Fulton , Paul M. Griffin

引用次数: 9

Aligning incentives in health care: a multiscale decision theory approach 调整医疗保健激励:多尺度决策理论方法

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EURO Journal on Decision Processes Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40070-015-0051-3

Hui Zhang , Christian Wernz , Anthony D. Slonim

{"title":"Aligning incentives in health care: a multiscale decision theory approach","authors":"Hui Zhang , Christian Wernz , Anthony D. Slonim","doi":"10.1007/s40070-015-0051-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40070-015-0051-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Financial incentives offered by insurers to health care providers have been identified as a key mechanism to lower costs while improving quality of care. How to effectively design incentive programs that can align the varying objectives of health care stakeholders, as well as predict program performance and stakeholders’ decision response is an unresolved research challenge. The objective of this paper was to establish the foundation for a novel approach based on multiscale decision theory (MSDT) that can effectively model and efficiently analyze such incentive programs, and the complex health care system in general. The MSDT model captures the interdependencies of stakeholders, their decision processes, uncertainties, and how incentives impact decisions and outcomes at the payer, hospital, physician and patient level. We illustrate the modeling approach by applying it to a specific incentive program, the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) for Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), which was introduced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in the United States in 2012. We focus our analysis on computed tomography (CT) use by physicians, and CT scanner investment decisions by hospitals. We determine the conditions under which the incentive program leads to the desired outcomes of cost reduction and quality of care improvements. The results have policy and managerial implications for CMS, ACOs and their members, specifically hospitals and physicians.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44104,"journal":{"name":"EURO Journal on Decision Processes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40070-015-0051-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"52757582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15