灾后城市社会技术系统的恢复:基于规划的反应性决策的准最优性

IF 2.3 Q3 MANAGEMENT
Vasily Lubashevskiy , Takeru Suzuki , Taro Kanno , Kazuo Furuta
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文主要研究大规模灾害后的城市恢复管理问题。现代城市是一个复杂的城市社会技术系统,由三个相互依存的部分组成:物质生命线系统、市民的日常生活需求和服务系统。后两个系统的功能直接取决于物理生命线的连通性。在大规模灾害的所有后果都已知且能够高精度评估系统损害的情况下,社会技术系统恢复领域的研究主要采用不同目标函数的恢复计划生成优化方法。然而,在信息不可靠的情况下,城市社会技术系统的恢复需要另一种方法。在初始时刻,系统状态信息的收集可能会受到多种原因的阻碍,并且基础设施系统中可能出现的级联故障会导致对城市损害的重新评估。在这种情况下,优化技术在恢复管理中的适用性是相当困难的。恢复计划的过程应该非常适应这种变化的条件。提出了一种基于被动决策的恢复管理方法。采用分步实现逻辑,可应用于重大信息不确定情况下的恢复管理。本文总结了该方法的基本逻辑,并通过数值仿真验证了该方法在初始信息缺乏情况下的恢复管理中的适用性。此外,将该方法与优化技术的结果进行了比较,证明了基于被动决策的城市恢复规划方法的准最优性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: quasi-optimality of reactive decision-making based planning

The present work is devoted to the problem of city recovery management after a large scale disaster. A modern city is represented as a complex urban socio-technical system consisting of three interdependent parts: a physical lifeline system, citizens’ daily life demand, and service systems. The functioning of the last two ones directly depends on the connectivity of the physical lifelines. In cases when all the consequences of a large scale disaster are known and the system damage can be evaluated withing high accuracy researches in the field of recovery of socio-technical systems mainly use different optimization methods of recovery plan generation using various objective functions. However, the recovery of urban socio-technical system in the case of non-reliable information requires another approach. At the initial time moment collecting the information about the system state can be hindered by many causes and possible cascading failures in the infrastructure system lead to the reassessment of the city damage. The applicability of an optimization technique to the recovery management in such cases is rather troubled. The process of recovery planning should be very adaptive to such changing conditions. We developed a method of recovery management based on the reactive decision-making. It uses the step-by-step realization logic which can be applied to the recovery management under significant information uncertainties. In the present paper, we summarize the basic logic of the novel method, results of numerical simulation that demonstrate its applicability to the recovery management in cases of initial lack of information. Besides, the comparison of this approach with the result obtained by the optimization technique demonstrates the quasi-optimality of the reactive decision-making based approach of the city recovery planning.

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CiteScore
2.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
15
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