Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice最新文献

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Does the Phillips Curve Exist? Evidence from the Middle East and North African Countries 菲利普斯曲线存在吗?来自中东和北非国家的证据
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0023
M. Azam, Rasheed Khan, Saleem Khan
{"title":"Does the Phillips Curve Exist? Evidence from the Middle East and North African Countries","authors":"M. Azam, Rasheed Khan, Saleem Khan","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study aims to explore the validity of Phillips curve for eight (8) countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), namely Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Malta, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia over the period of 1991–2019. The panel autoregressive distributed lag/pooled mean group (ARDL/PMG) estimation is employed in the study because of the nature of data. The results of ARDL/PMG reveal that there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment rates in the panel of eight MENA countries in the long run, while there is a negative but insignificant relationship between these two variables in the short run. In addition, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment for each of the panel’s countries has also been investigated. The empirical results indicate that there is no trade-off in the short run as the estimated coefficients found are statistically insignificant. Hence, it is concluded that there is no empirical evidence of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment rates in MENA countries.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48526475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Impact of Reserve Option Mechanism on Exchange Rate Volatility During the FED’s Tapering Period 美联储缩减量化宽松期间储备期权机制对汇率波动的影响
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0028
Erkan Demirbaş, Nurettin Can
{"title":"Impact of Reserve Option Mechanism on Exchange Rate Volatility During the FED’s Tapering Period","authors":"Erkan Demirbaş, Nurettin Can","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the effectiveness of ROM. We conducted the GARCH (1,1) Model to determine whether ROM contributed to decreasing the volatility of USD/TL exchange rate for the period 2013-2014. We construct four Models where four different variables are separately used that represent the ROM tool, i.e. the amount of FX reserves of CBRT via ROM, and the share of the FX reserves via ROM in Gross FX Reserves of CBRT. Our findings are convincing to say FX facility and the ratio of utilization for the FX facility to ensure the results are statistically meaningful during this period.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43871565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries 指数理论在利率中的应用——来自后苏联国家的证据
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0018
K. Poghosyan, R. Poghosyan
{"title":"An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries","authors":"K. Poghosyan, R. Poghosyan","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we use index number theory to decompose changes in total interest rate due to changes in the interest rate component and the weight component. We discuss the optimal calculation of a binary index using axiomatic index number theory. Based on this theory we compare alternative indexes and as a result, we choose the Marshall-Edgeworth index because most axioms are satisfied by this index. Comparing the results of binary periods decomposition, we conclude that the differences are not significant when we apply different indices. For multiple period comparison, we suggest using the chain index because it allows accounting for the weights evolution during the whole period. In addition, we derive a formula that could be useful for explaining the differences between chain and direct indexes when we produce multiple period comparison.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41615538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies 汇率在发达和新兴市场经济体货币政策反应函数中的作用评价
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0014
N. Fabris, M. Lazić
{"title":"Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies","authors":"N. Fabris, M. Lazić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The subject of this paper is the evaluation of monetary policy reaction function on panel data of 37 world economies, both advanced and emerging markets, during the period of 1995Q1 – 2018Q3. The paper aims to evaluate the role and importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy reaction function depending on the level of economic development. For this purpose, a relevant set of unbalanced panel data was formed with a balanced relationship between developed and emerging market economies. The methodology of empirical research is based on the econometric assessment of monetary policy reaction function within which the central bank adjusts its key policy rate to the dynamics of inflation, output gap and fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate. The research results confirm the hypothesis that the exchange rate represents a statistically significant variable only in the monetary policy reaction function of emerging market economies. In contrast, adequate specification of developed economies’ monetary policy rule includes only standard macroeconomic fundamentals – inflation and output gap.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42456249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Gold as a Factor of Change in Central Bank Reserves in Periods of the Financial Markets Turbulence: the Case of Kazakhstan 黄金作为金融市场动荡时期央行储备变化的一个因素:以哈萨克斯坦为例
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0020
V. Dodonov
{"title":"Gold as a Factor of Change in Central Bank Reserves in Periods of the Financial Markets Turbulence: the Case of Kazakhstan","authors":"V. Dodonov","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article examines the impact of changes in the gold part of the reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan on their total volume with an emphasis on the factor of changes in the price of gold. The value of the factor of the price of gold increases during periods of global financial crises when Kazakhstan, as an oil exporting country, is under strong pressure on the current account and the exchange rate of the tenge due to a decline in oil prices. During these periods, the National Bank conducts foreign exchange interventions to support the tenge exchange rate and spends its reserves, which increases the relevance of their safety. The paper tests the hypothesis that in such periods, the rise in the price of gold, due to its function as a safe haven asset, can compensate expenditures on foreign exchange interventions for the central banks and increase the stability of reserves. From this point of view, the article examines three periods of high turbulence in world markets of the 2000s and changes in the National Bank’s gross reserves, as well as the influence of the gold factor on these changes. It was revealed that during the crisis periods, the rise in the price of gold contributed to the stability of the gross reserves of the National Bank, and the effectiveness of this factor was directly proportional to the gold share in the reserves.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42329949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Influence of Capital Requirement of Basel III Adoption on Banks’ Operating Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Banks 巴塞尔协议III资本要求对银行运营效率的影响——来自美国银行业的证据
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0011
G. A. Ogunmola, F. Chien, K. Chau, Li Li
{"title":"The Influence of Capital Requirement of Basel III Adoption on Banks’ Operating Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Banks","authors":"G. A. Ogunmola, F. Chien, K. Chau, Li Li","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The United States is recognized as the largest economic entity in the world and its financial system has developed steadily through the guidance of the Federal Reserve System for over one hundred years. However, in recent years, the global economic downturn, coupled with the global COVID-19 pandemic, has led to an unprecedented economic depression and rapid decline in the United States financial sector. Although the U.S. government has gradually instructed banks to raise the core quantity but a giant crisis under the economic depression is still present. This study thus takes U.S. commercial banks as the subject of research and employs the two-stage bootstrapped truncated regression to investigate the impacts of increases in required Core, Tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios on their efficiency.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44817533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries 银行特定因素如何影响不良贷款:来自G20国家的证据
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0015
M. Erdaş, Zeynep Ezanoğlu
{"title":"How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries","authors":"M. Erdaş, Zeynep Ezanoğlu","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Banking is important for the stability and success of the economy. The success of the banking system on financial intermediation in developing countries is directly affected by non-performing loans (NPLs). Many factors can be treated as NPL determinants. Accordingly, the factors that explain NPLs contain very important information for banks. To this end, the study is an attempt to examine various banking factors that affect NPLs with respect to developing economies. In this study, the bank-specific and macroeconomic factors affecting the NPL rates were analysed through the dynamic panel data analysis. Analyses were made using described G20 countries between 1998 and 2017. The results indicate that the lagged value of NPLs, return on equity, credit growth and credit costs have a significant positive relationship with NPLs, while capital adequacy and GDP have a negative association with NPLs. The results confirm that if the bank-specific conditions change, the credit quality and bank management of banks are affected. It was concluded that the performance of banks is responsive to an effective loan monitoring policy. The findings of the study have implications for policymakers and regulators in the banking sector.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44019737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Liquidity Creation: Evidence from MENA Countries 银行流动性创造的银行特定因素和宏观经济因素:来自中东和北非国家的证据
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0013
Anas Alaoui Mdaghri, L. Oubdi
{"title":"Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Liquidity Creation: Evidence from MENA Countries","authors":"Anas Alaoui Mdaghri, L. Oubdi","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study measures liquidity creation within a sample of 153 banks operating in 12 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from 2008 to 2017. We found that these banks created a total of $461.32 billion in liquidity in 2017, approximately 1.51 times the total liquidity created in 2008, mainly driven by commercial banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. We also conducted an econometric analysis to investigate the internal and external factors affecting bank liquidity creation, applying a Fixed Effects model and the new Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The results show that, among bank-specific factors, bank liquidity creation in MENA countries is related to capital, size, bank risk, deposits and profitability whilst market concentration does not appear to play a significant role. Regarding macroeconomic factors, inflation, unemployment, savings and monetary policy explain the variations in bank liquidity creation.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44899738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Adoption of Cloud Services in Central Banks: Hindering Factors and the Recommendations for Way Forward 中央银行采用云服务:阻碍因素和前进道路建议
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0016
Darell Edmond, Vijay Prakash, L. Garg, S. Bawa
{"title":"Adoption of Cloud Services in Central Banks: Hindering Factors and the Recommendations for Way Forward","authors":"Darell Edmond, Vijay Prakash, L. Garg, S. Bawa","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Current research on cloud computing often focuses on the technology itself and the benefits that one company can use and choose from cloud services. Most of the research has focused on mainstream enterprises and limited regard to Central Banks’ (CBs’) Cloud Computing Adoption (CCA). CBs are continually exploring opportunities to enhance IT efficacy while minimizing expenditures and ensuring data protection and network security. This paper investigates the factors affecting the CBs’ CCA by surveying 40 CBs representing approximately 25% of total CBs worldwide. The main participants were senior IT managers who are responsible for any IT decisions in CBs. The findings are also significant for other organizations or businesses where data privacy is crucial. The study results indicate that CBs are still reluctant to migrate to the public cloud. Influential factors preventing CCA are data protection, privacy, and risks.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46602398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptive Early Warning Systems: An Axiomatic Approach 自适应预警系统:一种公理方法
IF 1.4
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017
Diptes C. P. Bhimjee
{"title":"Adaptive Early Warning Systems: An Axiomatic Approach","authors":"Diptes C. P. Bhimjee","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42423341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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