Gold as a Factor of Change in Central Bank Reserves in Periods of the Financial Markets Turbulence: the Case of Kazakhstan

IF 1.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI:10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0020

V. Dodonov

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Abstract

Abstract The article examines the impact of changes in the gold part of the reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan on their total volume with an emphasis on the factor of changes in the price of gold. The value of the factor of the price of gold increases during periods of global financial crises when Kazakhstan, as an oil exporting country, is under strong pressure on the current account and the exchange rate of the tenge due to a decline in oil prices. During these periods, the National Bank conducts foreign exchange interventions to support the tenge exchange rate and spends its reserves, which increases the relevance of their safety. The paper tests the hypothesis that in such periods, the rise in the price of gold, due to its function as a safe haven asset, can compensate expenditures on foreign exchange interventions for the central banks and increase the stability of reserves. From this point of view, the article examines three periods of high turbulence in world markets of the 2000s and changes in the National Bank’s gross reserves, as well as the influence of the gold factor on these changes. It was revealed that during the crisis periods, the rise in the price of gold contributed to the stability of the gross reserves of the National Bank, and the effectiveness of this factor was directly proportional to the gold share in the reserves.

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黄金作为金融市场动荡时期央行储备变化的一个因素:以哈萨克斯坦为例

摘要本文考察了哈萨克斯坦国家银行储备中黄金部分的变化对其总量的影响，重点是黄金价格变化的因素。在全球金融危机期间，黄金价格因素的价值增加，当时哈萨克斯坦作为石油出口国，由于油价下跌，经常账户和坚戈汇率面临巨大压力。在此期间，国家银行进行外汇干预以支持坚戈汇率，并动用其储备，这增加了其安全性。该论文检验了这样一种假设，即在这一时期，黄金价格的上涨，由于其作为避险资产的功能，可以补偿中央银行的外汇干预支出，并提高储备的稳定性。从这个角度来看，本文考察了2000年代世界市场的三个高度动荡时期、国家银行总储备的变化，以及黄金因素对这些变化的影响。据透露，在危机期间，黄金价格的上涨有助于国家银行总储备的稳定，而这一因素的有效性与黄金在储备中的份额成正比。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

57.10%

发文量

审稿时长

7 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice is a scientific journal dedicated to publishing quality papers and disseminating original, relevant and applicable economic research. Scientific and professional papers that are published in the Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice cover theoretical and practical aspects of central banking, monetary policy, including the supervision issues, as well as banking and management in central banks. The purpose of the journal is to educate the general public about the key issues that the central bankers globally face, as well as about contemporary research and achievements in the field of central banking theory and practice.