Journal of Operational Meteorology最新文献_第4页

Addressing the Cold Air Aloft Aviation Challenge with Satellite Sounding Observations 利用卫星探测观测应对冷空气高空航空挑战

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0710

Gail M. Weaver, N. Smith, E. Berndt, Kristopher White, J. Dostalek, B. Zavodsky

{"title":"Addressing the Cold Air Aloft Aviation Challenge with Satellite Sounding Observations","authors":"Gail M. Weaver, N. Smith, E. Berndt, Kristopher White, J. Dostalek, B. Zavodsky","doi":"10.15191/nwajom.2019.0710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2019.0710","url":null,"abstract":"At high latitudes in winter, the atmosphere at flight levels used by passenger and cargo aircraft can reach temperatures cold enough to restrict the flow of jet fuel from the fuel tanks to the engine, due either to water freezing in the fuel or the fuel itself freezing. Currently, aviation forecasters rely on a combination of aircraft reports, pilot reports, a sparse network of radiosondes, and global model fieldsfor identifying and characterizing Cold Air Aloft (CAA) events. More atmospheric data are needed to improve forecasts of CAA placement and timing, and satellite observations can help fill the gap. In particular, products derived from the NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) can be utilized by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assist in the production of aviation hazard products. NUCAPS combines measurements from infrared and microwave sounding instruments on polar-orbiting satellites to retrieve atmospheric profiles of temperature and moisture in the high latitudes. NWS forecasters have real-time access to NUCAPS soundings via the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System-II (AWIPS-II). The Joint Polar Satellite System Sounding Applications Initiative created Gridded NUCAPS in order to view soundings as isobaric surfaces or vertical cross sections in AWIPS-II. The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) developed a web-based product for displaying satellite-derived CAA information. This paper describes how the AWIPS-II and CIRA displays of satellite sounding observations augment aviation forecasting activities in Alaska using two specific CAA cases from the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 winter seasons.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42540640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 11

Techniques and Thresholds of Significance for Using WSR-88D Velocity Data to Anticipate Significant Tornadoes 利用WSR-88D速度数据预测重大龙卷风的技术和意义阈值

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-07-10 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0709

J. Gibbs, Barry R. Bowers

{"title":"Techniques and Thresholds of Significance for Using WSR-88D Velocity Data to Anticipate Significant Tornadoes","authors":"J. Gibbs, Barry R. Bowers","doi":"10.15191/nwajom.2019.0709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2019.0709","url":null,"abstract":"Significant tornadoes (EF2+) make up a very small percentage of the total United States tornado events, but produce the overwhelming majority of tornado fatalities. Identifying significant tornado events in a shortfused warning environment has been a particular focus of the United States National Weather Service’s severe weather program in recent years, with the goal of reducing the loss of life from significant events to the greatest extent possible. This study aims to further this effort by identifying and quantifying the skill of key signals present in Weather Service Radar-1998 Doppler velocity data in the minutes prior to the onset of significant tornado damage. When separated by storm mode, several radar velocity signals are identified that show operationally useful skill in differentiating between significant and weak/nontornadic events in supercells—with lead time. The highest skill scores are achieved by combining maximum volumetric rotational speed and depth of the storm’s mesocyclone, as well as the overall change in rotational speed in the final minutes prior to the onset of significant damage. Very little, if any, predictive skill was found when only the lowest elevation scan was considered, including more frequent supplementary scans in between full volumetric scans. The same signals that showed noteworthy skill for supercells failed to discriminate between significant and weak/nontornadic events in quasi-linear convective Systems and bow echo/mesoscale convective vortex events.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47035791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Early Operational Successes of the University of Louisiana Monroe’s Polarimetric S-band Doppler Radar 路易斯安那大学门罗分校偏振s波段多普勒雷达早期作战成功

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-07-09 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0708

Todd A. Murphy, Cynthia K. Palmer, Chad Entremont, James D. Lamb

引用次数: 1

Development and Evaluation of the GLM Stoplight Product for Lightning Safety GLM雷电安全信号灯产品的开发与评价

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0707

G. Stano, Matthew R. Smith, C. Schultz

{"title":"Development and Evaluation of the GLM Stoplight Product for Lightning Safety","authors":"G. Stano, Matthew R. Smith, C. Schultz","doi":"10.15191/nwajom.2019.0707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2019.0707","url":null,"abstract":"The launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R/S (GOES-16/17), provides new opportunities to support lightning safety, such as the 30-min hazard (“stoplight”) safety product developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center. This product plots the spatial extent where lightning occurred over the past 30 min and color codes the data in 10-min bins. Using GLM’s mapping of the spatial footprint of individual flashes, the product identifies when temporal rules for lightning safety have been met based on the needs of decision-support partners [commercial airlines, 10 min; United States Air Force (USAF) 45th Weather Squadron, 20 min; emergency management (EMA)/National Weather Service (NWS), 30 min]. The effort was guided by EMA partners requesting a product that quickly shows the location and age of lightning observations in an easy-to-interpret visualization. Analysis of lightning safety rules of thumb were performed in the framework of the GLM stoplight product to determine the number of times each of the partner criteria would be violated using an Eulerian-based approach simulating an integrated decision support point of view. The temporal criteria for commercial airlines, USAF, and EMA/NWS were violated 9.5%, 3.5%, and 1.4% of the time within this sample, respectively. Examples are provided to show the GLM 30-min hazard product in linear convection, multicellular convection, and electrified snowfall events. Illustrations also demonstrate how this GLM safety product and ground-based, lightning-location systems can work in tandem to maximize lightning safety protocols.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43348224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

A New Metric to Diagnose Precipitation Distribution in Transitioning Tropical Cyclones 诊断过渡性热带气旋降水分布的新指标

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-06-19 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0705

A. Raghavendra, S. Milrad

{"title":"A New Metric to Diagnose Precipitation Distribution in Transitioning Tropical Cyclones","authors":"A. Raghavendra, S. Milrad","doi":"10.15191/nwajom.2019.0705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2019.0705","url":null,"abstract":"A new coupled dynamic and thermodynamic metric is developed based on the Eady Moist Baroclinic Growth Rate (EMBGR), to discriminate between left-of-track (LOT) and right-of-track (ROT) precipitation distributions in transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs). LOT events pose a major flood risk even when a TC tracks along a coastline or just offshore, as flash flooding can occur hundreds of kilometers inland from the cyclone center. The EMBGR can improve human-produced quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) because it is dependent on relatively well-forecast large-scale mass fields. The ability of the EMBGR to identify precipitation distribution is first explored in a case study of TC Matthew (2016), using reanalysis and numerical model forecasts. Subsequently, a composite analysis of 36 years (1979–2014) of United States landfalling TCs using reanalysis data shows that the EMBGR is an effective discriminator between LOT and ROT distributions. The utility of the EMBGR is quantified using a pattern correlation analysis for both TC Matthew and the composites. Finally, a conceptual schematic is developed for LOT cases so that forecasters can most effectively utilize the EMBGR to improve human QPF skill during transitioning TCs.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41747326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Cool Season Small Hail over the West Coast of the United States: Environments, Hazards, and Decision Support 美国西海岸凉爽季节小冰雹：环境、危害和决策支持

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-06-19 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0706

J. Garner, William C. Iwasko, Matthew Kidwell, Karleisa Rogacheski, Ryan P. Aylward, Jason Anderson

{"title":"Cool Season Small Hail over the West Coast of the United States: Environments, Hazards, and Decision Support","authors":"J. Garner, William C. Iwasko, Matthew Kidwell, Karleisa Rogacheski, Ryan P. Aylward, Jason Anderson","doi":"10.15191/nwajom.2019.0706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2019.0706","url":null,"abstract":"National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters across the west coast of the United States often deal with cool season hail showers that produce hazardous driving conditions. These small hail events, with diameters averaging 5.8 mm, occur with cold upper troughs that support weak instability favorable for low-topped convection and reflectivity values averaging 48 dBZ. The public generally assumes that heavy snow is common across west coast mountains, while heavy rain prevails near sea level. However, motorists can be caught offguard when wet, relatively warm low elevation roadways suddenly transition to icy hail-covered conditions. Thus, west coast small hail events represent an opportunity for the NWS to provide tailored messaging that can modify public perceptions and optimize outcomes. This research examines environments supportive of accumulating small hail over the western United States during the period 2008–2018, and supplements the environmental analysis with a summary of enhanced impact-based decision support techniques used to alert NWS partners and the general public.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45452459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Colorado Lightning Climatology 科罗拉多闪电气候学

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-06-12 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2019.0704

S. Hodanish, B. J. Vogt, P. Wolyn

引用次数: 2

Gulf of Alaska Cyclone in DaytimeMicrophysics RGB Imagery 阿拉斯加湾日间气旋微物理RGB图像

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-05-15 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0703

Michael T. Lawson, K. Fuell

{"title":"Gulf of Alaska Cyclone in Daytime\u0000Microphysics RGB Imagery","authors":"Michael T. Lawson, K. Fuell","doi":"10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0703","url":null,"abstract":"The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has provided National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region forecasters with the experimental Daytime Microphysics (DtMicro) red-green-blue (RGB) product to support forecasting aviation hazards (Berndt et al. 2017), which has become an integral tool in the forecast process. On 11 March 2018, a rapidly deepening cyclone entered the Gulf of Alaska and developed gale-force winds and relatively strong convection for late winter, while lowlevel clouds and fog remained in its wake. The multispectral DtMicro RGB (Rosenfeld and Lensky 1998; EUMETSAT User Service Division 2009) provided an efficient product to analyze cloud properties and surface features with improved efficiency compared to single-channel visible or infrared imagery. The DtMicro RGB and 0.64 µm visible images (Fig. 1) show a mature, occluded cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska at 2030 UTC (1230 LST). The DtMicro RGB combines visible and infrared channels related to cloud brightness, particle size, and temperature in order to analyze convective clouds and other cloud and surface features (Table 1; Lensky and Rosenfeld 2008). A limb correction and intercalibration was applied to infrared channels using the technique outlined in Elmer et al. (2016). These adjustments allow for greater consistency across the imager swath and consistency between numerous polar-orbiting satellites. The RGB clearly delineates the back-bent occlusion (dark orange to red), and dry air wrapping into the system, allowing a view of the low to mid-level clouds in the center of \u0000the image. Bright orange/yellow combinations over the Alaska panhandle and northwestern Canada are mountain-wave cirrus clouds composed of small ice particles. The magenta cloud features within the dry slot are deeper convective cells, and cyan to yellowgreen cloud features are low-level water clouds. Near Illiamna, the tan to dull green coloring indicates very low stratus and fog, which is not distinguishable from snow cover in the visible imagery.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46503606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Historic 2 April 2017 Louisiana Tornado Outbreak 2017年4月2日路易斯安那州历史性龙卷风爆发

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-04-16 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0702

R. Megnia, Timothy W. Humphrey, Jared A. Rackley

{"title":"The Historic 2 April 2017 Louisiana Tornado Outbreak","authors":"R. Megnia, Timothy W. Humphrey, Jared A. Rackley","doi":"10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0702","url":null,"abstract":"On 2 April 2017 Louisiana saw one of its largest tornado outbreaks since 1950. The day saw a total of 21 tornadoes, six of which were classified as significant (EF2+). This extreme event resulted in an estimated 4.2 million dollars in damage and two fatalities. A climatology of Louisiana individual tornado days dating back to 1950 ranked this event second for total number of tornadoes (21) in a day and second for number of significant (EF2+) tornadoes (6) in a day. To assess the overall impact of this outbreak, the Destruction Potential Index (DPI) was used to compare both the overall number and strength of tornadoes to previous events. The 2 April 2017 event had the highest DPI for the state of Louisiana since 1950. Comparisons made to tornado days in nearby states in the region also highlight the significance of this event. The synoptic conditions of 2 April 2017 were compared to a 25-member synoptic scale composite of past Louisiana tornado days with six or more tornadoes. The composite highlighted anomalies in synoptic ingredients that contribute to tornado outbreak environments. Most notably, the synoptic structure consisted of a more meridional flow pattern, which allowed for stronger moisture transport, low level shear, deep layer shear, and increased thermal advection. This produced an optimal mesoscale environment with high instability and storm-relative environmental helicity. The meteorological significance of this event with respect to Louisiana stems from the uncommon combination of a high shear/high CAPE near-storm environment in a southern tornado outbreak. The high shear/high CAPE environment largely responsible for the 2 April 2017 Louisiana tornado outbreak is more commonly observed in Great Plains tornado outbreaks.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42252670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Identifying Significant Cognitive Factors for Practicing and Learning Meteorology 识别气象学实践和学习的重要认知因素

IF 1.1

Journal of Operational Meteorology Pub Date : 2019-03-21 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0701

P. McNeal, H. Petcovic, N. LaDue, T. Ellis

{"title":"Identifying Significant Cognitive Factors for Practicing and Learning Meteorology","authors":"P. McNeal, H. Petcovic, N. LaDue, T. Ellis","doi":"10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15191/NWAJOM.2019.0701","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding which cognitive factors facilitate meteorology skills is important for meteorology training and education. This study investigated aspects of cognition important to successful completion of meteorology tasks typically provided to student meteorologists. With a sample of 81 participants—spanning the range of experience from undergraduate students to professional meteorologists—we administered two spatial thinking tests, a visuospatial working memory test, a concept inventory, and an experience questionnaire. We compared the resulting scores to performance on a series of novice-level meteorology tasks. An analysis of the data suggests that meteorology knowledge along with disembedding skill (the ability to observe and recognize patterns among nonessential information) positively predicts performance on the meteorological tasks. The relationship among meteorology knowledge, disembedding skill, and performance on the meteorology tasks indicates that disembedding is an important predictor of success at both low and high levels of meteorology knowledge. Thus, our results suggest that individuals with heightened ability to identify patterns embedded in distracting background displays may be at an advantage for completing meteorology tasks of the type that we provided.","PeriodicalId":44039,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Meteorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43295850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 17