{"title":"Credit growth and current account balance","authors":"Aysu Çelgin , Okan Eren , Pınar Özlü","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we investigate the relationship between different loan types and the current account balance along with its sub-components. Our empirical results suggest that a rise in total loans inevitably leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. This relationship is preserved in the case of the goods trade balance, but it becomes statistically insignificant and disappears if the services trade balance is considered. When we examine different types of loans, our findings indicate that both consumer and corporate loans have sizeable and negative effect on both the current account and goods trade balances with the impact of consumer loans being much higher. We also report that only corporate loans have a significantly negative relationship with the services trade balance although the concurrent effect is rather small.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50186011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia , Frederico Cavaleiro de Mendonça
{"title":"Compliance with the Basel Core Principles and supervisory structure: A cross-country analysis","authors":"Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia , Frederico Cavaleiro de Mendonça","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper is motivated by the implementation of the new banking supervision structure in the European Union (EU) and the possible conflict of interest between monetary policy and the supervision authority within the European Central Bank (ECB). The empirical analysis considers the relationship between the structure of banking supervision and the compliance with the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective supervision. A sample of 21 countries and the Euro Area (EA) is used. In addition to the structure of bank supervision, a list of independent variables is considered to explain the dependent variable. The results suggest that the supervisory structure has no statistical significance at any notable significance level on compliance with the BCP. On the contrary, financial freedom is a statistically significant variable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anticipation of central banks' adoption of inflation targeting and its effect on inflation","authors":"Amlendu Dubey, Akanksha Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We construct an empirical test of whether the anticipation of adoption of inflation targeting affects the inflation rate. We observe that most of the central banks adopt the regime after first achieving significant disinflation. With pre-inflation-targeting-disinflation, initial targets are met with success and the new regime gains credibility. Working with data for 114 emerging market, advanced and low-income economies, we identify the effect using forward-looking dynamic panel data models in a difference-in-difference framework. We find that inflation targeting is successful in locking-in already low inflation rather than reducing high inflation. The analysis has important implications for central banks looking forward to adoption of inflation targeting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Household debt, heterogeneity and financial stability: Evidence from Kazakhstan","authors":"Alisher Aldashev, Birzhan Batkeyev","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using a Monte Carlo method and quarterly data from the 2019 Household Expenditure and Income Survey, we examine the resilience of urban and rural households to various shocks, including exchange rate change, changes in asset prices, job losses, and decline in income. Based on the exposure at default (EAD) estimates, the largest impact was observed in the case of an income shock. The EAD values ranged from 0.38 to 0.43 compared to a baseline case of 0.35. The latter indicates that about one-third of the debt held by households may be problematic, especially in rural areas. The second largest impact is seen for a major currency devaluation, followed by the rise in unemployment. In addition, the breakdown of these results by income shows that households in the lower income quartiles are more vulnerable. Potential implications are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pınar Fulya Gebeşoğlu, Hasan Murat Ertuğrul , Ümit Bulut
{"title":"The determinants of savings rates in OECD countries: The role of private pensions","authors":"Pınar Fulya Gebeşoğlu, Hasan Murat Ertuğrul , Ümit Bulut","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The design of pension schemes is crucial in determining savings behavior. The impact of pension schemes on saving rates across countries remains to be an intriguing empirical question considering the complicated nature of the relationship between saving patterns and pension wealth. This paper investigates the effect of the private pension contributions on savings rates in 25 selected OECD countries between the period 2001–2019 by employing quantile regression analysis which takes the heterogeneity of the data into account and provides information about not only the midpoint but also the extreme points of the distribution. According to the results, the savings rate is negatively associated with private pensions at all quantile levels. The empirical findings indicate that pension contributions tend to be strong substitutes for voluntary savings in countries with low tendencies to save. This result is especially important for its policy design implications as the policy makers tend to provide incentives either in the form of tax reliefs or direct substitutions for private pension contributions with the motivation to raise domestic savings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierre Hítalo Nascimento Silva, Jevuks Matheus de Araújo
{"title":"Inflation, perception of economic uncertainty and COVID-19: Evidence from Central Bank communication","authors":"Pierre Hítalo Nascimento Silva, Jevuks Matheus de Araújo","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Do extreme events have a significant effect about textual sentiment? The purpose of this article is to highlight the need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data about the perspective of extreme events. For this purpose, based on data extracted from the minutes of mee-tings of the Monetary Policy of eighteen Central Banks, we estimated two variables of perception of economic uncertainty: the first using only a traditional sentiment dictio-nary and the second incorporating terms associated with the extreme event (COVID- 19 Pandemic) in its word list. Initial results show that there is a significant effect of COVID-19 on the estimation of the perception of economic uncertainty; this effect acts as an accelerator that potentiates its impact. It was evident that incorporating conjunctural issues - be it local or global - is indispensable when performing sentiment analysis in texts during extreme events. Moreover, failing to take conjunctural issues into account throughout the estimation process can result in variables with biased in-formation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market concentration and producer prices","authors":"Huzeyfe Torun, Ahmet Duhan Yassa","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the role of sectoral market structure in the inflationary dynamics of the domestic producer prices (D-PPI) in Türkiye. We start by reporting the fact that industries with intense competition had lower producer price inflation compared to industries with low-competition in the past few years. Further investigation shows that this differentiation across industries corresponds to the years with higher exchange rate volatility. The industries characterized with low-competition have higher annual producer price inflation on average than those that are characterized with high-competition especially during the periods of high exchange rate volatility. Results are robust to a wide set of additional specifications and cast light on the role of market structure on firms’ pricing behavior in Türkiye.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Network structure of Turkish interbank market","authors":"Tuba Pelin Sümer , Süheyla Özyıldırım","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global financial crisis has shown the importance of understanding the structure of interbank relations. In this study, we investigate the network relations based on interbank exposures in Türkiye. We estimate several network statistics and document how the network relations have changed over the time period of 2002–2021. We find that the network structures vary substantially by financial instruments such as repo, deposit, loan, security issuances, derivatives and other off-balance sheet items showing the significance of covering all type of exposures in network analysis. Using network statistics, we show that Turkish interbank network structure shows a core-periphery structure which is found to be more resilient during stress times in the literature. Finally, we find that larger banks are characterized as having higher network centrality measures as degree, clustering coefficient and closeness centrality showing the importance of these banks in terms of intermediation and substitutability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070122000300/pdfft?md5=de32f022fa1fe4df2631b9c9d7870615&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070122000300-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79380229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling and estimation of synchronization in size-sorted portfolio returns","authors":"Cem Çakmaklı , Richard Paap , Dick van Dijk","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the lead/lag relations between size-sorted portfolio returns through the lens of financial cycles governing these returns using a novel econometric methodology. Specifically, we develop a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes such as bull and bear market regimes in US large-, mid- and small-cap portfolio returns. This is achieved by characterizing the cycles of the mid- and small-cap portfolio returns in concordance with the cycle of large-cap portfolio returns together with potential phase shifts. We find that a three-regime model with distinct phase shifts across regimes characterizes the joint distribution of returns most adequately. These regimes are closely linked to the business cycle and small-cap portfolio returns are more sensitive to the cyclical phases than the large-cap portfolios. While all portfolios switch contemporaneously into boom and crash regimes, the large-cap portfolio leads the small-cap portfolio for switches to a moderate regime from a boom regime by a month. This suggests that small-cap portfolio adjusts with a delay to the relatively negative news compared to portfolios with larger market capitalization. We document that information diffusion accelerates in response to surprises related to the monetary policy. This reflects a link between financial returns and real economic activity from the viewpoint of ‘financial accelerator theory’ where portfolios with distinct size serve as a proxy for firm characteristics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070122000282/pdfft?md5=c0e55656fa2f372356e166b660e3d938&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070122000282-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74394976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does exporting create employment? Evidence from Turkish manufacturing","authors":"Mustafa Özsarı , Yılmaz Kılıçaslan , Ünal Töngür","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of exporting on labor demand in Turkish manufacturing industry. By using Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) with the firm-level production and trade data of Turkish manufacturing industry, this paper is exploring the employment impact of international trade. The analysis is based on firm level data obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and covers the period from 2003 to 2013. The estimations were carried out for different technology-oriented industries and 2-digit NACE sub-industries to see how the labor demand dynamics change. The results showed that both manufacturing exports and imports have significant and positive impact on the labor demand of the firm. The impact, on the other hand, was found to differ not only in the firms operating in different technology-oriented industries but also in different sub-industries of Turkish manufacturing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070122000294/pdfft?md5=b93b9bd919b8fd8f592d9494d1896b5c&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070122000294-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137269846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}