{"title":"The future of jobs is facing one, maybe two, of the biggest price distortions ever","authors":"L. Pritchett","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2020.1714347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2020.1714347","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Discussions of the future of jobs are concerned that technological change will displace labor and particularly jobs. In this work it is rarely remarked on the strangeness that some of the most globally scarce factors of high level technical expertise, capability to innovate, and entrepreneurial talent are devoted to economizing on – reducing the demand for – one of the most globally abundant factors: low to medium skill labor. I show that policy based barriers to the mobility of labor have created the largest single price distortion in history and that this price distortion induces biased technological change.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2020.1714347","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47478841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Remittances and disaggregated country risk ratings in Tunisia: an ARDL approach","authors":"Dorsaf Sridi, Wafa Ghardallou","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2021.1897324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1897324","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Tunisia is currently facing political, economic and financial problems which have an impact on the flow of remittances. This study is the first attempt to give a thorough analysis of a two-way relationship between workers’ remittances and ICRG disaggregated country risk ratings (such as economic, financial and political risks) in Tunisia in short and long run, spanning the period 1984–2016. In an attempt to achieve this key objective, an ARDL approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, and Wald test are adopted to investigate this linkage. The results show the presence of a long-run relationship. In addition, it could be deduced that in the long-run, economic risks have a negative impact on remittances, whereas in the short-run, they have a positive impact. The financial risk increases remittances because it includes variables related to remittances such as exchange rate stability. A higher level of remittances carries a higher level of financial risk in the short and long-runs. These results engage policy-makers to minimize this negative effect and channel remittances towards investment purposes. Results also indicate that, in response to an increase in remittances, the political risk decreases in the short run but increases in the long run.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2021.1897324","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48619635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Growth and environmental degradation in MENA countries: methodological issues and empirical evidence","authors":"I. Moosa","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A large number of studies on the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve for MENA countries have been conducted, producing (as expected) a mixed bag of results. Several econometric issues are considered with reference to estimates of the EKC for Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. These issues include the order of the polynomial, the validity of the log–log specification, cointegration and spurious correlation, missing variables, and the sensitivity and fragility of the results. It is concluded that the most serious issue is the sensitivity of the results to model specification and other factors, which is not considered in the MENA studies of the EKC. Robust results are produced with respect to the order of polynomial, estimation method and measurement of the income variable.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47540647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ideas, networks and jobs: rebasing growth in the Middle East and North Africa","authors":"P. Collier","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Oil rents are set to wane. In the MENA Region, the legacy of four decades of dependence on oil is an economy that is not generating enough opportunities for productive employment. This paper set out a policy agenda for gradual change that is cumulatively transformative. Directly, productivity can be increased by encouraging clusters of firms capable of innovation, linked to vocational training that equips a workforce with the skills that firms need. But the socio-political transformation from a rent-seeking economy to a skill-based economy is more complex, requiring both cultural and institutional change. This cannot be planned in detail: a transformation is a unique event subject to radical uncertainty. It calls for a process of rapid social learning based on experimentation. As the society adapts, new opportunities open, and the next steps clarify. I give examples of how an adaptable framework has been built elsewhere.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46891686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla, Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali
{"title":"Determinants and impact of household's out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure in Sudan: evidence from urban and rural population*","authors":"Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla, Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines the determinants of the out-of-pocket health expenditure and catastrophic health spending incurred by Sudanese households. It also investigates the effect of out-of-pocket health expenditure on poverty incidence among households. The study uses 2009s National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) data. The results show that factors such as household’s income, educational achievement of household’s head, household size, number of household’s members over 65 years old are the most important factors influencing out-of-pocket health expenditure. The results also indicate that the presence of elderly and children among the household’s members increases the risk of incurring catastrophic health expenditure. Moreover, the empirical results document that out-of-pocket health expenditure pushes a considerable portion of Sudanese households into poverty. Finally, the paper ends with some recommendations that aim to assist policymakers in designing an appropriate health financing strategy to protect households against the risk of out-of-pocket health expenditure and to reduce its impoverishment impact.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41264604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Son Preference and Child Under nutrition in the Arab Countries: Is There a Gender Bias against Girls?","authors":"M. Sharaf, A. Rashad, Elhussien Ibrahim Mansour","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Although son preference has been demonstrated in the MENA region with different manifestations and at several phases of human development, the literature remains sparse as far as studies examining the early childhood phase are concerned. The current study aims to explore the presence of a gender bias in child nutrition status and its association with maternal son preference in three Arab countries; namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen. Child nutritional status is measured using the Height-for-Age z-score (HAZ). To examine the presence of gender bias across the entire nutritional distribution, we utilized a quantile regression framework. We use data from the most recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey on a nationally representative sample of children aged 0–4 years. Descriptive statistics show that 21.5% of the mothers demonstrate son preference in Yemen compared to 19.10% in Jordan and 13.26% in Egypt. Results of the baseline OLS model demonstrate a robust pro-girl nutrition bias in the three countries. However, results of the quantile regression model show that this pro-girl nutrition bias is only prevalent at the lower segment of the conditional HAZ distribution for Jordan and Yemen and is prevalent across the whole conditional HAZ distribution for Egypt. We also find no statistically significant association between maternal son preference and gender bias in child nutrition in the three countries. Although son preference is manifested in several phases of human development in the MENA region, the current study finds no nutritional bias against girls in the examined countries at early childhood.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44673483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How gender biased are female-headed household transfers in Egypt?","authors":"Lobna Abdellatif, Mohamed Ramadan, Sara ElBakry","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, we claim that the policy of targeting female-headed households’ (FHHs) may generate bias against women in male-headed households (MHHs) who may be more poverty-constrained. Targeting FHHs may have the merit of clear targeting; however, it doesn’t address the feminization phenomenon of poverty; instead, it presents unequal opportunities for women in other families by less favouring them. We argue that proper targeting could be derived based on the number of women in families. The study applied a Gender-Based Poverty Detection Model to provide a good detection of household poverty and show that the vulnerable characteristics of females could be more influenced by the general household’s poverty than females’ headed households. Model results showed that not all FHHs are poor, and that some de jure MHHs include a large number of poor females. This means that targeting only de jure FHHs might result in resource leakage to the non-poor and under-coverage of poor de facto FHHs and poor females in MHHs. The analysis asserts that female headship is not always a correlate of poverty in Egypt. An important correlate, however, is the share of female members in the household. This raises questions about the effectiveness of social assistance and poverty alleviation programmes in Egypt in targeting female poverty.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60484946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the potential and Limitations of monetary policy in Turkey*","authors":"Ilker Domaç, G. Isiklar, M. Kandil","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The use of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity around the globe and in Turkey has been receiving a flurry of attention. Calls for lower interest rates have become louder as the country’s private driven growth has slowed down. However, monetary policy faces the challenges of maintaining external stability and reviving domestic conditions, which could necessitate conflicting interest rate policies. To determine which goals are most suitable for monetary policy, one must understand the effects of monetary policy and its transmission channels to the macro economy. Our empirical results suggest that monetary policy in Turkey has fairly limited power to affect output growth, even in the short-run. We find that external factors – such as shocks to risk aversion and global growth – have a much stronger impact on economic activity in Turkey. These results seem to be in line with the strand of the literature, which highlights the importance of global financial cycles and argues that exchange rate flexibility alone is not enough to guarantee monetary autonomy in a world of large capital flows. Consequently, our empirical findings corroborate the notion that monetary policy should focus on its overriding objective of price stability, given Turkey’s greater exposure to supply shocks and pro-cyclicality of international finance.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45197783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy choices in the 21st century – where to start?","authors":"R. Medhora","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Based on the author’s keynote talk at the ERF’s 25th anniversary conference in Kuwait City (March 10–12, 2019), this paper outlines the research and policy dimensions of the fast-rising intangibles economy. The key features of such economic structures are – the centrality of (mostly proprietary) intellectual property; high upfront fronts for firms but near-zero marginal costs of production if successful; first-mover advantage especially if backed up by standard-setting; and handsome rewards for strategic behavior. There is no single route to success in such a world; in fact many successful countries have had ex ante daunting challenges not unknown among ERF countries. The ethos that drives the ERF has never been more essential than it is today.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41882294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Armed conflict and child labor: evidence from Iraq","authors":"G. Naufal, Michael Malcolm, V. Diwakar","doi":"10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between armed conflict intensity and child labor using household level data from Iraq and taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setup. Armed conflict intensity is measured by the number of deaths related to conflict, and child labor is separated by type of work: economic and household. After controlling for individual and household characteristics that determine child labor, we find that armed conflict intensity is associated with a higher likelihood of entry into economic work sufficient to qualify as child labor, but is not associated with entry into household child labor. However, conflict intensity is associated with marginal increases in hours worked for both types of activity. We also explore gender differences. These results provide further evidence of the long-term costs of war on households.","PeriodicalId":43862,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Development Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49493806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}