Journal of Risk Model Validation最新文献

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Does the asymmetric exponential power distribution improve systemic risk measurement? 非对称指数权力分配是否改善了系统性风险度量?
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.031
Shu Wu, Huiqiong Chen, Helong Li
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引用次数: 0
Model risk in mortality-linked contingent claims pricing 与死亡相关的或有索赔定价中的风险模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.022
G. Peters, Hongxuan Yan, Jennifer Chan
{"title":"Model risk in mortality-linked contingent claims pricing","authors":"G. Peters, Hongxuan Yan, Jennifer Chan","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.022","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Model risk quantification based on relative entropy 基于相对熵的模型风险量化
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.020
D. Arrieta
{"title":"Model risk quantification based on relative entropy","authors":"D. Arrieta","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating value-at-risk using quantile regression and implied volatilities 使用分位数回归和隐含波动率估计风险价值
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2021.014
P. D. de Lange, Morten Risstad, Sjur Westgaard
{"title":"Estimating value-at-risk using quantile regression and implied volatilities","authors":"P. D. de Lange, Morten Risstad, Sjur Westgaard","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2021.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2021.014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83528324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Predicting financial distress of Chinese listed companies using a novel hybrid model framework with an imbalanced-data perspective 基于非平衡数据视角的新型混合模型框架预测中国上市公司财务困境
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2021.012
Tong Zhang, Zhichong Zhao
{"title":"Predicting financial distress of Chinese listed companies using a novel hybrid model framework with an imbalanced-data perspective","authors":"Tong Zhang, Zhichong Zhao","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2021.012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2021.012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86117467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Quantification of model risk with an application to probability of default estimation and stress testing for a large corporate portfolio 将模型风险量化,应用于大型公司投资组合的违约估计概率和压力测试
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.023
Michael Jacobs Jnr.
{"title":"Quantification of model risk with an application to probability of default estimation and stress testing for a large corporate portfolio","authors":"Michael Jacobs Jnr.","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.023","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
General bounds on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and other performance measures when only a single sensitivity and specificity point is known 当只知道单个灵敏度和特异度点时,接收器工作特性曲线下的面积和其他性能指标的一般界限
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.019
Roger M. Stein
{"title":"General bounds on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and other performance measures when only a single sensitivity and specificity point is known","authors":"Roger M. Stein","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.019","url":null,"abstract":"Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are often used to quantify the performance of predictive models used in diagnosis, risk stratification and rating systems. The ROC area under the curve (AUC) summarizes the ROC in a single statistic, which also provides a probabilistic interpretation that is isomorphic to the Mann– Whitney–Wilcoxon test. In many settings, such as those involving diagnostic tests for diseases or antibodies, information about the ROC is not reported;instead the true positive. TP / and true negative. TN / rates are reported for a single threshold value. We demonstrate how to calculate the upper and lower bounds for the ROC AUC, given a single. TP;TN / pair. We use simple geometric arguments only, and we present two examples of real-world applications from medicine and finance, involving Covid-19 diagnosis and credit card fraud detection, respectively. In addition, we introduce formally the notion of “pathological” ROC curves and “well-behaved” ROC curves. In the case of well-behaved ROC curves, the bounds on the AUC may be made tighter. In certain special cases involving pathological ROC curves that result from what we term “George Costanza” classifiers, we may transform predictions to obtain well-behaved ROC curves with higher AUC than the original decision process. Our results also enable the calculation of other quantities of interest, such as Cohen’s d or the Pearson correlation between a diagnostic outcome and an actual outcome. These results facilitate the direct comparison of reported performance when model or diagnostic performance is reported for only a single score threshold. © 2022. Infopro Digital Risk (IP) Limited","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing 宏观金融压力测试的场景设计
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.024
Emanuele De Meo
{"title":"Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing","authors":"Emanuele De Meo","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.024","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a novel empirical approach to scenario design for selecting a stress scenario for international macrofinancial variables. The scenario design framework is composed of several building blocks. First, multiple scenarios on the risk factors are generated by simulating a multi-country large Bayesian vector autoregression. Second, we take the perspective of a representative investor who aims to select a severe-yet-plausible scenario for a set of systematic risk factors following a factor-investing strategy. Moreover, we compare the stress scenarios selected under different approaches to measure plausibility (the Mahalanobis distance and entropy pooling under subjective views with a clear economic narrative). Finally, we compare our scenario design approach with a historical scenario approach in terms of its ability to select a stress scenario in the run-up to a rare adverse event such as the Covid-19 pandemic. We give evidence that our framework is suitable for the selection of a proper forward-looking severe-yet-plausible macrofinancial stress scenario.","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance validation of representative sample-balancing methods in loan credit-scoring scenarios 贷款信用评分场景中代表性样本平衡方法的性能验证
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.026
Ling Chen, Runchi Zhang
{"title":"Performance validation of representative sample-balancing methods in loan credit-scoring scenarios","authors":"Ling Chen, Runchi Zhang","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.026","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk contagion and bank stability: the role of credit risk and liquidity risk 风险传染与银行稳定性:信用风险和流动性风险的作用
IF 0.7 4区 经济学
Journal of Risk Model Validation Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21314/jrmv.2022.025
Lei Ding, Yaming Zhuang, Hu Wang
{"title":"Risk contagion and bank stability: the role of credit risk and liquidity risk","authors":"Lei Ding, Yaming Zhuang, Hu Wang","doi":"10.21314/jrmv.2022.025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jrmv.2022.025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43447,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Model Validation","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67720329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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