Statistics and Public Policy最新文献_第8页

Quantifying Gerrymandering in North Carolina 量化北卡罗来纳州的不公正划分选区

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2020.1796400

G. Herschlag, H. Kang, Justin Luo, Christy V. Graves, Sachet Bangia, Robert J. Ravier, Jonathan C. Mattingly

{"title":"Quantifying Gerrymandering in North Carolina","authors":"G. Herschlag, H. Kang, Justin Luo, Christy V. Graves, Sachet Bangia, Robert J. Ravier, Jonathan C. Mattingly","doi":"10.1080/2330443x.2020.1796400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2020.1796400","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT By comparing a specific redistricting plan to an ensemble of plans, we evaluate whether the plan translates individual votes to election outcomes in an unbiased fashion. Explicitly, we evaluate if a given redistricting plan exhibits extreme statistical properties compared to an ensemble of nonpartisan plans satisfying all legal criteria. Thus, we capture how unbiased redistricting plans interpret individual votes via a state’s geo-political landscape. We generate the ensemble of plans through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm coupled with simulated annealing based on a reference distribution that does not include partisan criteria. Using the ensemble and historical voting data, we create a null hypothesis for various election results, free from partisanship, accounting for the state’s geo-politics. We showcase our methods on two recent congressional districting plans of NC, along with a plan drawn by a bipartisan panel of retired judges. We find the enacted plans are extreme outliers whereas the bipartisan judges’ plan does not give rise to extreme partisan outcomes. Equally important, we illuminate anomalous structures in the plans of interest by developing graphical representations which help identify and understand instances of cracking and packing associated with gerrymandering. These methods were successfully used in recent court cases. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443x.2020.1796400","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42236973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 73

Inference of Long-Term Screening Outcomes for Individuals with Screening Histories 对有筛查史的个体的长期筛查结果的推断

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438939

Dongfeng Wu, K. Kafadar, S. Rai

{"title":"Inference of Long-Term Screening Outcomes for Individuals with Screening Histories","authors":"Dongfeng Wu, K. Kafadar, S. Rai","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438939","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We develop a probability model for evaluating long-term outcomes due to regular screening that incorporates the effects of prior screening examinations. Previous models assume that individuals have no prior screening examinations at their current ages. Due to current widespread medical emphasis on screening, the consideration of screening histories is essential, particularly in assessing the benefit of future screening examinations given a certain number of previous negative screens. Screening participants are categorized into four mutually exclusive groups: symptom-free-life, no-early-detection, true-early-detection, and overdiagnosis. For each case, we develop models that incorporate a person’s current age, screening history, expected future screening frequency, screening test sensitivity, and other factors, and derive the probabilities of occurrence for the four groups. The probability of overdiagnosis among screen-detected cases is derived and estimated. The model applies to screening for any disease or condition; for concreteness, we focus on female breast cancer and use data from the study conducted by the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York (HIP) to estimate these probabilities and corresponding credible intervals. The model can provide policy makers with important information regarding ranges of expected lives saved and percentages of true-early-detection and overdiagnosis among the screen-detected cases.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438939","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48631957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Value-Added and Student Growth Percentile Models: What Drives Differences in Estimated Classroom Effects? 增值和学生增长百分比模型：是什么导致了估计课堂效果的差异？

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438938

Michael Kurtz

引用次数: 11

Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests? Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial 预测性警务会导致有偏见的逮捕吗?随机对照试验的结果

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438940

P. Brantingham, Matthew A. Valasik, G. Mohler

{"title":"Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests? Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial","authors":"P. Brantingham, Matthew A. Valasik, G. Mohler","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438940","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Racial bias in predictive policing algorithms has been the focus of a number of recent news articles, statements of concern by several national organizations (e.g., the ACLU and NAACP), and simulation-based research. There is reasonable concern that predictive algorithms encourage directed police patrols to target minority communities with discriminatory consequences for minority individuals. However, to date there have been no empirical studies on the bias of predictive algorithms used for police patrol. Here, we test for such biases using arrest data from the Los Angeles predictive policing experiments. We find that there were no significant differences in the proportion of arrests by racial-ethnic group between control and treatment conditions. We find that the total numbers of arrests at the division level declined or remained unchanged during predictive policing deployments. Arrests were numerically higher at the algorithmically predicted locations. When adjusted for the higher overall crime rate at algorithmically predicted locations, however, arrests were lower or unchanged.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438940","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46587771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 81

Examining the Carnegie Classification Methodology for Research Universities 研究型大学的卡内基分类方法研究

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1442271

R. Kosar, D. W. Scott

{"title":"Examining the Carnegie Classification Methodology for Research Universities","authors":"R. Kosar, D. W. Scott","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1442271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1442271","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT University ranking is a popular yet controversial endeavor. Most rankings are based on both public data, such as student test scores and retention rates, and proprietary data, such as school reputation as perceived by high school counselors and academic peers. The weights applied to these characteristics to compute the rankings are often determined in a subjective fashion. Of significant importance in the academic field, the Carnegie Classification was developed by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. It has been updated approximately every 5 years since 1973, most recently in February 2016. Based on bivariate scores, Carnegie assigns one of three classes (R1/R2/R3) to doctorate-granting universities according to their level of research activity. The Carnegie methodology uses only publicly available data and determines weights via principal component analysis. In this article, we review Carnegie’s stated goals and the extent to which their methodology achieves those goals. In particular, we examine Carnegie’s separation of aggregate and per capita (per tenured/tenure-track faculty member) variables and its use of two separate principal component analyses on each; the resulting bivariate scores are very highly correlated. We propose and evaluate two alternatives and provide a graphical tool for evaluating and comparing the three scenarios.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1442271","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42101780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 16

The Role of Prior Information in Inference on the Annualized Rates of Mass Shootings in the United States 先验信息在推断美国每年大规模枪击事件发生率中的作用

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1448733

Nathan Sanders, Victor Lei

{"title":"The Role of Prior Information in Inference on the Annualized Rates of Mass Shootings in the United States","authors":"Nathan Sanders, Victor Lei","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1448733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1448733","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT While public debate over gun control in the United States has often hinged on individual public mass shooting incidents, legislative action should be informed by knowledge of the long-term evolution of these events. We present a new Bayesian model for the annualized rate of public mass shootings in the United States based on a Gaussian process with a time-varying mean function. While we present specific findings on long- and short-term trends of these shootings in the U.S., our focus is on understanding the role of model design and prior information in policy analysis. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo inference technique, we explore the posterior consequences of different prior choices and explore correlations between hyperparameters. We demonstrate that the findings about the long-term evolution of the annualized rate of public mass shootings are robust to choices about prior information, while inferences about the timescale and amplitude of short-term variation depend sensitively on the prior. This work addresses the policy implications of implicit and explicit choices of prior information in model design and the utility of full Bayesian inference in evaluating the consequences of those choices.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1448733","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45772292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Trends in Self-Reporting of Marijuana Consumption in the United States 美国大麻消费自我报告趋势

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1513346

Maria Cuellar

{"title":"Trends in Self-Reporting of Marijuana Consumption in the United States","authors":"Maria Cuellar","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1513346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1513346","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT To adjust for underreporting of marijuana use, researchers multiply the proportion of individuals who reported using marijuana by a constant factor, such as the US Office of National Drug Control Policy’s 1.3. Although the current adjustments are simple, they do not account for changes in reporting over time. This article presents a novel way to explore relative changes in reporting from one survey to another simply by using data already available in a self-reported survey, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Using domain estimation to examine the stability in reported marijuana use by age 25 in individuals older than 25, this analysis provides estimates of the trends in marijuana reporting and standard errors, as long as the survey weights properly account for sampling variability. There was no significant evidence of an upward or downward trend in reporting changes from 1979 to 2016 for all birth cohorts, although there were significant differences in reporting between years and a slight downward trend in later years. These results suggest that individuals have become increasingly less willing to report their drug use in recent years, and thus the ONDCP likely underestimated the already drastic increase in use from 1992 to 2016.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1513346","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44754073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

How do Test Scores at the Ceiling Affect Value-Added Estimates? 最高测试分数如何影响增值估计？

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2018.1460226

Alexandra M. Resch, Eric Isenberg

{"title":"How do Test Scores at the Ceiling Affect Value-Added Estimates?","authors":"Alexandra M. Resch, Eric Isenberg","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2018.1460226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1460226","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Some educators are concerned that students with test scores at top of the test score distribution will negatively affect the value-added estimates of teachers of those students. A conventional wisdom has sprung up suggesting that students with very high test scores have “no room to grow,” so value-added estimates for teachers with high-performing students will be depressed even for highly effective teachers. Using empirical data, we show that under normal circumstances, in which few students score at the ceiling, a teacher of high-performing students—even with many students scoring at the ceiling on the pre-test—can have a high value-added estimate. To understand how more extreme ceiling effects can change value-added estimates, we simulate a low ceiling, causing student test achievement data of high-scoring students to become less precise when a single score represents a large range of possible achievement. We find that the problem of test score ceilings for an evaluation system is not that it pushes the value added of every teacher of high-achieving students toward the bottom of the distribution of teachers, but rather shrinks it toward the middle.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1460226","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47132513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Accumulating Evidence of the Impact of Voter ID Laws: Student Engagement in the Political Process 选民身份法影响的证据积累:政治过程中的学生参与

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2017-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2017.1407721

K. McConville, Lynne Stokes, M. Gray

引用次数: 4

A Spatial Study of the Location of Superfund Sites and Associated Cancer Risk 超级基金地点和癌症相关风险的空间研究

IF 1.6

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2017-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2017.1408439

R. Amin, Arlene Nelson, S. McDougall

{"title":"A Spatial Study of the Location of Superfund Sites and Associated Cancer Risk","authors":"R. Amin, Arlene Nelson, S. McDougall","doi":"10.1080/2330443X.2017.1408439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2017.1408439","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Superfund sites are geographic locations selected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as having extreme toxic chemical spills. In this article, we address three main research questions: (1) Are there geographical areas where the number (or density) of Superfund sites is significantly higher than in the rest of the USA? (2) Is there an association between cancer incidence and the number (or density) of Superfund sites? (3) Do counties with Superfund sites have higher proportions of minority populations than the rest of the USA? We study the geographic distribution of the overall cancer incidence rate (2007–2011) in addition to the geographic variation of Superfund sites for 2013. We used the disease surveillance software package SaTScan with its scan statistic to identify locations and relative risks of spatial clusters in cancer rates and in Superfund site count and density. We also used the surveillance software FlexScan to support and complement the results obtained with SaTScan. We find that geographic areas with Superfund sites tend to have elevated cancer risk, and also elevated proportions of minority populations.","PeriodicalId":43397,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Public Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2017-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/2330443X.2017.1408439","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43813433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14