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U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks 美国住房作为全球安全资产:来自中国冲击的证据
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-11-08 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1332
W. Barcelona, Nathan Converse, A. Wong
{"title":"U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks","authors":"W. Barcelona, Nathan Converse, A. Wong","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1332","url":null,"abstract":"This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese in ows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital ows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital in ows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to in ows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure of Chinese demand for U.S. housing at the zip code level, we estimate via a difference-in-difference matching framework that house prices in major U.S. cities that are highly exposed to demand from China have on average grown 7 percentage points faster than similar neighborhoods with low exposure over the period 2010-2016. These average excess price growth gaps co-move closely with macro-level measures of U.S. capital in ows from China, and tend to widen following periods of economic stress in China, suggesting that Chinese households view U.S. housing as a safe haven asset.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117231241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Pitfalls of Using Location Quotients to Identify Clusters and Represent Industry Specialization in Small Regions 利用区位商识别小区域集群和代表产业专业化的缺陷
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1329
Mariya Pominova, Todd Gabe, A. Crawley
{"title":"The Pitfalls of Using Location Quotients to Identify Clusters and Represent Industry Specialization in Small Regions","authors":"Mariya Pominova, Todd Gabe, A. Crawley","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1329","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the use of location quotients, a measure of regional business activity relative to the national benchmark, as an indicator of sectoral agglomeration in small cities and towns, and as a measure of industry specialization that might impact the number of new business startups in these places. Using establishment-level data on businesses located in Maine, our findings suggest that the addition of one \"hypothetical\" establishment in very small towns leads to a dramatic change in the magnitude of the region-industry location quotient. At population sizes of about 4,100 or more people, however, location quotients are reasonably stable. Regression results from an analysis of the relationship between new business activity and regional industry specialization show that the effect of location quotients on business startups switches from \"inelastic\" to \"elastic\" at a population size cutoff of about 2,600 residents. Overall, our findings suggest that researchers and practitioners should exercise caution when using location quotients to study small regions.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"146 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116491106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Financial Stability Governance and Central Bank Communications 金融稳定治理与央行沟通
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1328
Juan M. Londoño, S. Claessens, Ricardo Correa
{"title":"Financial Stability Governance and Central Bank Communications","authors":"Juan M. Londoño, S. Claessens, Ricardo Correa","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1328","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how central banks' governance frameworks influence their financial stability communication strategies and assess the effectiveness of these strategies in preventing a worsening of financial cycle conditions. We develop a simple conceptual framework of how central banks communicate about financial stability and how communication shapes the evolution of the financial cycle. We apply our framework using data on the governance characteristics of 24 central banks and the sentiment conveyed in their financial stability reports. We find robust evidence that communications by central banks participating in interagency financial stability committees more effectively mitigate a deterioration in financial conditions and advert a potential financial crisis. After observing a deterioration in conditions, such central banks also transmit a calmer message, suggesting that the ability to use policy tools other than communications strengthens incentives not to just \"cry wolf\".","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126301746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan 企业压力和银行不良贷款:来自巴基斯坦的证据
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1327
Ali M. Choudhary, Anil Jain
{"title":"Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Ali M. Choudhary, Anil Jain","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1327","url":null,"abstract":"Using detailed administrative Pakistani credit registry data, we show that banks with low leverage ratios are both significantly slower and less likely to recognize a loan as nonperforming than other banks that lend to the same firm. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that this lack of recognition impedes loan curing, with banks with low leverage ratios reporting significantly higher final default rates than other banks for the same borrower (even after controlling for differences in loan terms). Our empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical prediction that classifying a nonperforming loan is more expensive for banks with less capital.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114217606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Global Banking and Firm Financing: A Double Adverse Selection Channel of International Transmission 全球银行与企业融资:国际传导的双重逆向选择渠道
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-08-04 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1325
Leslie Sheng Shen
{"title":"Global Banking and Firm Financing: A Double Adverse Selection Channel of International Transmission","authors":"Leslie Sheng Shen","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1325","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a \"double adverse selection channel\" of international transmission. It shows, theoretically and empirically, that financial systems with both global and local banks exhibit double adverse selection in credit allocation across firms. Global (local) banks have a comparative advantage in extracting information on global (local) risk, and this double information asymmetry creates a segmented credit market where each bank lends to the worst firms in terms of the unobserved risk factor. Given a bank funding (e.g., monetary policy) shock, double adverse selection affects firm financing at the extensive and price margins, generating spillover and amplification effects across countries.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"123 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122851317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Intangible Gender Gap: An Asset Channel of Inequality 无形的性别差距:不平等的资产渠道
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-08-03 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1322
Carlos F. Avenancio-León, Leslie Sheng Shen
{"title":"The Intangible Gender Gap: An Asset Channel of Inequality","authors":"Carlos F. Avenancio-León, Leslie Sheng Shen","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1322","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an \"asset channel of inequality\" that contributes to gender inequities. We establish that industries with low (high) gender pay gaps have high (low) shares of tangible assets. Because asset tangibility determines firms' ability to collateralize assets and borrow, credit conditions affect industries differently. We show that credit expansions further reduce the pay gap in low-pay-gap industries while leaving it unaffected in high-pay-gap industries, making low-pay-gap industries more appealing for women. Consequently, gender sorting across industries increases, which then cements gender roles and accentuates workplace gender bias. Ultimately, credit expansions help women \"swim upstream\" but also reinforce glass ceilings.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122314707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sharing Asymmetric Tail Risk: Smoothing, Asset Prices and Terms of Trade 非对称尾部风险分担:平滑、资产价格和交易条件
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1324
G. Corsetti, A. Lipińska, G. Lombardo
{"title":"Sharing Asymmetric Tail Risk: Smoothing, Asset Prices and Terms of Trade","authors":"G. Corsetti, A. Lipińska, G. Lombardo","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1324","url":null,"abstract":"Crises and tail events have asymmetric effects across borders, raising the value of arrangements improving insurance of macroeconomic risk. Using a two-country DSGE model, we provide an analytical and quantitative analysis of the channels through which countries gain from sharing (tail) risk. Riskier countries gain in smoother consumption but lose in relative wealth and average consumption. Safer countries benefit from higher wealth and better average terms of trade. Calibrated using the empirical distribution of moments of GDP-growth across countries, the model suggests non-negligible quantitative effects. We offer an algorithm for the correct solution of the equilibrium using DSGE models under complete markets, at higher order of approximation.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133670888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty 实体经济不确定性的全球传导
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1317
Juan M. Londoño, Sai Ma, B. Wilson
{"title":"The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty","authors":"Juan M. Londoño, Sai Ma, B. Wilson","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2021.1317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1317","url":null,"abstract":"Using a sample of 30 countries representing about 65% of the global GDP, we find that real economic uncertainty (REU) has negative long-lasting domestic economic effects and transmits across countries. The international spillover effects of REU are (i) additional to those of domestic REUs, (ii) statistically significant, and (iii) economically meaningful. Trade ties play a key role in explaining why uncertainty generated in one country can affect economic outcomes in other countries. Based on this evidence, we construct a novel index for global REU as the trade-weighted average of all countries' REUs. We disentangle the effects of the domestic and foreign components of global REU and find that, on average, innovations to the foreign component can contribute up to 28% of the future variation in domestic industrial production, with the effect being disproportionately larger on its manufacturing component, the component contributing the most to the tradable goods sector, than on its retail sales component.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130483923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model 回到现在:通过现在的模型了解欧元区
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1313
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, T. Ferreira, D. Giannone, M. Modugno
{"title":"Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model","authors":"Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, T. Ferreira, D. Giannone, M. Modugno","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2021.1313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2021.1313","url":null,"abstract":"We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries|Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions.","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131274999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies 雇佣补贴的国家依赖有效性
International Finance Discussion Paper Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2020.1290
Sebastian Graves
{"title":"The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies","authors":"Sebastian Graves","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2020.1290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2020.1290","url":null,"abstract":"The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new finding can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job creation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in recessions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms are near their firing thresholds. Policies that target the job destruction margin, such as employment protection subsidies, are particularly effective at such times. (JEL E24, E32, H25, J23, J64)","PeriodicalId":433202,"journal":{"name":"International Finance Discussion Paper","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125589675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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