U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks

W. Barcelona, Nathan Converse, A. Wong
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese in ows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital ows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital in ows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to in ows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure of Chinese demand for U.S. housing at the zip code level, we estimate via a difference-in-difference matching framework that house prices in major U.S. cities that are highly exposed to demand from China have on average grown 7 percentage points faster than similar neighborhoods with low exposure over the period 2010-2016. These average excess price growth gaps co-move closely with macro-level measures of U.S. capital in ows from China, and tend to widen following periods of economic stress in China, suggesting that Chinese households view U.S. housing as a safe haven asset.
美国住房作为全球安全资产:来自中国冲击的证据
本文表明,由于历史上未记录的中国对一种日益流行的全球避险资产——美国住宅房地产的投资,中国持有的美国资产的实际存量可能远高于美国净国际投资头寸数据所显示的水平。我们首先使用总资本债务数据来表明,过去十年美国国际收支账户中未记录的债务资本的增加主要与中国向美国房地产市场的债务有关。然后,使用一个独特的网络流量数据集,该数据集提供了中国对美国住房在邮政编码水平上的需求的直接衡量,我们通过差中差匹配框架估计,在2010年至2016年期间,高度暴露于中国需求的美国主要城市的房价平均增长速度比低暴露的类似社区快7个百分点。这些平均超额价格增长差距与美国从中国获得的资本的宏观指标密切相关,并且在中国经济出现压力后往往会扩大,这表明中国家庭将美国住房视为避险资产。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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