Journal of Economics and Political Economy最新文献_第7页

Policy Review: Is Inequality a Policy Choice? 政策评论:不平等是一种政策选择吗?

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-03-18 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V5I1.1491

D. Mamoon

引用次数: 0

Supply-side economics and the 2017 Tax Act 供给侧经济学和2017年税法

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-03-18 DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1556

Clark V. Johnson

{"title":"Supply-side economics and the 2017 Tax Act","authors":"Clark V. Johnson","doi":"10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1556","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Abstract. Several of the designers of the 2017 Tax Act were prominent as ‘supply side‛ advocates at the time of Reagan tax cuts during the 1980s. The economic argument for supply side tax rate reductions drew on a policy mix framework developed by Robert Mundell as early as 1962. Within that framework, the easy fiscal/ tight monetary policy solution was intended for circumstances of either pressure on reserves or the exchange rate (as during the Kennedy Administration) or of serious domestic inflation (as under the Carter and Reagan Administrations). Tax cuts in the US since the 1980s have not had the intended stimulus effects because neither the currency weakness nor inflationary preconditions have existed. Absent such conditions, tax rate reductions will generate either domestic over-heating or a redistribution of income to those in higher brackets. Any argument in favor of the 2017 Tax Act should not fall back on Mundell’s policy mix advocacy. In contrast, the case for an easy fiscal/ tight money policy may have unexpected force in situations of fixed exchange rates, or where domestic monetary policy options are otherwise constrained or absent – as in Eurozone periphery countries. Keywords. Supply side economics, Robert Mundell, Policy Mix classifications, 2017 Tax Act, Eurozone macroeconomics. JEL. B30, E30, E50, E60, F20.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127230690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Did Harvard barometers allow for the prediction of the 1929 Stock market crash 哈佛晴雨表能预测1929年的股市崩盘吗

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-03-18 DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1560

Ignacio Escañuela Romana

{"title":"Did Harvard barometers allow for the prediction of the 1929 Stock market crash","authors":"Ignacio Escañuela Romana","doi":"10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1560","url":null,"abstract":"The Harvard barometers were an attempt to analyse and predict the business cycles, which took place in the 1920s. An initiative from the Harvard Economic Service (HES), it was one of the first and more important instrument used to try to understand the sequence in the economic fluctuations. This paper reconsiders the accepted position about the Harvard barometers, that using them it was impossible to predict the 1929 Depression. I arrive at a different conclusion. Based on the data from the ABC curves in August 1929, and with an available econometric methodology at that time, it would have been possible to forecast the fall in speculation, as defined in the curve A, whereas the fall in business (B), and in monetary and credit conditions (C) were unpredictable. The stock market crash could have been anticipated. The HES stated that curve A precedes B, and then C. This is not detected. This paper makes use of the harmonic analysis by breaking down series in sinusoidal curves. Taking into account this prediction, this work analyses if aggregation was the factor producing the perceived regularities. The conclusion is negative: aggregation did not produce those cycles, they were in the original data.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125502713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bounds Test Cointegration Approach to Examine Factors Contributing to Declining Maternal Mortality Ratio in Sudan (1969-2015) 边界检验协整方法研究苏丹孕产妇死亡率下降的影响因素(1969-2015)

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-03-03 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V5I2.1642

Elwasila S. E. Mohamed

{"title":"Bounds Test Cointegration Approach to Examine Factors Contributing to Declining Maternal Mortality Ratio in Sudan (1969-2015)","authors":"Elwasila S. E. Mohamed","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V5I2.1642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V5I2.1642","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Unlike other studies in the field of maternal health, the objective of this study is to examine the contribution of some socioeconomic, demographic and health care factors to the declining trend of maternal mortality ratio MMR in Sudan over the period 1969-2015. The study employs econometric techniques including the OLS, Cointegration methods of Johansen and autoregressive distributed lag ARDL bounds tests and Granger causality analysis. The OLS shows that economic growth measured by GDP has significant bad affect on MRR but it has more significant good effect when measured by GDP per capita GDPP. Declining fertility rates lead to declines in MMR. Health expenditure has no effect on MMR. The ARDL bounds test shows existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between MMR and its explanatory variables. In both the short run and long run, declines in MMR are explained by GDPP and fertility but badly affected by GDP. In contrast, health care factors have no effects on MMR. Granger causality test shows a unidirectional relationship running from economic growth measured by GDP and GDPP to MMR with no sign of feedback effect. Bidirectional relationships between MMR and fertility rate, MMR and health expenditure, as well as between MMR and the number of physicians per 100,000 people have been established. The study recommends that the government should ensure stable and inclusive economic growth. There is a need to increase resources to maternal and reproductive health with emphasis on the number of physicians per 100,000 people in order to move forward to the SDGs.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116705375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting 货币状况指数及其在突尼斯经济预测中的应用

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-01-04 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V5I1.1585

Ali Mna, Moheddine Younsi

{"title":"A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting","authors":"Ali Mna, Moheddine Younsi","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V5I1.1585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V5I1.1585","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this article is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. Our contribution is, firstly, to calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two indicators over the period 1965-2015. Secondly, based on the VAR model, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the selected variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance via their influence on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative impact on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Thirdly, we attempt, through a SVAR model, to examine the short run structural dynamics between the selected variables. Results reveal that the Tunisian economy is highly influenced by external monetary conditions. This influence is demonstrated through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. In conclusion, our findings reflect that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132947216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Markup estimate of industrial branches in Morocco 摩洛哥工业分支的加价估计

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2018-01-03 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1537

Sanae El Ouahabi, A. Bousselhami

{"title":"Markup estimate of industrial branches in Morocco","authors":"Sanae El Ouahabi, A. Bousselhami","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1537","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In this paper, we will present an estimate of the intensity of competition in the different branches of the Moroccan industrial sector, in order to identify the branches that will be the subject of pro-competitive structural reforms, with the aim of strengthening the economic activity and job creation. For each industry, the intensity of competition is evaluated using the estimated margin factor (or markup) estimated from the method proposed by Roeger (1995). The econometric results obtained show that the relatively high margin factor in the \"agrifood\" and \"chemical and parachemical\" branches suggests that these industries are not very competitive over the 1985-2015 period. On the other hand, the branches of \"mechanical, metallic and electrical\" and \"extractive\" industries that have significantly lower markup rates compared to other industries appear to be more competitive. The estimate of margin factors over different periods will allow us to assess the evolution over time of the degree of competition in each of the branches studied. Thus, the estimate of markup rates during the period 1985-1999 remains unclear (the margin factor is significantly lower than 1), hence we need additional information to determine the degree of concentration of industrial branches. For the period 2000-2015, the \"extractive\", \"chemical and parachemical\" and \"agro-food\" branches are less competitive, while the \"mechanical, metal and electrical\" industries appear to be more competitive. Keywords. Morocco, Industrial sector, Industrial branches, Markup, Competition. JEL. L22, L25, L60, L71, O14.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121931301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public revenue, fiscal deficit and economic growth: Evidence from Asian countries 公共收入、财政赤字和经济增长:来自亚洲国家的证据

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2017-12-28 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1482

Jeeban Amgain, Nanda Kumar Dhakal

引用次数: 3

Becoming a world power: The role of infrastructure alliances 成为世界强国:基础设施联盟的作用

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2017-12-28 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V4I3.1400

L. Avendano

引用次数: 0

Migration-driven women’s empowerment: The case of Turkey 移民推动的妇女赋权:以土耳其为例

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2017-12-28 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1528

Şule Akkoyunlu

引用次数: 0

Financial gradualism and banking crises in North Africa region: an investigation by a panel logit model 金融渐进主义与北非地区银行危机:面板logit模型的研究

Journal of Economics and Political Economy Pub Date : 2017-12-28 DOI: 10.1453/JEPE.V4I4.1442

Ahmed Khattab, Abid Ihadiyan

引用次数: 0