Advances and Applications in Statistics最新文献_第3页

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES IN PREDICTION OF COVID-19 MORTALITY AND ITS RELATED FACTORS: A MULTI-CENTER STUDY 人工智能技术预测COVID-19死亡率及其相关因素:一项多中心研究

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723064

Abolfazl Payandeh, Habibollah Esmaily, Masoud Salehi, Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi, Zahra Arab Borzu, Ahmad Bolouri

{"title":"ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES IN PREDICTION OF COVID-19 MORTALITY AND ITS RELATED FACTORS: A MULTI-CENTER STUDY","authors":"Abolfazl Payandeh, Habibollah Esmaily, Masoud Salehi, Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi, Zahra Arab Borzu, Ahmad Bolouri","doi":"10.17654/0972361723064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723064","url":null,"abstract":"Predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models for the assessment of factors and trends related to disease prevalence, prognosis, and the risk prediction of mortality in the early phases, seem to be effective techniques. Machine learning (ML) algorithms as a branch of AI methods have had a considerable role in controlling and management of COVID-19 and previous pandemics. The present study estimates the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients based on ML algorithms, prediction of outcomes in new cases, and also determines the top significant features related to morality in the patients. In this retrospective research, 7115 patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease were included in the study. The information was collected from 35 different hospitals across Khorasan-Razavi province, Northeast of Iran during 20 February 2020 - 21 June 2021. We employed random forests (RF), decision tree (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression (LR), and boosted trees (BT) ML algorithms. Our findings indicated that the RF model had better performance in different criteria. The RF algorithm had area under curve (AUC) of 88%, accuracy of 96%, precision of 96%, sensitivity of 99%, and specificity of 80%. Intubation, SpO2, age, time from symptoms, loss of consciousness, reception season, and diabetes were the seven ordered and significant predictors of the risk of COVID-19 patients’ death. RF model can aid in clinical decision-making and limited resource allocation. This model needs to be externally validated in larger populations, more features, and multicenter settings. Received: August 4, 2023Accepted: September 13, 2023","PeriodicalId":43137,"journal":{"name":"Advances and Applications in Statistics","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135635337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

ESTIMATING BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER OF COVID-19 WITH PARAMETERS OF A STOCHASTIC CHAIN-BINOMIAL MODEL IN THREE REGIONS OF PHILIPPINES 用随机链-二项模型参数估计菲律宾三个地区COVID-19的基本复制数

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723063

Freddy A. Julkanain II, Azman A. Nads

引用次数: 0

ON THE BAYESIAN ZERO-INFLATED SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELLING OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER 登革出血热贝叶斯零膨胀时空模型研究

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723062

Daniel R. Sanson, Daisy Lou Lim-Polestico

{"title":"ON THE BAYESIAN ZERO-INFLATED SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELLING OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER","authors":"Daniel R. Sanson, Daisy Lou Lim-Polestico","doi":"10.17654/0972361723062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723062","url":null,"abstract":"This study focuses on improving the convergence rates of parameter estimates for two Bayesian spatio-temporal models, namely the Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson spatio-temporal (BZIP S-T) distribution and the Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial spatio-temporal (BZINB S-T) distribution, employed for modeling dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data in the Caraga region, Philippines. The predictive performance of these models, incorporating meteorological factors such as rainfall and population density, is enhanced through the implementation of an overrelaxation algorithm designed to expedite convergence. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, specifically utilizing the full conditional distribution, are utilized for parameter estimation. Our findings reveal that the application of the overrelaxation algorithm yields significant improvements in the convergence rates of parameter estimates, with acceleration percentages of up to 67% and 40% observed for the BZIP S-T and BZINB S-T models, respectively. Notably, both the models identify rainfall and population density as statistically significant predictors for DHF case predictions in the Caraga region, Philippines. While the BZINB S-T model exhibits the smallest deviance, both the models prove to be valuable tools for predicting DHF cases in the region, contributing to the advancement of epidemiological research and public health planning. Received: April 4, 2023Revised: September 13, 2023Accepted: September 20, 2023","PeriodicalId":43137,"journal":{"name":"Advances and Applications in Statistics","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

PREDICTING FUTURE DATA FROM GAMMA-MIXTURE AND BETA-MIXTURE DISTRIBUTIONS AND APPLICATION TO THE RECOVERY RATE OF COVID-19 预测γ -混合物和β -混合物分布的未来数据，并将其应用于COVID-19的回收率

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723061

O. M. Khaled, K. S. Khalil, M. H. Harpy

引用次数: 0

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMOTIVATING FACTORS INFLUENCING THE CONSISTENCY OF UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS IN LEARNING ENGLISH LANGUAGE IN KRG OF IRAQ 伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区大学生英语学习一致性影响因素的统计分析

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723059

Shohidahon Nurmatova, Amani Baseem

引用次数: 0

CALCULATING THE SAMPLE SIZE FOR ORDINARY LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATION IN PRESENCE OF MULTICOLLINEARITY 多重共线性下普通最小二乘估计的样本量计算

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723060

O. Oyewole, Adedayo F. Adedotun, J. A. Adeyiga, A. A. Oyewole, Toluwalase J. Akingbade, Oluwatosin O. Onayemi, Onuche G. Odekina

{"title":"CALCULATING THE SAMPLE SIZE FOR ORDINARY LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATION IN PRESENCE OF MULTICOLLINEARITY","authors":"O. Oyewole, Adedayo F. Adedotun, J. A. Adeyiga, A. A. Oyewole, Toluwalase J. Akingbade, Oluwatosin O. Onayemi, Onuche G. Odekina","doi":"10.17654/0972361723060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723060","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between a variable (the response variable) and the scores of several other variables (the independent variables) may be described using multiple linear regression analysis. This study compares the L2 (ridge) shrinkage method and least squares shrinkage method when multicollinearity is present in a dataset across various sample sizes. For different sample sizes $(n = 25, n = 50, n = 200,$ and $n = 1000)$, this process was repeated. The relationship between larger sample sizes and covariance was not linear in the simulated data. The results demonstrated that L2 regression is best and generates parsimonious models in the presence of multicollinearity; the higher the degree of multicollinearity, the smaller the shrinkage parameter. The L2 regularization technique also helps to reduce standard errors of regression coefficients and the prediction error of the generated model. This implies that for every change in the dataset values, there is always an optimal value of the shrinkage parameter that minimizes multicollinearity and produces more stable and reliable regression models. In moderation studies where we would like to keep all of the predictor variables, L2 regularization would be the best alternative. Increasing sample size gives stable results after estimation as it helps to reduce the standard errors of the regression coefficients of the predictor variables. It is also the best method to use for greatly inflated standard errors of OLS regression coefficients. OLS works best for independent samples, but correlated covariates should be handled with modern regression methods (L2). Received: February 24, 2023Revised: May 10, 2023 Accepted: June 7, 2023","PeriodicalId":43137,"journal":{"name":"Advances and Applications in Statistics","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135858506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

GEOSPATIAL MODELLING OF FOREST CARBON STOCKS IN BURKINA FASO, WEST AFRICA 西非布基纳法索森林碳储量的地理空间模拟

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723058

Fabrice Ouoba, Larba Hubert Balima, Hay Yoba Talkibing, Diakarya Barro

{"title":"GEOSPATIAL MODELLING OF FOREST CARBON STOCKS IN BURKINA FASO, WEST AFRICA","authors":"Fabrice Ouoba, Larba Hubert Balima, Hay Yoba Talkibing, Diakarya Barro","doi":"10.17654/0972361723058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723058","url":null,"abstract":"Protected areas in West Africa play a crucial role in climate change mitigation as the major carbon pools. Yet, the spatial distribution of forest carbon stocks is poorly documented, but required for forest management and carbon monitoring. Assessing the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass and carbon stocks is important for the monitoring of carbon sinks and sources within the national adaptation framework. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of tree aboveground carbon stocks in two forests using geostatistical tools. We derived tree aboveground biomass and carbon stocks from two forests using field data of 2844 trees from 174 inventory plots. The distribution of forest carbon stocks was analyzed using geospatial modelling methods. We fitted different variogram models to carbon data and selected the best model for each forest. The best fitted model was then used to predict the spatial distribution of forest carbon stock using geostatistical analysis. The findings showed that the exponential variogram model better explains the spatial dependence of carbon stock in Bontioli forest, whereas the power variogram model better explains the spatial dependence of stock in Nazinga game ranch. The values of carbon density ranged between 10-45 Mg/ha in Nazinga to 18-35 Mg/ha in Bontioli reserve. This study provides a baseline for the geospatial modelling of forest carbon in West African ecosystems. Such studies should be extended to other forests for a better management of forest carbon in the region. Received: May 28, 2023Accepted: July 1, 2023","PeriodicalId":43137,"journal":{"name":"Advances and Applications in Statistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135817822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A NEW WEIGHTED AILAMUJIA DISTRIBUTION WITH ITS PROPERTIES 一个新的加权艾拉木家分布及其性质

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723057

Bader Alruwaili

引用次数: 0

ON COMPOUND POISSON RISK MODEL WITH PARTIAL PREMIUM PAYMENT STRATEGY TO SHAREHOLDERS AND DEPENDENCE BETWEEN CLAIM AMOUNTS AND INTER-CLAIM TIMES THROUGH THE SPEARMAN COPULA 基于spearman联结关系的股东部分保费支付策略及索赔金额与索赔时间依赖关系的复合泊松风险模型

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723056

Kiswendsida Mahamoudou OUEDRAOGO, Francois Xavier OUEDRAOGO, Delwendé Abdoul-Kabir KAFANDO, Pierre Clovis NITIEMA

引用次数: 0

DETERMINING THE PROBABILITIES OF THE OUTCOMES OF LOTTO GAME USING HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION 用超几何分布确定乐透游戏结果的概率

IF 0.2

Advances and Applications in Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.17654/0972361723054

H. Okagbue, A. Opanuga, Oluwatosin M. Fatimehin, O. O. Agboola, T. J. Akingbade

{"title":"DETERMINING THE PROBABILITIES OF THE OUTCOMES OF LOTTO GAME USING HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION","authors":"H. Okagbue, A. Opanuga, Oluwatosin M. Fatimehin, O. O. Agboola, T. J. Akingbade","doi":"10.17654/0972361723054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723054","url":null,"abstract":"The probability density function (PDF) of the hypergeometric is used to model the probability of outcomes of lotto game given some selected predetermined scenarios (K) from (n = 5) samples at the instances of six sample scenarios x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. This is exactly mimicking the Nigerian Premier Lotto game where interested players are expected to choose five random numbers from 1 to 90. That ‘A’ win implies that at least three of the randomly chosen 5 numbers are drawn from the national lotto draw often televised to the players. In this paper, different predetermined scenarios are defined and the probability is computed using the probability density function of the hypergeometric distribution. The data are results from 31625 games played on premier lotto in a span of 3 years. The data are for morning, afternoon, night, in Enugu center, regional and national premier lotto results during the period. The chi-square test of goodness of fit shows that the premier lotto is random, fair, and validates the results of the adoption of the PDF of hypergeometric distribution. Players of lotto games are advised to be aware of the slim chances of winning and play reasonably and sensibly.","PeriodicalId":43137,"journal":{"name":"Advances and Applications in Statistics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47155779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0