{"title":"A feltörekvő piaci szuverénfelár megemelkedése a Covid–19 utáni világgazdaságban","authors":"Sabri Alipanah, Mercédesz Mészáros, G. Kiss","doi":"10.35551/psz_2022_2_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2022_2_4","url":null,"abstract":"A Covid–19 által okozott gazdasági leállások és zavarok nyomán ismét megjelent a leértékelődési nyomás és a szuverénfelár növekedése miatti fenyegetés a feltörekvő piacokon, ami szükségessé teheti a nemzetközi pénzügyi védőháló intézményeinek beavatkozását. Tanulmányunk első felében ezért számba vesszük az IMF és a nyolc regionális pénzügyi alap („Regional Financial Arrangement” – RFA) válságellenes intézkedéseit. Ezt követően megvizsgáljuk, hogyan befolyásolta a feltörekvő piaci szuverénfelár változását a piaci hangulat romlása: a globális gazdasági növekedéssel, a kulcsdevizában történő finanszírozás költségével, az államcsőddel kapcsolatos várakozások és a devizaárfolyam, valamint az output növekedésének változásai. Ehhez strukturális panel vektor autoregressziós modellt használtunk. Megállapíthattuk, hogy a szuverénfelár változása alapvetően a piaci várakozások változását követte le az országspecifikus növekedési és finanszírozási tényezők mellett. Mindez felhívja a figyelmet az IMF-, illetve az RFA-beavatkozások jelentőségére.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69886285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetáris szuverenitás és digitális jegybankpénz","authors":"Gábor Horváth","doi":"10.35551/psz_2022_4_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2022_4_4","url":null,"abstract":"Egy állam tényleges monetáris szuverenitása az állam képessége arra nézve, hogy monetáris irányítási eszközökkel megvalósítsa gazdaságpolitikai céljait. E fogalom túlmutat a vesztfáliai szuverenitás külső beavatkozásoktól mentes diszkréciójának koncepcionálásán, amire a modern pénzügyi rendszer fiat és hitelpénzrendszerek hierarchikus működési komplexitása miatt van szükség. Ugyanakkor a 21. század monetáris kihívásai az államok tényleges monetáris szuverenitását is kikezdhetik, ami azonban a digitális jegybankpénz bevezetésén keresztül részben még megmenthető. A tanulmány tehát a digitális jegybankpénz tényleges monetáris szuverenitásra gyakorolt hatásának különböző területeit veszi sorra, kartalista pénzelméleti kiindulópontot választva. A tanulmány rámutat, hogy e területeken a digitális jegybankpénz javíthat egy nemzetállam tényleges monetáris szuverenitásán.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69886799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Behavioral Aspects of Tax Amnesties and Their Effects in Twelve Countries","authors":"M. Erdoğdu, Sevda Akar","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_2_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_2_7","url":null,"abstract":"This paper overviews the theoretical and empirical research on tax amnesties and weighs their advantages and disadvantages. The paper questions if tax amnesties have any tax compliance impacts in the medium to long term as some papers have claimed or if they are more of a hindrance to tax compliance because of their unjust and degenerating effects. The paper examines the available data for the effects of tax amnesty programs on the ratio of tax revenues to GDP and the Gini coefficient for 12 countries focusing specifically on Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to identify better alternatives to tax amnesties in terms of both tax revenue and tax justice. The results of the study show that while the short-term revenue effect of tax amnesties is uncertain, their medium and long-term negative effects on tax justice and income distribution are almost certain. In addition, the study reveals that improving tax revenue is hardly the main reason behind most tax amnesties.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69882641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ambivalent Change in CDS Spreads in 11 Euro Area Countries","authors":"L. Török","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_1_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_1_6","url":null,"abstract":"One of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic is that the global economy has seen a robust increase in the countries‘ gross external debt and the sovereign public debt that is part of it. Nor have the eurozone Member States escaped this effect. The increase in gross external debt and sovereign government debt also means that it has become theoretically more risky for investors to buy debt securities (typically bonds). Theoretically, however, it follows that as a result of the increase in risks in the country, CDS spreads had to rise as well. The study uses a correlation calculation to show that the development of the price of CDSs is more closely correlated with gross government debt than with gross external debt. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, the study groups the countries of the Eurozone. The basis for clustering is the close relationship between a country‘s gross government debt and its CDS spread over the period under review. A relevant conclusion of the study is that the increase in gross government debt was not followed by an increase in CDS spreads because the financial source of the increase in government debt was different from previous years.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69882782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Central Bank Digital Currency: A New Instrument of Monetary Policy","authors":"B. Kóczián, A. Kollarik, Lóránt Kiss, P. Simon","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_4_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_4_3","url":null,"abstract":"Central bank digital currency is a claim on the central bank, which is accessible by a wide range of customers, digital, flexible and potentially interest-bearing. The new asset is being researched in many countries, and widening the accessibility of financial services, creating the digitalized form of cash with monetary policy considerations being among its motivations. An interest-bearing central bank digital currency could make the central bank’s monetary transmission direct, which could improve the efficiency of monetary policy. Furthermore, the asset could help to strengthen competition among banks and could support the spread of financial innovations. Risks related to the instrument, such as disintermediation, can be counterbalanced by the increasing deposit volumes due to higher interest rates after the introduction of the instrument, and by limits set on the maximum holdings of the asset. An interest-bearing central bank digital currency can make targeted monetary policy possible, furthermore, the direct transmission of interest rates could enhance the efficiency of monetary transmission.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessment of Audit Activities in the Public Administration with a Focus on the Types of Audits : Practice in the Public Sector of the V4 Countries","authors":"Lenka Hudáková Stašová","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_3_8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_3_8","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on audits of public administrations performed by Supreme Audit Offices (SAO). The aim of the paper is to assess the performance of audit activities by the highest audit institutions in the Visegrad Four (V4) countries with a focus on the types of audits performed (compliance audits, performance audits, financial audits) in the period of 2005-2020. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Spearman’s correlation coefficient were used to test the set hypotheses. The study focuses on the relationships between the number of audits performed (especially compliance audits and performance audits) and the volume of audit findings, recommendations and actions. Compliance audits predominate in the Slovak Republic and Hungary. However, the current trend is to gradually increase the share of performance audits. Most performance audits were carried out in the Czech Republic. The analysis found a statistically significant relationship between the number of performance audits performed and the number of auditors’ recommendations in Poland and Hungary. In addition there is a statistically significant relationship between the number of performance audits performed and the number of audit findings in Poland and the Czech Republic.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Some Taxonomic Elements of the Internal Control of Public Finances and Experiences of Teaching them at the University of Public Service","authors":"C. Lentner","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_s_1_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_s_1_1","url":null,"abstract":"The study focuses on internal control within the area of public finance control, the comprehensive reform of which started in 2010. The aim is to draw attention to the legal background of the internal controls of budgetary organisations and how to improve the efficiency of the use of public funds. The paper addresses in detail the requirements arising from European and Hungarian legal standards, the connection with other control aggregates of public finances and taxonomic relationships. The study outlines the regulation and methodological background of internal audit. An additional unique feature of the study is that it presents the educational system of fiscal and internal audit training for government officials at the National University of Public Service and the scientific summary of experiences resulting from the questionnaire survey of graduates.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparison of Economic Cycles of the Slovak Economy and Other Visegrad Four Countries","authors":"Eleonóra Matoušková","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2022_3_9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2022_3_9","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to compare the course of economic cycle in the Slovak economy with the economic cycles of the other three Visegrad Four (V4) countries for the period 2003–2021. The comparison was carried out on the basis of monitoring gross domestic product, unemployment rate and the individual components of aggregate demand developments. In the period reviewed, we saw three phases of economic growth and two phases of economic downturn in these countries. The first economic crisis caused by the global financial crisis occurred in the V4 countries in 2009. GDP decreased the most in Hungary, slightly less in Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The economic downturn avoided Poland, where there was only a slowdown in growth. In 2020, the economies of all V4 countries were affected by the coronavirus crisis, with real GDP falling in each of them. In the Slovak Republic, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the decrease in GDP was around 5 per cent, in Poland it was less (–2.7%). The measures taken by governments and the improvement of the health situation helped to revive the growth of the economies of the V4 countries in 2021.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bankrobotika: mesterséges intelligencia és gépi tanulás alapú banki kockázatkezelés : Pénzmosás és terrorizmusfinanszírozás megakadályozása","authors":"Alexandra Prisznyák","doi":"10.35551/psz_2022_2_8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2022_2_8","url":null,"abstract":"A Pénzügyi Akciócsoport pénzmosással és terrorizmusfinanszírozással összefüggő országvizsgálat alapján leminősítette Magyarország R15-ajánlásnak (új technológiák alkalmazása) való megfelelését. Ezzel párhuzamosan a Magyar Nemzeti Bank 2020–2021 között számos, Magyarországon működő kereskedelmi bank esetében állapított meg bírságot a pénzmosás és terrorizmusfinanszírozás megelőzésével kapcsolatos hiányosságok miatt. A tanulmány hiánypótló elemzésként a banki kockázatkezelés, pénzmosás és terrorizmusfinanszírozás megelőzésért felelős területek nagymértékben kiegyensúlyozatlan adatállományán operáló felügyelt (osztályzás, regresszió), felügyelet nélküli (klaszteranalízis, anomália-észlelés) és hibrid gépi tanulási modelleket, alkalmazott algoritmusokat vizsgálja. A szerző hangsúlyozza, hogy nincs egyetlen ideális algoritmus. A választást a mögöttes működési logika mellett számos összehasonlító tényező támogatja. A modellépítés az üzleti IT- és vizionárius menedzsment hibrid szempontjainak kialakítását igényli.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69886757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Az egyéni pénzügyi döntéseket determináló szocializáció a pénzügyi műveltség aspektusából","authors":"Ágnes Csiszárik-Kocsir","doi":"10.35551/psz_2022_4_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2022_4_6","url":null,"abstract":"A tudatos pénzügyi döntéshozatal és működés olyan tanult elemek összessége, amelyek átadása nem elsősorban az iskolai oktatás feladata. A pénzügyi viselkedésformák nagy része a szocializációs folyamat eredménye, amelynek elsődleges színtere a család és az egyén szűkebb környezete. A jelen tanulmány célja, hogy megvizsgálja a pénzügyi műveltség és a pénzügyi szocializáció egyes színtereit és ez utóbbiaknak a későbbi pénzügyi döntéshozatalra gyakorolt hatását egy kérdőíves kutatás eredményei alapján. A tanulmány arra keresi a választ, hogy a pénzügyi szocializáció milyen bizalmi alapokat alakít ki az egyénekben, avagy kik azok az elsődleges szereplők, akiknek a tanácsára támaszkodnak és hagyatkoznak a egyének a saját pénzügyi döntéseik meghozatala során. A tanulmányban bemutatott, 2022-ben 3515 fő részvételével megvalósított kérdőíves kutatás részeredményeit kereszttábla-elemzéssel feldolgozva bizonyítást nyert, hogy a pénzügyi döntéshozatalban erőteljes a szülői segítségnyújtásra való hagyatkozás. Ez az eredmény ugyan generációnként – az élethelyzetbeli sajátosságok miatt – változik, de a fiatalabb válaszadók esetén egyértelmű a szülői háttér fontossága. Az is bizonyítást nyert, hogy a vállalati pénzügyi szocializáció – így a későbbi tanácsadás – fontosabb, mint az iskolai színtér, ami a pénzügyi oktatás iskolai erősítésére hívja fel a figyelmet. Arra is fény derült, hogy a kutatásban részt vevő válaszadók a tanácsadás szempontjából egyáltalán nem tekintik hiteles forrásnak az internetes forrásokat, ami a pénzügyi tudatosságukat erősíti.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69887028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}