{"title":"The (non) impact of education on marital dissolution","authors":"Edith Aguirre","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.1803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.1803","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the relevant role attributed to education on marital outcomes, literature does not show a generalized consensus regarding a positive or negative effect from education on marital decisions. In this paper the impact of education on marriage dissolution is analysed exploiting a change in the length of compulsory education in Mexico in 1993 as an instrument for education. The federal government increased compulsory education from completion of primary school, sixth grade, to completion of secondary school, ninth grade, at a national level. In the first part of the analysis, the probit models reveal that education is significant and negatively related to the probability of marital breakdown. An additional year of education is associated with a decrease between 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points in the probability of marital disruption for the 2002-2012 period. However, the results using the instrumental variables methodology indicate that an additional year of schooling has no effect on the probability of marriage dissolution. This finding demonstrates that the relationship between education and divorce is not causal and suggests that although higher levels of education are an undeniable trait observed in non-broken marriages, it is not education by itself one of the mechanisms leading to better marriage outcomes.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46487908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Demand for Money in Greece After Euro Area and Policy Uncertainties","authors":"S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.4052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4052","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the asymmetric effects of uncertainties in monetary policy on the demand for money in Greece. In doing so, it introduces and uses the monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) index, which can probably be a very appropriate and robust explanatory variable in demand-for-money models. Therefore, this study with this index differs from previous empirical studies that use conventional uncertainty-based independent variables. Empirical findings of both models indicate that changes in the MPU index have significant effects on Greek money demand. Additionally, compendious inferences of the nonlinear model for the Greek people’s financial preferences are as follow as: (i): Greek people invest more in alternative financial instruments and/or spend their money rather than hold (demand) it when the MPU index rises, (ii): Greek people’s money demand in both increases and decreases in the MPU index is predominantly determined by longer-term bond rate changes.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66903044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Nexus between Causal Macroeconomic Relations in Japan","authors":"G. Zestos, Yixiao Jiang, Ryan D. Patnode","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.4017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4017","url":null,"abstract":"Japan achieved phenomenal economic growth after WWII. Starting in the early 1990s, however, the Japanese economy began experiencing a prolonged deflation-stagnation period widely known as the “Lost Decades”. Based on data from the World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, this paper employs an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model to find evidence of a long run relation among the real GDP, real imports, the real exchange rate, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio for Japan. Once cointegration is established with the Bounds Test, Granger Causality tests are performed by employing an estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with the same variables. The empirical results support Granger causality in all directions. In particular, we found real imports and public debt-to-GDP ratio to directly cause real GDP. Interestingly, the real exchange rate causes real GDP indirectly via imports. The public debt had a negative effect on GDP but did not wreak havoc on the Japanese economy. The study also examines whether former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s unprecedented macroeconomic policies and structural reforms launched in 2013, known as Abenomics, are pulling Japan out of its economic doldrums.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41704453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and the Robustness of Host-Country Commitment","authors":"Shaikh Shahnawaz","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.3582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.3582","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model of a forward-looking government wooing foreign direct investment by enacting policies that reflect its commitment to the foreign enterprise. The ease with which the government is able to spend or carry out economic reform to complement the foreign venture evolves over time and influences the likelihood of its sustained commitment. The domestic and external strength of the government, the stability and not necessarily the level of returns from the project, venture-specificity of government spending or reform, and public and elite attitudes toward foreign commercial entry determine how invested the government remains in the long term success of the enterprise. More committed governments tend to be stronger and prefer robust investor-regime relationships. Reform that is not designed too narrowly to favor the investor is also less likely to be reversed later. Like pro-FDI public sentiment, a noisy policy environment induces deeper government commitment.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43409560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public Health Shock, Intervention Policies, and Health Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19","authors":"Samira Hasanzadeh, Modjgan Alishahi","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.4787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4787","url":null,"abstract":"In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries, including the U.S., adopted intervention policies aimed at averting the spread. However, these policies may have led to significant changes in public health behaviors. We use Google search queries to examine how state government actions are associated with people’s internet searches (internet browsing habits) related to health behaviors. We employ the differences-in-differences method to determine the link between disease outbreak, associated intervention policies, and changes in health behavior related searches. Our findings show that school closures, restaurant restrictions, and stay-at-home orders lead to a significant rise in searches for workout, physical activity, exercise, takeout, liquor, and wine. Moreover, people’s concerns regarding weight loss, diet, nutrition, restaurant, and fast food substantially decline following stay-at-home orders. Our event-study results indicate that changes in health behaviors began weeks before stay-at-home orders were implemented contemporaneously with emergency declarations and other partial closures. These findings suggest that people’s health behaviors are notably affected by state government’s intervention policies.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41869626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ethnic Inequality and Anti-authoritarianism in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Karim Nchare, Moses Ogeny","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.4789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4789","url":null,"abstract":"Is ethnic inequality associated with aversion to authoritarian regimes and increase support for democracy as a means of influencing redistribution? Using four rounds of Afrobarometer panel data, covering 29 African countries and 353 distinct ethnic groups, and an ordered logistic model, we show that a rise in Between-ethnic inequality (BGI) is associated with an increase support for anti-authoritarianism and that its effects strengthen as Within-ethnic inequality (WGI) decreases. We find that individuals most strongly support democracy when ethnic identity is reinforced by economic inequality. We also show that support for a change of regime is reinforced when some ethnic groups believe they are politically excluded from government.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41770007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Special issue: ICEA Public Policy Lesson conference, part of the After the Pandemic Conference Series","authors":"J. Konieczny","doi":"10.15353/rea.v14i1.4785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4785","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 Pandemic has been a singular event that affected health, economic situation and social cohesion around the world.\u0000The International Centre for Economic Analysis (ICEA), has organized the After the Pandemic Conference Series. The conferences in the series are devoted to analyzing various aspects of the pandemic and their long-term consequences. Conference participants were offered the opportunity to submit their papers to the Review of Economic Analysis, which is the official journal of the ICEA.\u0000The papers in this special issue (or their earlier versions) were presented at the Public Policy Lessons Conference, the third conference in the series, which was held online Nov 12-13, 2021. The program of the conference can be found here.\u0000The list of conferences, and details, is on the ICEA website, https://ICEAnet.org.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49115116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Role of Social Media in Socioeconomic Development: Case of Facebook","authors":"N. Amrouche, M. Hababou","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i3.4054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i3.4054","url":null,"abstract":"To study the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on countries’ socioeconomic development, the paper investigates the case of Facebook penetration on improving their standing as measured via GNI per capita PPP (Gross National Income per capita based on purchasing power parity). We use four macro factors categories (political, economic, demographic, and technological) in addition to Facebook penetration per capita in order to measure the potential influence of various factors on the socioeconomic level of countries. While the analyses of ICT effect on development has been the focus of many papers in the past, the specific analysis of social media is scarce. Compared to previous studies investigating social media role, we use a large dataset covering all classes of countries and examine holistically many types of determinants using different models. In addition, we distinguish our paper using the economic classification of countries according to the World Bank. Our study indicates that Facebook penetration has a significant positive role on the socioeconomic level of countries, but such role varies depending on the countries’ classification level. Besides, there is a decreasing marginal effect showing the importance for policy makers to assess the complex dynamic behind the characteristic of each country.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47797914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shape Evolution of the Interest Rate Term Structure","authors":"Biwei Chen","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i3.4698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i3.4698","url":null,"abstract":"This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically linked to the recessions in the post-WWII data. In forecasting recessions, the median-short yield spread trumps the long-short spread for horizons up to 17 months ahead and the yield curve shape is nearly impressive as the median-short spread. Overall, the yield curve shape is an informative but more succinct indicator than the spreads in studying the term structure. Key words: Business cycle, recession forecast, U.S. Treasury yield curve, yield spreads.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46174952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Distributional Outcomes of Policy-Induced Entrepreneurial Opportunities","authors":"Hal W. Snarr, D. Friesner","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i3.3510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i3.3510","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis empirically evaluates the effectiveness of entrepreneurial policies using the number and distribution of firms as outcome variables. The analysis occurs within the context of a natural experiment: the START-UP NY program. Implemented in 2014, START-UP NY created enterprise development zones adjacent to publicly supported universities (i.e., SUNY and CUNY campuses) within the state. New business start-ups operating within these zones, and within a specific set of technology and health-related industries received tax incentives that substantially lowered tax rates for a 5-10 year period. In 2016, the State of New York substantially altered its corporate tax structure; a policy initiative affecting firms, business owners, and households in the state simultaneously, and may also induce entrepreneurship. The results suggest that START-UP NY had a positive effect on the growth of New York's micro and small-sized firms operating in professional, scientific, and technical industries. START-UP NY also negatively affected micro-sized manufacturing firms, while positively affecting small manufacturing firms. The latter finding suggests that START-UP NY is effective in incubating micro-sized manufacturing firms that eventually grow into small manufacturing firms.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43928785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}