日本宏观经济因果关系的内在联系

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
G. Zestos, Yixiao Jiang, Ryan D. Patnode
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引用次数: 0

摘要

日本在二战后取得了惊人的经济增长。然而,从20世纪90年代初开始,日本经济开始经历一段被称为“失去的几十年”的长期通货紧缩停滞期。基于世界银行和圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据,本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来寻找日本实际GDP、实际进口、实际汇率和公共债务与GDP之比之间长期关系的证据。一旦协整与边界检验建立,格兰杰因果检验采用估计向量自回归(VAR)模型与相同的变量进行。实证结果全面支持格兰杰因果关系。特别是,我们发现实际进口和公共债务占GDP的比例直接影响实际GDP。有趣的是,实际汇率通过进口间接影响实际GDP。公共债务对GDP产生了负面影响,但并未对日本经济造成严重破坏。这项研究还考察了前首相安倍晋三(shinzo Abe)在2013年推出的前所未有的宏观经济政策和结构性改革,即所谓的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics),是否正在将日本从经济低迷中拉出来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Nexus between Causal Macroeconomic Relations in Japan
Japan achieved phenomenal economic growth after WWII. Starting in the early 1990s, however, the Japanese economy began experiencing a prolonged deflation-stagnation period widely known as the “Lost Decades”. Based on data from the World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, this paper employs an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model to find evidence of a long run relation among the real GDP, real imports, the real exchange rate, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio for Japan. Once cointegration is established with the Bounds Test, Granger Causality tests are performed by employing an estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with the same variables. The empirical results support Granger causality in all directions. In particular, we found real imports and public debt-to-GDP ratio to directly cause real GDP. Interestingly, the real exchange rate causes real GDP indirectly via imports. The public debt had a negative effect on GDP but did not wreak havoc on the Japanese economy. The study also examines whether former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s unprecedented macroeconomic policies and structural reforms launched in 2013, known as Abenomics, are pulling Japan out of its economic doldrums.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
26 weeks
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