{"title":"Research on Fault Prognostic of Photovoltaic System Based on LSTM-SA","authors":"Y.J Huang, S.N Zhang, X. Xu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944602","url":null,"abstract":"In the fault prognostic of photovoltaic systems, it is difficult to establish mathematical or physical models of complex components or systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model of LSTM-SA, based on the principle of self-attention(SA) mechanism and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, combining the idea of self-attention and LSTM for timing problems processing capability to prognosticate faults of different equipment. Experimental verification of LSTM, LSTM-SA, BPNN and RNN models using the data of#102, #110 and #519 equipment respectively shows that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the model based on LSTM-SA is lower than that of the other three models in sunny days, indicating that the LSTM model with self-attention mechanism is optimized. Finally, the mixed model based on LSTM-SA is used to prognosticate the fault of different devices. The results are as follows: the fault of the #611 device at the 136th time point, and the fault of the #513 device at the 187th time point.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128055613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on a Combination of ARMA and Degradation Model","authors":"R. Jiao, X. Ma, L. Li, J. Xiao","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944596","url":null,"abstract":"The remaining useful life (RUL) of batteries is an important and helpful reference for battery management system. Since autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a relatively mature time series analysis method for prognostics, the long-term prediction results are not reliable due to dynamic noise and constantly cumulative system errors. In order to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction for battery RUL, a method combining ARMA and exponential degradation model is proposed in this paper. A case study using battery dataset from CALCE is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method gives better prediction accuracy.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125854464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Efficient Metamodel-based Method for Integrating Low-fidelity and High-fidelity Data on Reliability Evaluation","authors":"Bowen Li, Bingyi Li, X. Jia, Z. Cheng, B. Guo","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944593","url":null,"abstract":"Since the physical structure and mathematical models are more complex, reliability analysis in practical engineering can be expensive and difficult. A two-level multifidelity metamodel method for reliability analysis is introduced. Following the surrogate model in most of the relevant works, low-fidelity data and high-fidelity data are integrated by co-Kriging model. Besides, the co-Kriging model also provide an approximation for initial performance function. Bayesian method is adopted in model solution and a hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is proposed. High-fidelity response of reliability performance function is estimated by the conditional distribution derivation based on Bayesian theory. Failure domain is identified by indicator function in sampling space that consists of samples derived from MCMC. Accordingly, failure probability estimations are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is demonstrated through an illustrative example that the proposed method is valid and accurate.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130479515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Improved FMEA Method Based on Performance Degradation Analysis for Offshore Wind Turbine Blade Trailing Edge","authors":"Zheng Liu, Zhenfeng He, Yongjie Li, Liang Tu, Conggui Chen","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944589","url":null,"abstract":"There are lots of performance degradation failure modes in offshore wind turbine blade trailing edge, such as stiffness degradation, strength reduction, et al. The occurrence and severity of such failure modes can't be easily determined, and the traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method is difficult to be applied. Considering the fact, an improved FMEA method based on performance degradation analysis is proposed for wind turbine blade trailing edge, in which the RPNs are calculated by new methods. Specifically, a performance parameter degradation model is established based on random processes, then the occurrence of each failure mode of that is assessed; The Pearson correlation coefficient of each failure mode and each performance parameter is calculated, then the calculation method of severity is given; Here the detection method of each performance degradation failure mode is assumed to be mature, thus the detections are considered equal. This research can provide reliability analysis methods for complex systems with performance degradation failure modes.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131986545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Warranty Cost Models for Products Protected by Lemon Laws Considering Mutual Failure Interaction","authors":"B. P. Iskandar, Fakhri I. Alifin, H. Husniah","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944599","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we develop warranty cost models for a warranted product that is also protected by lemon laws. The product is viewed as a multi-component system consisting of critical (C) and non-critical (NC) components. We model failure process of each type of components, which considers a bidirectional (or mutual) failure interaction between the C and NC components. Hence, each component has two types of failures -i.e., natural failure and induced failure. The product is declared a lemon if the recurrent failures of C or NC component occur - i.e., when the number of the C or NC component failures reaches the threshold value, k. If a lemon is declared, the manufacturer will provide either a refund or a replacement to the consumer. Then, we develop the warranty cost models for the two cases (i.e., refund and replacement cases) and find the optimal lemon law period that minimizes the expected warranty cost rate. The numerical examples are provided to illustrate the expected warranty cost and the optimal lemon law period.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123066330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jie Hong, Jie Zhang, Qi Qiu, Angang Ma, Meng Li, Shiyu Yan, Helin Gong
{"title":"A Dynamic Recognition Method of Metamorphic Relation Identification","authors":"Jie Hong, Jie Zhang, Qi Qiu, Angang Ma, Meng Li, Shiyu Yan, Helin Gong","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944595","url":null,"abstract":"Metamorphic testing is one of the effective methods to alleviate the test oracle problem. Metamorphic relation is the core of metamorphic testing, and there is no effective automatic identification technology. This paper transforms the metamorphic relation recognition issue into a symbolic expression regression problem. The test input pairs are generated using the preset input pattern, and the output pattern is mined by gene expression programming. After reduction and verification, a valid metamorphic relation is obtained. Experiments show that this method can identify the relation obtained by static analysis and a more significant number. At the same time, compared with existing technologies, it has apparent advantages in effectiveness, reliability, and performance.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124187016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Computationally Efficient Link Criticality Ranking with Perception Error and Route Overlapping for Road Transport Networks","authors":"D. Kurmankhojayev, G. Li, A. Chen","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944582","url":null,"abstract":"In real-size congested road networks, ranking links with respect to their criticalities while capturing dependence of link travel costs on user behavior and travel demand is not an easy task. The existing measures either require multiple traffic assignments (i.e., full-scan) or make strong assumptions on users' rationality while using a single traffic assignment. In this study, we propose an improved link criticality index that not only alleviates the computational burden associated with the full-scan network efficiency measures, but also accounts for travelers' perception error and route overlap. The proposed link criticality index is based on the resulting stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) model with a specific discrete choice model. Particularly, we adopt the path-size logit (PSL) route choice model in the SUE model, in which a path-size factor resolves the route overlapping issue by adjusting the choice probabilities for routes with strong correlations. To solve the traffic assignment, we use a faster gradient projection algorithm based on Barzilai-Borwein step size determination scheme (GP-BB). Numerical experiments are conducted to verify and demonstrate the properties of the proposed link criticality measure with the loophole network.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121203876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Systematic Method for Identifying Safety-related Faults in Formal Specifications Using FTA","authors":"Wen Jiang, Shaoying Liu, A. Liu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944610","url":null,"abstract":"The potential hazard in the formal specification of safety-critical systems is likely to cause the failure of the corresponding system that may lead to a catastrophic disaster. How to accurately identify the hazard-related faults in software is still a difficult problem. In this paper, we propose a systematic method for detecting potential hazards in formal specifications using fault tree analysis. Using this approach to a given formal specification, a fault tree will be constructed based on the structure of the specification. We discuss the rules for constructing fault tree analysis that are established based on various structures of specifications. A case study is conducted to demonstrate how the proposed approach works in practice.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131395232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Weiwei Duan, W. Dai, Shih-Mine Guo, Wei Shi, Tong Li
{"title":"Sensitive Features Extraction of Wear Monitoring Signals Based on Wavelet Packet Energy Spectrum","authors":"Weiwei Duan, W. Dai, Shih-Mine Guo, Wei Shi, Tong Li","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944608","url":null,"abstract":"Tool condition monitoring is an essential issue in manufacturing process quality improvement, and there exist numerous sources of tool condition information. Force signals, vibration signals and acoustic emission signals are widely considered to be effective for identifying tool wear conditions, but the dilemma of redundant information is still hardly avoided. Therefore, to extract effective information of tool wear, this paper proposes a method to identify sensitive frequency band in the milling process based on wavelet packet energy spectrum. First, wavelet packet is proposed to decompose the vibration signal into multiple frequency bands. In addition, wavelet singular entropy is proposed to select appropriate decomposition parameters as well, so that weak vibration signals can be effectively extracted. Subsequently, the energy information is obtained from the decomposed frequency bands as characteristic parameters. Then identify the frequency bands sensitive to tool wear with Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, PHM2010 datasets are used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, and the results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method in practice for sensitive frequency band identification of tool wear.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131720251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Utilisation of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis for Risk Assessment of Offshore Wind Farm Construction","authors":"J. H. Zhang, Y. J. Wang, Z. Shi, Y. Q. Sun","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS55680.2022.9944551","url":null,"abstract":"To prevent accidents in the construction stage of an offshore wind farm (OWF), this paper proposes the fuzzy fault tree analysis method to evaluate the safety of OWF. The kernel of the proposed method is to identify the risk factors leading to accidents in the construction stage of OWF using historic accident data and expert investigation, so as to establish the OWF fault tree in the construction stage. The basic event probability obtained by using fuzzy numbers instead of incomplete data is used to iteratively solve the risk level of the top event, and the Fussell-Vesely importance (FV-I) is employed to evaluate the contribution of each basic event. The result demonstrates that the fuzzy fault tree in the construction stage of OWF cannot only identify the risk factors but also give comprehensive evaluation opinions.","PeriodicalId":421500,"journal":{"name":"2022 13th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134023888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}