Utilisation of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis for Risk Assessment of Offshore Wind Farm Construction

J. H. Zhang, Y. J. Wang, Z. Shi, Y. Q. Sun
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

To prevent accidents in the construction stage of an offshore wind farm (OWF), this paper proposes the fuzzy fault tree analysis method to evaluate the safety of OWF. The kernel of the proposed method is to identify the risk factors leading to accidents in the construction stage of OWF using historic accident data and expert investigation, so as to establish the OWF fault tree in the construction stage. The basic event probability obtained by using fuzzy numbers instead of incomplete data is used to iteratively solve the risk level of the top event, and the Fussell-Vesely importance (FV-I) is employed to evaluate the contribution of each basic event. The result demonstrates that the fuzzy fault tree in the construction stage of OWF cannot only identify the risk factors but also give comprehensive evaluation opinions.
模糊故障树分析在海上风电场建设风险评估中的应用
为了防止海上风电场在建设阶段发生事故,提出了模糊故障树分析法对海上风电场的安全性进行评价。该方法的核心是利用历史事故数据和专家调查,识别出OWF施工阶段的事故风险因素,从而建立OWF施工阶段的故障树。利用模糊数代替不完全数据得到的基本事件概率迭代求解顶级事件的风险等级,并采用Fussell-Vesely重要性(FV-I)评价各基本事件的贡献。结果表明,模糊故障树在OWF构建阶段既能识别风险因素,又能给出综合评价意见。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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