ERN: National Budget最新文献

{"title":"The Core, the Periphery, and the Disaster: Corporate-Sovereign Nexus in COVID-19 Times","authors":"Ruggero Jappelli, L. Pelizzon, Alberto Plazzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3823385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3823385","url":null,"abstract":"We show that the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a surge in the elasticity of non-financial corporate to sovereign credit default swaps in core EU countries, characterized by strong fiscal capacity. For peripheral countries with lower budgetary slackness, the pandemic had essentially no impact on such elasticity. This evidence is consistent with the disaster-induced repricing of government support, which we model through a rare-disaster asset pricing framework with bailout guarantees and defaultable public debt. The model implies that risk-adjusted guarantees in the core were 2.6 times those in the periphery, suggesting that fiscal capacity buffers provide relief to firms’ financing costs.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133107906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bank Capital, Government Bond Holdings, and Sovereign Debt Capacity","authors":"Matteo Crosignani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2432711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2432711","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I develop a model where the sovereign debt capacity depends on the capitalization of domestic banks. Low-capital banks optimally tilt their government bond portfolio toward domestic securities, linking their destiny to that of the sovereign. If the sovereign risk is sufficiently high, low-capital banks lend less to the productive sector to further increase their holdings of domestic government bonds, lowering sovereign yields. In this case, a government that regulates bank capital faces a trade-off. On the one hand, high-capital banks lend more to the productive sector. On the other hand, low-capital banks support the home sovereign debt capacity.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123137514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cost of Austerity: Effect of Fiscal Consolidation in Europe Post 2010","authors":"Nelson Rayl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3596470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596470","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of fiscal consolidation on GDP per capita following the 2008 Financial Crisis and European Debt Crisis. I use the synthetic control method to assess the GDP performance of three European countries that pursued large quantities of fiscal consolidation: Greece, Spain and Italy. I estimate that without fiscal consolidation GDP per capita would have been 30, 11, and 17 percent higher in each country respectively.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123989084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effectiveness and Equity in Social Spending - The Case of Spain","authors":"S. Vtyurina","doi":"10.5089/9781513526003.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513526003.001","url":null,"abstract":"Spain is experiencing sustained economic and social disparities in several areas. Social spending policies have a heightened responsibility to respond but are challenged by high public debt and pressures from an aging society. This study takes stock of the level and effectiveness of public social expenditure from a cross-country and macroeconomic view, complementing recent targeted spending reviews. The results suggest that social protection spending should aim to improve redistribution through better targeting the most vulnerable while more effective education and active labor market policies should aim to create more equal opportunities and income prospects. In some areas more fiscal resources are needed. But social spending alone cannot reduce inequality, and efforts also should be directed toward making the labor market more inclusive.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"35 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113956939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Taking the Measure of Changing Labour Mobilization at the International Labour Organisation in the Wake of the Sovereign Debt Crisis","authors":"C. Kilpatrick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3378990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3378990","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis investigates changing mobilisation at the ILO in response to the labour and social rights shock created by EU and IMF demands in the EU sovereign debt crisis (Crisis Europe or euro-crisis). By mobilisation I mean the purposeful use of legal norms and institutions by social movements and civil society groups to advance identified policy goals. It can be contrasted with the use of legal norms and institutions by individuals or entities to settle disputes affecting them. After introducing relevant features of euro-crisis and the ILO, it develops an analysis that measures changing mobilisation at the ILO during euro-crisis. It then shows how such an analysis makes two key contributions: firstly, to our understanding of the ILO and, secondly, to how we approach mobilisation. Firstly, by viewing the ILO as a rights mobilisation structure, it shows the vitality and interest of doubted or neglected ILO supervision and complaints mechanisms. Five elements are underlined: the ILO is more than existing literature assumes; it questions the depiction of the ILO as a ‘toothless tiger’; the sharp divide between unions and NGOs is overstated; certain institutional design features make the ILO a good venue for transnational mobilization; the ILO is not transparent in terms of access to documents relevant to mobilization and compares poorly in this respect with UN Human Rights Treaty Bodies. Secondly, by setting it against existing literature, I show how the angle of measuring mobilisation is distinctive within the broader human rights mobilisation scholarship. The most important insights it introduces are: rejecting the assumption that mobilisation inevitably follows a significant rights shock such as euro-crisis; addressing the puzzles of union ‘mobilisation’ and motivation; operationalising measurement of mobilisation against the backdrop of venue choices; considering how to deal with an international organisation which is both a mobilisation venue and an engaged actor.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134223302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government Bailout of Distressed States in Nigeria: An Analysis of the 2015 Fiscal Crisis","authors":"F. Adedoyin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3342552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3342552","url":null,"abstract":"Recent developments in the global economy, particularly in the year 2015, grossly affected developing countries. Examples of which include the happenings in the crude oil market, where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was unable to reach an agreement amongst its member countries, while Non-OPEC producers, such as the US, were not prepared to cut down on production, Iran’s nuclear deal, amongst others. The overall effect has been negative as indicated by the performance of most developing economies, which rely heavily on crude oil. The Nigerian economy is one of such economies affected by these developments. State governments became unable to pay salary and pension arrears alongside huge debts and falling internally generated revenue, hence the call for a bailout. This study is a step in that direction. It sought to answer the question of whether the bailout reward inefficiency and/or depleted the federal government revenue base without any potential benefits; if it followed any specific principle of public policy in Nigeria or not; and how far the bailout package helped resolve the state fiscal crisis and to what extent have the state governments enlarge their internal revenue base. Also, whether the bailout fund was an economic policy aimed at having real social welfare effects or a means for seeking a political alliance with opposing state governments as well as strengthening internal bond within the ruling party? This study is a descriptive analysis of secondary data on the fiscal stance of Nigeria. It considered states affected by the fiscal crisis, their debt profile and levels of IGR for the periods 2014 to 2015, as well as the amount of bailout applied for, amount of debt restructured, and amount of bailout finally approved and paid by the Federal Government. The data are sourced from the CBN official website, monthly economic reports, the Ministry of Finance, Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, National Bureau of Statistics and Debt Management Office (DMO) Official. The analysis is predominantly qualitative and not quantitative and uses secondary data. The researcher computed the fiscal sustainability index of each state as an indicative policy basis for disbursement of the bailout fund. Based on the sustainability index, the interpolation of financial data of government revenue revealed that a gap between revenue and expenditure should not be immediately fed by debt, especially where there are other sources of revenue available to state governments. Hence, when a state is still fiscally sustainable, an option of debt is not practicable. The study, therefore, raised several bailout policy issues. This is because ethically, problem-solving via bailout funds may be costlier than estimated benefits. Therefore, politicking for a bailout-free economic structure at least for most states if not all the state governments in Nigeria is researchable. Such an economic structure is challenging to economic polic","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128293669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mutual Funding","authors":"Javier Gil-Bazo, P. Hoffmann, S. Mayordomo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2541458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2541458","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Using data on Spanish mutual funds, we show that bank-affiliated funds provide funding support to their parent company via purchases of bonds in the primary market. Support from affiliated funds is more sizeable in crisis times and for riskier banks. These trades generate negative abnormal returns and thus benefit banks at the expense of fund investors. To minimize negative effects on their asset management business, banks concentrate the burden of funding support in funds without performance fees and those catering to retail investors. We provide evidence consistent with funding support helping to limit credit rationing over the 2008–2012 period.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133938845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Sovereign Debt Ratings on Euro Area Cross-Border Holdings of Euro Area Sovereign Debt","authors":"Leo J. de Haan, R. Vermeulen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3307455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3307455","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents how sovereign debt ratings shape euro area cross-border holdings of euro area sovereign debt, using granular sectoral security holdings statistics for the period 2009Q4 until 2016Q1. Credit risk is the main risk for bond investors when investing in bonds that are issued in the same currency as the currency of the investor's home country. Sovereign debt ratings provided by rating agencies give investors key information on the creditworthiness of governments. The results in this paper show that investors respond differently to credit ratings. In particular, we find that investors from core euro area countries respond more to credit ratings than investors from peripheral euro area countries. The results show that banks, insurance companies, pension funds and investment funds in core countries all significantly increase their bond holdings when credit ratings improve. In peripheral countries we document only a positive effect for pension funds and find no relationship between ratings and bond holdings for the other investor sectors. Finally, we find non-linearities in the relationship between bond holdings and credit ratings.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124092260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fiscal Compact and Debt Consolidation Dynamics","authors":"Luca Brugnolini, L. Corrado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3192941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3192941","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the macroeconomic effects of a debt consolidation policy in the Euro Area mimicking the Fiscal Compact Rule (FCR). The rule requires the signatory states to target a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%. Within the context of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models (DSGE), we augment a fully micro-founded New-Keynesian model with a parametric linear debt consolidation rule, and we analyse the effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. To fully understand its implications on the economy, we study different debt consolidation scenarios, allowing the excess debt to be re-absorbed with different timings. We show that including a debt consolidation rule can exacerbate the effects of the shocks in the economy by imposing a constraint on the public debt process. Secondly, we note that the effect of loosening or tightening the rule in response to a shock is heterogeneous. Shocks hitting nominal variables (monetary policy shock) are not particularly sensitive. On the contrary, we prove that the same change has a more pronounced effect in case of shock hitting real variables (productivity and public spending shocks). Finally, we show that the macroeconomic framework worsens as a function of the rigidity of the debt consolidation rule. As a limiting case, we show that the effects on output, employment, real wages, inflation, and interest rates are sizable.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121711853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Briefing Paper About 2018 Budget for Changes to Premium Bonds and Introduction of the Digital Services Tax (DST)","authors":"Chenoy Ceil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520407","url":null,"abstract":"The UK government has taken steps to reduce the fiscal deficit and the austerity measures put in place since 2010 has paid off. However, the annual GDP growth rates of 1% to 1.5% is hardly something to cheer about. Under the new budget, premium bonds have undergone several changes to increase the scope of its applicability. Premium bonds have been introduced with provisions to be bought for children who are not your own children.","PeriodicalId":417203,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Budget","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132241498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}