Economic Journal of Emerging Markets最新文献_第5页

The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations 财政整顿对经济增长的潜在影响

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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4

H. Kuncoro

{"title":"The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations","authors":"H. Kuncoro","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not. Methods - This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models. Findings - The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of. Implication - The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth. Originality - This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75124337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Export diversification and economic growth: A threshold regression approach for emerging markets and developing countries 出口多样化与经济增长:新兴市场和发展中国家的阈值回归方法

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8

P. Trinh, Hoang Thi Thuy

{"title":"Export diversification and economic growth: A threshold regression approach for emerging markets and developing countries","authors":"P. Trinh, Hoang Thi Thuy","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth in 44 emerging markets and developing countries. Methods - The threshold regression methodology is employed to analyze data for the period between 1995 and 2015. Export diversifications in terms of both geography and product are measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman market concentration index and overall Theil index, respectively. Findings - The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Above the threshold, diversified export markets and products boost economic growth. Below the threshold, the positive relationship between diversification in both markets and products and growth is insignificant. Implications - The research implies that export diversification strategy in emerging markets and developing countries should be considered carefully when the level of export diversification is higher than the threshold, which usually occurs in the later stage of diversification. Originality - The study investigates nonlinearity in terms of degrees of diversification instead of degrees of development. With this approach, the threshold is identified to show how economic growth is affected under different regimes.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82995566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Education, skills and labour market outcome in Indonesia: An instrumental variable approach 印度尼西亚的教育、技能和劳动力市场结果:工具变量方法

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6

T. Mulyaningsih, Dhian Adhitya, Amelia Choya Tia Rosalia

{"title":"Education, skills and labour market outcome in Indonesia: An instrumental variable approach","authors":"T. Mulyaningsih, Dhian Adhitya, Amelia Choya Tia Rosalia","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study examines the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Importantly, this study captures the importance of observing cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills associated with personality traits in determining earnings. Methods - A revised Mincer Model serves as a theoretical framework to explain the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Using the Indonesian labour data from the 5 th wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), the 2-Stage Least Squares is employed to measure the effects of schooling, cognitive and non-cognitive skills on earnings. Findings - The results show that schooling and skills, both cognitive and personality traits determine the labour market outcomes. In addition, the relationship between education and earning is nonlinear, suggesting that the returns on education varied across education levels. Implication - The policy should aim to enhance human capital by improving knowledge, cognitive and non-cognitive capacities to assist students in achieving their full potentials. Originality - This study contributes to the literature by measuring the effects of unobservable cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills on earnings in developing countries absent in the previous studies. This study also utilizes the instrumental variable approach of 2-Stage Least Squares to deal with omitted variable bias and the endogeneity problem in the basic Mincer model.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77034494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth: Evidence from emerging markets 实际汇率失调对经济增长的影响:来自新兴市场的证据

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art1

A. Mamun, E. E. Akça, H. Bal, N. Hoque

{"title":"The effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth: Evidence from emerging markets","authors":"A. Mamun, E. E. Akça, H. Bal, N. Hoque","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art1","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This study’s main purpose is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth performance for 21 emerging markets from 1980 through 2016. Methods – The study individually measures the real exchange rate misalignment series for 21 emerging markets by using the single-equation approach and then estimates the effect of real exchange rate misalignment, undervaluation, and overvaluation on economic growth performance through dynamic panel system generalized method of moments approach. Findings – The study finds that the real exchange rate of emerging markets is significantly misaligned. The study also argues that any deviation of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value impairs economic growth. The view that overvaluation erodes growth is customarily accepted, while a real undervaluation is found to be a growth deteriorating fact. Implication - From the policy perspective, policymakers should be cautious enough in setting exchange rate policies to check its sustained misalignments over time so that it can enrich the ability of concerned authorities to attain the growth target by using it as a policy instrument. Originality – The study is in response to the need felt for a common analytical framework for examining misalignment in the real exchange rate to make a more inclusive decision relating to its effects on the growth performance of emerging markets.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78525114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

The spillover of shadow interest rate to the excess returns in emerging markets 影子利率对新兴市场超额回报的溢出效应

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art3

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Mehmet Tevfik Izgi

{"title":"The spillover of shadow interest rate to the excess returns in emerging markets","authors":"Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Mehmet Tevfik Izgi","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art3","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study focuses on the monetary policy transmission of the U.S. on the excess returns in emerging markets by estimating the impacts of changes in the shadow interest rate in the U.S. on the Barclays Benchmark EM FX Trend Excess Return Index (FXERI) and the Barclays Cross Asset Trend Index – EM FX ER (CRASERI). Methods - To account for the spillover effects of the macroeconomic and financial variables, this study employs a bivariate VARMA–AGARCH approach. This study employs 206 daily observations, from February 22, 2002, to July 5, 2019 sourced from The Barclays database and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Findings - This study finds that the shocks in shadow interest rates will decrease the Barclays Benchmark EM FX Trend Excess Return Index (FXERI) and the Barclays Cross Asset Trend Index – EM FX ER (CRASERI) in the short term. The results of VARMA–BEKK–AGARCH model show that changes/shocks in shadow interest rates will reduce the excess returns in the financial markets of emerging countries in the long term. Implication - The study reveals that a high-interest rate policy could be used as a tool by the FED to prevent excessive returns on emerging countries' financial markets Originality - This study contributes to the existing literature by addressing the issue of whether the monetary policy stance of the U.S. after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) can be recognized as the primary source of the currency excess returns and multiple-asset class excess returns for emerging countries.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83433870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lingering effects of foreign resource dependency in Pakistan: Assessing gains from domestic resources 巴基斯坦对外国资源依赖的持续影响:评估国内资源的收益

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art7

Mubbasher Munir, M. Meo, K. Younas, Noman Arshed, Asma Khalid Jamil

引用次数: 2

Does economic freedom affect entrepreneurship? Insights from Africa 经济自由会影响企业家精神吗?来自非洲的见解

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art5

F. Ajide

{"title":"Does economic freedom affect entrepreneurship? Insights from Africa","authors":"F. Ajide","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art5","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - Literature suggests that entrepreneurship can serve as a veritable tool for providing decent employment and improving economic prosperity. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the impact of economic freedom on entrepreneurship in Africa. Design/methodology/approach - The study employs data of 18 African countries covering a period of 2007-2018. The analysis is based on the following techniques: Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), generalized method of moments, Hausman–Taylor IV estimator and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. Findings - Finding based on Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) technique reveals that economic freedom and its dimensions improve the level of entrepreneurship in Africa. This finding is robust to other alternative estimation techniques. Secured property right, relaxed tax burden , monetary freedom, trade freedom, freedom from corruption, investment freedom, financial freedom, business freedom and labor freedom have positive impact on African entrepreneurship. Practical implications - The study, hence, suggests that policy should be implemented to maximize the level of economic and fundamental freedom of citizens to encourage indigenous entrepreneurs in Africa. Quality of infrastructure should be improved as well as simplification of firms’ registration procedures. African government also needs to build effective and efficient institutional framework to maintain government integrity in Africa. Originality/value - The position of African countries in the nexus between economic freedom and entrepreneurship is rarely discussed in the literature. Hence, this study contributes in this respect and showcases how economic freedom influence the decision to engage in entrepreneurial venture in African perspectives","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88844320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Exchange rates and oil price under uncertainty and regime switching: A Markov-switching VAR approach 不确定性和制度转换下的汇率与油价:马尔可夫转换VAR方法

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art9

Nagmi Aimer, Abdulmula Lusta

{"title":"Exchange rates and oil price under uncertainty and regime switching: A Markov-switching VAR approach","authors":"Nagmi Aimer, Abdulmula Lusta","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art9","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This paper analyses the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty index and oil price changes on the dollar exchange rate over a monthly period from January 2006 to August 2020. Methods - This paper uses the Markov-switching Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model. Findings - The results show that the sharp decline regime in the exchange rate is the most stable. In addition, the impact of the oil price on the exchange rate of the concerned currencies is stronger than the effect of EPU on the exchange rate of these currencies. We also find that most of the effects of oil prices were negative, while positive for the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen exchange rate. Implications - Addressing this investigation contributes to many of the areas covered in recent macroeconomic and finance research. Moreover, such research can help predict changes in currency and oil prices better and create profitable investment and hedging strategies for currencies and oil. Originality - We consider the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price changes on the relationships between those markets and study these relationships under different market conditions.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89848661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Bank lending in an emerging economy: How does central bank reserve accumulation matter? 新兴经济体的银行贷款:央行储备积累有何影响?

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART5

V. Dang

{"title":"Bank lending in an emerging economy: How does central bank reserve accumulation matter?","authors":"V. Dang","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART5","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - The paper examines the impacts of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves on bank lending, captured by the dimensions of quantity (loan growth) and quality (credit risk). Methods - This research analysis is based on bank-year observations in Vietnam during 2007–2019 and employs the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments in dynamic panels. Findings - This study finds that banks tend to increase their loan growth rate in response to reserves accumulation. Banks also expand loans and cash items on their asset structure while subsequently slashing total security investments and disaggregate government bond holdings. Our results also indicate that the central bank reserves accumulation is associated with less credit risk and more financial stability of the banking system. Implication - This paper supports the notion that reserve accumulation could be a complementary monetary policy tool for lending navigation and economic growth. Besides, reserve interventions may be used for financial stability, given the finding that it is found to curtail bank credit risk and financial instability. Originality - This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on critical aspects of bank lending, including quantity and quality, to paint a bigger picture of the benefits and costs of reserve accumulation and decompose bank asset portfolios into disaggregate components, thereby providing more insight into bank responses.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75133656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Commercial banks regulation and intermediation function in an emerging market 商业银行在新兴市场中的监管和中介作用

IF 0.5

Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART7

A. Ananwude

{"title":"Commercial banks regulation and intermediation function in an emerging market","authors":"A. Ananwude","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL13.ISS1.ART7","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ─ This paper investigates the effect of commercial bank regulations, namely the price, product, and geographic regulations, on the intermediation function of commercial banks in Nigeria. Methods ─ Using secondary data from 1986 to 2017 from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank, this study employs the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality framework. Findings ─ This paper provides evidence of a long-run relationship between commercial bank regulation and intermediation function represented by private sector credit to RGDP (regional gross domestic product). It also finds that commercial banks' regulation index through price, product, and geographic regulation has a positive relationship with intermediation function. Furthermore, the long-run relationship between commercial bank regulation and intermediation function described by private sector credit to RGDP is affirmed. Implication ─ The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needs to relax the product regulation to allow commercial banks to engage in various conventionally non-banking activities. Originality ─ The paper contributes to the literature by ascertaining the commercial banks' intermediation function to Nigeria's economic growth and development.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73229042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0