{"title":"The Timing and Value of Forecast and Recommendation Revisions: Do Analysts Receive Early Peek at Good News?","authors":"Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Z. Ivkovich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.359320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.359320","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the information content of analysts' one-quarter ahead earnings forecast revisions and recommendation revisions at various points in time relative to earnings announcement dates. We conduct three sets of tests to evaluate the information content of revisions. Across all tests, we find that the revisions are least informative in the week after earnings announcements and that the information content of revisions generally increases over event time. We find a sharp increase in the information content of upward forecast revisions and recommendations upgrades, but we do not find a similar increase for downward revisions and recommendation downgrades.","PeriodicalId":414252,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2004 San Diego Meetings (Archive)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131464373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Fuel Hedging Make Economic Sense? The Case of the Us Airline Industry","authors":"D. Carter, D. A. Rogers, B. Simkins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.325402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.325402","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the fuel hedging behavior of firms in the US airline industry during 1994-2000 to examine whether such hedging is a source of value for these companies. The investment climate in the airline industry conforms well to the theoretic framework of Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein (1993). Specifically, airline industry investment opportunities correlate positively with jet fuel costs, while higher fuel costs are consistent with lower cash flow. Given that jet fuel costs are hedgeable, airlines with a desire for expansion may find value in hedging future purchases of jet fuel. The results show that jet fuel hedging is positively related to airline firm value. The coefficients on hedging indicator variables in regression analysis suggest that the hedging premium constitutes approximately a 12-16% increase in firm value. We find that the positive relation between hedging and value increases in capital investment. This result is consistent with the assertion that the principal benefit of jet fuel hedging by airlines comes from reduction of underinvestment costs.","PeriodicalId":414252,"journal":{"name":"AFA 2004 San Diego Meetings (Archive)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126139245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}