Staff Climate Notes最新文献

{"title":"Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change","authors":"M. Bellon, Zamid Aligishiev, E. Massetti","doi":"10.5089/9798400201608.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400201608.066","url":null,"abstract":"DISCLAIMER: The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management. This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. The first Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022a, henceforth Note 1) examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. It argues that climate change adaptation should be part of a holistic, sustainable, and equitable development strategy. To maximize the impact of scarce resources, governments need to prioritize among all development programs, including but not limited to adaptation. To this end, they can use cost-benefit analysis while ensuring that the decision-making process reflects society’s preferences about equity and uncertainty. This second Note discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. A third Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022b, henceforth Note 3) considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies. It argues that adaptation solutions can be guided by an extension of the IMF’s (2019b) three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather, for all countries. It suggests that public financial management (PFM) institutions can support an efficient implementation of adaptation solutions by factoring climate risks and adaptation plans into budgets and macro-frameworks, and in the management of public investment, assets, and liabilities. A review suggests adaptation needs while being challenged by limited fiscal space, limited capacity, or both, calling for additional support from the international community. To help guide national fiscal policies, countries could integrate climate risks and the cost of adaptation into their macro-fiscal frameworks. Shock scenarios are useful to reflect short-term impacts of climate disasters, while the long-term analysis of risks and uncertainties surrounding climate change requires scenarios that cover impacts from changes in both average and extreme events, as well as adaptation policies. Desmet and others show that relocation, in the form of migration and the rise of new productive clusters away from exposed coasts, is an effective adaptation strategy and can reduce GDP losses by a factor of 10. For Suriname, their model predicts annual costs below 0.3 percent of GDP and migration outflows that would reduce population by 2.4 percent by 220","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115006086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy","authors":"M. Bellon, E. Massetti","doi":"10.5089/9798400201950.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400201950.066","url":null,"abstract":"DISCLAIMER: The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management. This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. A first Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 1) examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. It argues that climate change adaptation should be part of a holistic, sustainable, and equitable development strategy. To maximize the impact of scarce resources, governments need to prioritize among all development programs, including but not limited to adaptation. To this end, they can use cost-benefit analysis while ensuring that the decision-making process reflects society’s preferences about equity and uncertainty. A second Note (Aligishiev, Bellon, and Massetti. 2022, henceforth Note 2) discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. It reviews evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation at reducing climate change damages, on residual risks, and on adaptation investment needs, and suggests ways to integrate climate risks and adaptation costs into national macro-fiscal frameworks with the goal of guiding fiscal policy. It stresses that lower-income vulnerable countries, which have typically not contributed much to climate change, face exacerbated challenges that warrant increased international support. This third Note considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies. into policy? foundations","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128121730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Principles for Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into Fiscal Policy","authors":"M. Bellon, E. Massetti","doi":"10.5089/9781513592374.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513592374.066","url":null,"abstract":"This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. This first Note examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. A second Note (Aligishiev, Bellon, and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 2) discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. It reviews evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation at reducing climate change damages, on residual risks, and on adaptation investment needs, and suggests ways to integrate climate risks and adaptation costs into national macro-fiscal frameworks. It stresses that lower-income vulnerable countries, which have typically not contributed much to climate change, face exacerbated challenges that warrant increased international support. A third Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 3) considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies. It argues that, for all countries, adaptation solutions can be guided by an extension of the IMF (2019a) three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather. It suggests that governments can support an efficient implementation of adaptation solutions by factoring climate risks and adaptation plans into budgets, macro-frameworks, and, in the management of public investment, assets and liabilities. Policymakers challenge of facilitating this transition. This Note argues that adaptation to climate change should be part of a holistic development strategy involving both private and public sector responses. Governments can prioritize public investment in adaptation programs with positive externalities, address imperfections and that private inefficient, and mobilize the be and complemented","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127812250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals","authors":"I. Parry, K. Zhunussova","doi":"10.5089/9781557754400.066.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781557754400.066.A001","url":null,"abstract":"DISCLAIMER: The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The IMF Staff Climate Notes provide analysis related to the impact of climate change on macroeconomic and financial stability, including on mitigation, adaptation, and transition. The views expressed in IMF Staff Climate Notes are those of the author(s), although they do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, or its Executive Board, or its management. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO 2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2 o C. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129949494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strengthening the Climate Information Architecture","authors":"C. Ferreira, Felix Suntheim","doi":"10.5089/9781513590790.066.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513590790.066.A001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"92 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132773093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon Pricing: What Role for Border Carbon Adjustments?","authors":"J. Roaf, Peter Dohlman, Cory Hillier, Christophe Waerzeggers, F. Misch, K. Kwak, M. Kaufman, I. Parry","doi":"10.5089/9781513594545.066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513594545.066","url":null,"abstract":"management. to the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, in November 2021. Pressure for BCAs will likely intensify as some countries and regions move ahead aggressively with carbon pricing while others do not. Abstract This Climate Note discusses the rationale, design, and impacts of border carbon adjustments (BCAs), charges on embodied carbon in imports potentially matched by rebates for embodied carbon in exports. Large disparities in carbon pricing between countries is raising concerns about competitiveness and emissions leakage, and BCAs are a potentially effective instrument for addressing such concerns. Design details are critical, however. For example, limiting coverage of the BCA to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries facilitates administration, and initially benchmarking BCAs on domestic emissions intensities would help ease the transition for emissions-intensive trading partners. It is also important to consider how to apply BCAs across countries with different approaches to emissions mitigation. BCAs are challenging because they pose legal risks and may be at odds with the differentiated responsibilities of developing countries. Furthermore, BCAs provide only modest incentives for other large emitting countries to scale carbon pricing—an international carbon price floor would be far more effective in this regard. that it explore carbon border taxes as part of its trade policy agenda. Prior to the election, the Biden campaign signaled support for imposing a BCA on imports from countries that are failing to meet their climate and environmental obligations.","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132464459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-Sensitive Management of Public Finances—\"Green PFM”","authors":"Ozlem Aydin Sakrak, B. Battersby","doi":"10.5089/9781513583044.066.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583044.066.A001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122253153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Proposal for an International Carbon Price Floor Among Large Emitters","authors":"I. Parry","doi":"10.5089/9781513583204.066.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583204.066.A001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412934,"journal":{"name":"Staff Climate Notes","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121121902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}