ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Estimating Spillover Effects in the English Housing Market: A Heterogeneous Spatial Autoregressive Panel Approach","authors":"Beulah Chelva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2971255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2971255","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates a spatio-temporal model of house price changes in England, allowing for heterogeneity in spatial effects between districts and the separation of the spatial dimension from the impact of common factors. We model house price growth from January 1995 to August 2016 across 325 local authority districts. \u0000The renewed interest in the analysis of cross-sectional dependence has led to a range of novel techniques in modelling cross-dependent systems. Despite the considerable spatial literature concerning house prices, studies often fail to assess the level of cross-sectional dependency. Models incorrectly specified for spatial connections where factor dependence persists can engender spurious outcomes pertaining to the strength and prevalence of cross-sectional dependence. We endeavour to fill this gap in the literature by applying the novel methods developed by Aquaro et al. (2015) and Bailey et al. (2016) to the English housing market. In reference to the ripple effect hypothesis, our results indicate a more nuanced spatial impact than the theory implies, where areas with higher levels of economic activity find stronger spillover effects that are not unique to London but also districts surrounding cities such as Manchester and Nottingham. Furthermore, the variation in spatial dependence across districts demonstrate how delineating the housing market by regions fails to sufficiently allow for spatial heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"9 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126307476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real Estate Price Dynamics and the Value of Flexibility","authors":"D. Geltner, R. de Neufville","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2998832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998832","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model of real estate asset price dynamics based on empirical evidence, economic theory, and common sense. We note important differences between real estate versus stock market price dynamics. We then use this model to simulate the investment performance of archetypical property investments, in stabilized income-producing property, and in multi-asset development projects. We quantitatively explore the effects of uncertainty on investment performance, for example, the positive skew in the valuation distribution and the positive bias in the pro-forma return compared with the expected return due to Jensen’s Inequality. We then focus on the value added by flexibility, including various types of real options in development projects. We consider the value of resale timing flexibility in stabilized property investment, and the value of production delay and product switching options in the development project. We find that with typical real estate price dynamics, flexibility adds considerable value, and greatly improves the expected return. In stabilized property investment, resale timing flexibility can add 25% to the private valuation of the property. In multi-asset development, we find that timing options are redundant within themselves, but additive with product type options. Delay options provide significant downside protection, and combined with product switching can add over one-third to the value of the project as measured by its implied bid-price for the land.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131696158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОЙ АРХИТЕКТУРЫ СИСТЕМЫ ПУБЛИЧНОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМ РАЗВИТИЕМ ТЕРРИТОРИИ (Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Strategic Architecture of the Public Management System of the Social-Economic Development of the Territory)","authors":"A. Balani, O. Glushakova, Y. Vaysberg, N. V. Fadeikina, V. Mikhailov, V. Trifonov","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2992985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2992985","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: На основе анализа теоретико-методологических положений концепции стратегического менеджмента и теории организации обосновываются подходы к трансформации архитектоники в стратегическую архитектуру системы публичного управления социально-экономическим развитием территории. Утверждается, что в условиях нарастания скорости изменений факторов внутренней и внешней среды устойчивое социально-экономическое развитие территории возможно обеспечить за счет развития в структуре человеческого капитала всех субъектов публичного управления профессиональных компетенций, ориентированных на обеспечение конкурентных преимуществ территории в будущем. Обосновываются критерии эффективности стратегической архитектуры системы публичного управления социально-экономическим развитием территории. Предлагается методика оценки уровня соответствия действующей архитектоники системы публичного управления стратегической архитектуре. Апробация разработанной методики в рамках обоснованной системы показателей проводится на примере регионов Сибирского федерального округа Российской Федерации. \u0000English Abstract: Based on the analysis of the theoretical and methodological provisions of the concept of strategic management and the theory of organization, the approaches to the transformation of architectonics into the strategic architecture of the public administration system of the socio-economic development of the territory are justified. It is asserted that in the conditions of increasing speed of changes in the factors of the internal and external environment, it is possible to ensure the sustainable social and economic development of the territory by developing in the structure of human capital all subjects of public administration of professional competencies aimed at ensuring the competitive advantages of the territory in the future. The criteria for the effectiveness of the strategic architecture of the public administration system for social and economic development of the territory are substantiated. The methodology for assessing the level of compliance of the current architectonics of the public administration system to the strategic architecture is proposed. Approbation of the developed methodology within the framework of a justified system of indicators is carried out on the example of the regions of the Siberian Federal District of the Russian Federation.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121612316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Selection and Quantile Treatment Effects on the Economic Returns of Green Buildings","authors":"Wen-Chi Liao, Daxuan Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2976364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2976364","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper adds a fresh perspective on the economic returns of green buildings using Singapore housing data. It estimates both the conditional and unconditional quantile treatment effects, by applying a recent econometric theory that explicitly recognizes and addresses the fundamental difference between the two types of quantile effects. The theory exploits selection on observables, which is widely accepted and commonly handled through one of two propensity score methods in the green building literature. The research finds that inverse probability weighting outperforms the other and adopts it to estimate the quantile effects, after evaluations including a comparison between the conditional and unconditional mean effects. Green buildings' premium is significant but varies notably across housing price quantiles. The treatment effect estimates for the conditional price distribution exhibit a hump shape, but the estimates for the marginal distribution display an upward trend. The conditional and unconditional quantile treatment effects both provide useful information for research, policy, and practice. The results indicate that the incentive for going green and the need for government intervention are both non-uniform.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123345033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generating a Located Synthetic Population of Individuals, Households, and Dwellings","authors":"J. Antoni, Gilles Vuidel, O. Klein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2972615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2972615","url":null,"abstract":"Some of the new approaches in urban modeling, such as multi-agent systems (MAS) or activity-based models (ABM), require inputs in the form of disaggregated individual data. But for privacy protection reasons, such data is seldom available at this level. One way to get around this obstacle is to generate a synthetic population. This paper presents a method for generating a population from fully aggregated socio-demographic and geographic data. Based on French examples, this method can be reproduced anywhere in the country providing a relevant linkage between the characteristics of agents and those of urban spaces. The proposed method is subdivided into two steps. First, a population of agents belonging to households, as well as of households ascribed to housing units, is generated from the socio-demographic data. Second, this population is located by assignment to the buildings generated from the geographic data. Testing and validating the method on three French cities (Besancon, Strasbourg and Lille) generates useful results but also some difficulties, particularly for certain population categories. Ultimately, we obtain a realistic three-dimensional database of the study area where agents and spaces are represented and realistic individual information can be mapped and used to model the behavior of agents through MASs or ABMs.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126928141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do High Speed Railways Lead to Urban Economic Growth in China?: A Panel Data Study of China's Cities","authors":"Jack Strauss, Hongchang Li, Shenglei Hu, Lihong Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2892833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2892833","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of high-speed railroads (HSR) on city-level economic activity using a new dataset for approximately 200 cities in China from 2007-2014. We apply panel Granger causality methods to assess whether increases in a city’s accessibility increases GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and wage growth. Or does causality run the opposite way – does rising economic growth boost accessibility? Results document that increases in accessibility lead to significant and relatively large increases in GDP growth on the city-level; further, the benefits substantially out-weigh HSR’s fixed costs, depreciation and subsidies. Out-of-sample methods document the importance of increases in HSR in forecasting GDP growth. Monte Carlo simulations document the usefulness of OLS and out-of-sample tests in assessing panel Granger Causality tests.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129974010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Проблемы Обеспечения Оптимального Развития Региональной Экономики (Problems of Optimum Development of Regional Economy)","authors":"Валентина Жильцова","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2889236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2889236","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: В статье рассматриваются основные направления оптимизации регионального развития на основе системного и SWOT- анализа. Значительная роль при этом принадлежит эколого-экономическому управлению в регионе. Выполнен анализ слабых и сильных сторон подсистем региональной экономики: экологической, экономической, социальной, культурно-образовательной.English Abstract: The article examines the main directions of optimization of regional development on the basis of the system and SWOT- analysis. A significant role in this belongs to the ecological and economic management in the region. The analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the subsystems of the regional economy: the environmental, economic, social, cultural and educational.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114946264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physical Capital Mobility, the Educational and Quality Aspects of Creative Capital, and Output Production","authors":"Alden Porter, A. Batabyal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2863338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2863338","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze two theoretical models of the connections between physical capital mobility, education in and the quality of creative capital, and the production of output in a region that is creative in the sense of Richard Florida. Our first model focuses on a single region which produces a knowledge good with perfectly mobile physical capital. We trace through the effect that education has in converting raw creative capital into acquired creative capital and then study how physical capital mobility affects the impact of the change in education on the output of the knowledge good. Our second model is similar to the first one but the focus now is on two creative regions and on the quality of creative capital. We show how to decompose the difference in the logarithm of the output of the knowledge good per raw creative capital unit between the two regions into the contributions of education and all other factors.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"303 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123017188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Новая Экономическая География: Агломерация и Пространственная Концентрация (New Economic Geography: Agglomeration and Spatial Concentration)","authors":"Kristina Bavina","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2848775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2848775","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: Несмотря на высокую степень интереса к экономической географии и теории пространственного размещения большинство существующих моделей новой экономической географии не так глубоко изучены. Поэтому в статье рассматривается появление и развитие моделей новой экономической географии, а также представлены общие механизмы и особенности моделей НЭГ. Также выявлена природа агломераций и причины объединения в кластеры. Особенно внимание уделено различиям между урбанизацией и локализацией, а также MAR, Jacobian и Porter эффектами.English Abstract: Despite high degree of interest in economic geography and the theory of spatial placement the majority of the existing models of new economic geography are not so deeply studied. Therefore in article emergence and development of models of new economic geography is considered, and also the general mechanisms and features of the NEG models are presented. The nature of agglomerations and the reason of association in clusters is also revealed. Especially the attention is paid to distinctions between an urbanization and localization, and also MAR, Jacobian and Porter externalities.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121251565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Interaction in Local Expenditures Among Italian Municipalities: Evidence from Italy 2001-2011","authors":"Massimiliano Ferraresi, Giuseppe Migali, Francesca Nordi, Leonzio Rizzo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2841313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2841313","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the existence of spatial interaction in spending decisions among Italian municipalities. We estimate a spatial autoregressive dynamic panel data model, using information on 5,564 Italian municipalities over the period 2001-2011, exploiting their border contiguity as a measure of spatial neighborhood. We find a positive effect of neighboring expenditures on total, capital and current expenditures of a given municipality. We do not find any evidence of yardstick competition when we take account of political effects, while we find a negative relationship between spatial interaction and the size of the municipality for current expenditure. Thus, we conclude that spillover effects drive the strategic interaction.","PeriodicalId":410291,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127031727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}