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Structural time series modelling of the number of fatalities in Poland in relation to economic factors 波兰死亡人数与经济因素的结构时间序列模型
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH4
Ruth Bergel-Hayat, J. Żukowska
{"title":"Structural time series modelling of the number of fatalities in Poland in relation to economic factors","authors":"Ruth Bergel-Hayat, J. Żukowska","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH4","url":null,"abstract":"Comparing with other European countries Poland’s traffic fatality risk rates still remain on very high levels. These last years the numbers of fatalities were around 3500 and the mortality rate reached about 9 killed per 100,000 population, which places Poland in a very bad position in Europe. This situation shows a strong need of intensified systemic and preventive work, which also prevails in the field of road safety analysis. The objective of this paper is to describe models that have been developed for analysing the short term changes in the aggregate number of fatalities in Poland, measured on a monthly basis between 1998 and 2012. The models account for the influence of economic conditions on the level of road mortality.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124915770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Development of safety performance functions for two-lane rural first class main roads in Hungary 匈牙利农村一级双车道主干道安全性能功能的开发
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH6
A. Borsos, J. Ivan, G. Orosz
{"title":"Development of safety performance functions for two-lane rural first class main roads in Hungary","authors":"A. Borsos, J. Ivan, G. Orosz","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH6","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes a modeling effort to define accident prediction models for first-class main roads outside built-up areas in Hungary using variables that are available and believed to exert an influence on safety performance. The first part of the paper describes data collection and the segmentation technique. Six years of accident data are gathered for segments only; intersections with a 200m radius are taken out in order to avoid having intersection related crashes in the data. Altogether 1357 homogenous sections are formulated based on AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic), road width, posted speed, horizontal curve and shoulder width. Models are proposed using the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) approach assuming a negative binomial error structure. It is concluded that AADT, roadway width, horizontal curve and segment length significantly influence accident frequency. Estimated model parameters are explained by putting them into international context and it is concluded that the results are in accordance with previous research findings.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134212424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
For the vision "zero accident at intersections": a challenge between road safety and capacity “十字路口零事故”愿景:道路安全与通行能力之间的挑战
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH14
J. E. Bakaba, Jörg Ortlepp
{"title":"For the vision \"zero accident at intersections\": a challenge between road safety and capacity","authors":"J. E. Bakaba, Jörg Ortlepp","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH14","url":null,"abstract":"Different types of intersection were simulated with different traffic control variants. Simulation results of a wide range of types of intersection and traffic signal phases showed that an additional protected green phase for traffic turning left generally resulted in no relevant restrictions to the capacity of the intersection. In the case of large intersections with a high volume of traffic, a protected signal for traffic turning left increases safety for traffic turning left and oncoming vehicles. In the case of large intersections with a medium volume of traffic and small intersections with a high volume of traffic, lprotectedr systems for traffic turning left are the most efficient solution both in terms of traffic flow and road safety. Standardising these types of regulation at traffic light controlled intersections helps to reduce conflicts between turning left vehicles and pedestrians and cyclists too. The number and the severity of accidents involving pedestrians and cyclists at such intersections can be reduced significantly.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130651649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparison of car drivers and motorcyclists' drink-driving in 19 countries, results from the SARTRE 4 survey. 来自SARTRE调查的19个国家的汽车司机和摩托车手酒后驾驶的比较。
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH8
J. Cestac, Cécile Barbier, G. Sardi, Richard Freeman, Sami Kraïem, J. Assailly
{"title":"Comparison of car drivers and motorcyclists' drink-driving in 19 countries, results from the SARTRE 4 survey.","authors":"J. Cestac, Cécile Barbier, G. Sardi, Richard Freeman, Sami Kraïem, J. Assailly","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH8","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies showed that motorcyclists drink and drive as often as car drivers but with lower BAC. Moreover, when they know that they may drink heavily, motorcyclists typically leave their motorcycle and use their car. They may be trying to compensate for the greater vulnerability of their habitual transport mode by more cautious behaviour. 12507 car drivers and 4483 powered two-wheelers from 19 countries were asked about their attitudes, and behaviours related to driving while impaired. The results showed large differences between countries in alcohol consumption and reported drink driving. More specifically, the drivers from Northern Europe reported far less drink driving than Southern drivers. In most countries motorcyclists drink and drive almost as often as car drivers do. The comparison of motorcyclists and car drivers showed similar patterns of drink driving processes.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125465725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Overview of Freight Train Derailments in the EU: Causes, Impacts, Prevention and Mitigation Measures 欧盟货运列车脱轨概况:原因、影响、预防和缓解措施
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH20
C. Ulianov, F. Defossez, G. V. Franklin, M. Robinson
{"title":"Overview of Freight Train Derailments in the EU: Causes, Impacts, Prevention and Mitigation Measures","authors":"C. Ulianov, F. Defossez, G. V. Franklin, M. Robinson","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH20","url":null,"abstract":"The European Railway Agency (ERA) has estimated that over 500 freight train derailments are happening every year on open line, costing the EU27 Member States more than 200 million Euros per year. Given the projected freight market growth in Europe, it is essential to ensure the reduction of the number of freight train derailments. The paper summarises the most relevant results achieved within the first part of the European FP7 funded project D-RAIL, which aims to make significant improvements in the detection and prevention of derailments, and the mitigation of their subsequent effects. It presents a comprehensive overview of recent mainline freight train derailments in Europe (with a major focus on their causes and impacts), and an extensive investigation on supervision and monitoring systems and their efficiency. This work also provides conclusions and recommendations to the safety authorities and European key organisations, responsible for accident reporting methodologies and impact analysis.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114244221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Safety of urban cycling: a study on perceived and actual dangers 城市骑行安全:感知危险与实际危险研究
Traffic safety Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/9781119307853.CH10
A. Graser, M. Aleksa, Markus Straub, P. Saleh, Stephan Wittmann, G. Lenz
{"title":"Safety of urban cycling: a study on perceived and actual dangers","authors":"A. Graser, M. Aleksa, Markus Straub, P. Saleh, Stephan Wittmann, G. Lenz","doi":"10.1002/9781119307853.CH10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119307853.CH10","url":null,"abstract":"This work combines data from studies on threat perception by cyclists with data of actual traffic accidents involving cyclists: it presents survey results on perceived dangers of urban cycling based on interviews with cyclists and polls conducted in the city of Vienna (Austria) over the last two years. These results are contrasted with an analysis and evaluation of records of injury accidents over the last 10 years. While the number of bicycle accidents per year has remained stable, the data shows increases of up to 225% for certain accident characteristics. Additionally, the study also reveals potential extensions to the accident database which would enable more detailed analyses of certain aspects such as differences in cyclist safety on different types of bicycle routes.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131091741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
NOT FOR KIDS ONLY 不只是儿童
Traffic safety Pub Date : 1999-05-01 DOI: 10.1176/pn.37.4.0041a
C. Kedjidjian
{"title":"NOT FOR KIDS ONLY","authors":"C. Kedjidjian","doi":"10.1176/pn.37.4.0041a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1176/pn.37.4.0041a","url":null,"abstract":"Project Northland, an innovative program designed to combat adolescent alcohol use, brought together children and adults in more than 20 communities in Minnesota. In the first phase, 2,400 students in sixth to eighth grade took part in classroom education, parental involvement, peer leadership programs, and community task-force activities. Researchers placed half of the students into an intervention group, which received more intense education on alcohol prevention. The other half were part of the control group. By the end of eighth grade, students in the intervention group drank significantly less than students in the control group. As the childrten moved into high school, Project Northland continued its push to reduce alcohol use and began to focus on educating participants about the dangers of drinking and driving. Students studied real-life cases of adolescents who were involved in drunk-driving crashes and heard taped interviews of anguished parents who lost their children to drunk driving. In an eleventh grade mock trial, students acted as prosecutors and jury members against a University of Minnesota law student defending a drunk driver. The positive results of Project Northland included an increased student, parental, and community awareness that the number-one killer of teens is alcohol-related car crashes. Communication between parents and children about the consequences of drinking increased. Peer pressure to drink decreased, and students perceived a greater likelihood of disciplinary action after drinking and driving.","PeriodicalId":408421,"journal":{"name":"Traffic safety","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114319026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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