Structural time series modelling of the number of fatalities in Poland in relation to economic factors

Comparing with other European countries Poland’s traffic fatality risk rates still remain on very high levels. These last years the numbers of fatalities were around 3500 and the mortality rate reached about 9 killed per 100,000 population, which places Poland in a very bad position in Europe. This situation shows a strong need of intensified systemic and preventive work, which also prevails in the field of road safety analysis. The objective of this paper is to describe models that have been developed for analysing the short term changes in the aggregate number of fatalities in Poland, measured on a monthly basis between 1998 and 2012. The models account for the influence of economic conditions on the level of road mortality.