J. Rajaiah, Eesha Pendse, Sheril Anna Thomas, Shubh Agrawal, Tejas Shetty
{"title":"A Study on Forecasting Economic Convergence of India in Comparison to USA, China and Japan","authors":"J. Rajaiah, Eesha Pendse, Sheril Anna Thomas, Shubh Agrawal, Tejas Shetty","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3888583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888583","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to examine, compare and forecast the per capita GDP of India, the USA, China, and Japan for a period of ten years from 2020 to 2029. It studies the concept of economic convergence which states that the developing economies’ per capita income levels tend to move at a faster rate than that of developed economies. For forecasting, it uses the ARIMA approach. The ARIMA equation varies for each country chosen. The notation for China is ARIMA (2,2,0), for India it is ARIMA (0,2,1), for Japan it is ARIMA (2,1,2) and for USA it is ARIMA (1,1,2). This research paper has estimated the percentage change in GDP per capita for the above countries after every 10 years over the decades starting from 1979 till 2029 (Based on forecasted values of 2029). The research findings suggest that in the group of 4 countries that have been selected, there is a presence of economic convergence pattern, as, during the initial two decades from 1979 - 89 & 1989 -99, the GDP growth rate of the developed nations is much faster than the developing countries, whereas, after 1999, the GDP growth rate of India catches up with that of US and Japan. The GDP growth rates of India after 1999 are much faster as compared to the US & Japan. In the case of China, the catching-up effect takes place after 1989, as after that the GDP growth rate of China is much higher than the growth rates of the US and Japan and in both cases, these trends continue to exist even in 2029. The annual GDP growth rate of these countries according to our forecasted results from 2020 -2029 has also been predicted.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130353688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Elementary Mathematical Model for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)","authors":"Yasuhito Tanaka","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3882002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3882002","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, a school of economics called MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) has been attracting attention, but it has not been analyzed theoretically or mathematically. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the skeleton of the MMT argument, while maintaining the basics of the neoclassical microeconomic framework, such as utility maximization of consumers by means of utility functions and budget constraint, profit maximization of firms in monopolistic competition, and equilibrium of supply and demand of goods. Using a simple static model that includes economic growth due to technological progress, we will argue that: 1) a continuous budget deficit is necessary to maintain full employment when the economy is growing, and that this deficit does not have to be covered by future surpluses; 2) Inflation is caused when the actual budget deficit exceeds the level necessary and sufficient to maintain full employment. In order to avoid further inflation, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of budget deficit; 3) A shortfall in the budget deficit leads to recession and involuntary unemployment. To recover from this, a budget deficit that exceeds the level necessary to maintain full employment is required. However, since a continuous budget deficit is necessary after full employment is restored, the deficit created to overcome the recession does not need to be covered by future budget surpluses, nor should it be.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"163 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122200670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How much the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign can Help in the Economic Recovery? The Case of Chile","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3873182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3873182","url":null,"abstract":"This research proposes a deep evaluation in the COVID-19 vaccinations campaigns in the economic recovery;because the COVID-19 infected cases until now keep in a constant increment worldwide, it is encouraging to evaluate objectively the role of COVID-19 vaccinations campaigns in the fast recovery of the market in the short and long run. For this reason, we want to elaborate on different simulations to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 campaigns in different environments and time frameworks. This research's central objective is to evaluate how much the COVID-19 vaccinations campaigns impact the fast economic recovery according to a list of indicators presented in this research paper. We are interested in how massive vaccination campaigns can help to control COVID-19 and its positive impact on the economic recovery in different countries such as Chile. According to this research, we suggest incorporating a new indicator to evaluate the vaccination campaign's effectiveness from a general point of view.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121400521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Saleh, Saif S Alsowaidi, Shrabani Saha, Ghialy Yap
{"title":"Destination Competitiveness: The Perceptions of Foreign Tourists Visiting Qatar","authors":"A. Saleh, Saif S Alsowaidi, Shrabani Saha, Ghialy Yap","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3858560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3858560","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to develop an evidence-based integrated model for destination competitiveness and apply it to the case of Qatar, such that it could be used to identify relevant determinants and rank their contributions to tourism performance in Qatar based on survey data for foreign tourists’ perceptions of the country. Various statistical methods were used to categorize the relevant constraints and the key determinants of tourism performance in Qatar. The results reveal that the highest-ranked determinants concerned core resources, particularly heritage-based artistic and architectural features, historic sites, and traditional arts and culture. In contrast, natural resources—such as national parks, wildlife, and nature-based activities—were ranked relatively low as determinants. This paper presents fresh insights into the competitiveness of Qatari tourism from visitors’ perspectives, and this may inform strategies for improving the country’s level of tourism competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130085073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Health Care Luxury Good Hypothesis","authors":"Esmaeil Ebadi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3756031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3756031","url":null,"abstract":"A wide range of research has been developed in the empirical literature regarding income and price elasticities of health care expenditure (HCE). The results are mixed, as researchers employ different methodologies and data sources. The benefits of the panel data method, such as greater data variation, less collinearity, and more degrees of freedom, made it attractive among economists. However, the pooled mean group (PMG) method provides robust estimates compared to conventional methods, such as the mean group estimator and dynamic fixed-effects estimator. As such, this paper applies the PMG method to scrutinize the effect of income and price on U.S. health care consumption using a panel of 46 states. The income and price elasticities were found to be 0.85 and -0.48, respectively, which partially describes the recessionary decline in health care consumption following the Great Recession. In addition, the model reveals that the short-run income elasticity is smaller than the long-run. This confirms that U.S. health care consumption follows the permanent income hypothesis. Consequently, the short-run efficacy of public policies targeting HCE remains limited. The results of this paper suggest reconsidering and adjusting health care policies during a recession so as to avoid probable long-run adverse effects on HCE.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131341894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"COVID-19 Pandemic, Government Response and Corporate Investment","authors":"Khanh Hoang, Muhammad Arif, C. Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3747894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747894","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the impact of the US government response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including stringent social measures and economics support packages, on corporate investment. The empirical results show that the government response have a positive effect on corporate investment. The government response to the pandemic is not only influencing long-term investments, but also exhibits a positively significant impact on the short-term investments of the US firms. The interesting finding is that the effect of the government response on corporate investment varies cross-sectionally and is more pronounced on firms with a lower level of political risk. Further, corporate investment of firms with higher investment irreversibility react less positively to government’s policies during COVID-19. Our analyses provide fresh insights into the firms’ reaction to the government’s response to the pandemic and suggest that both social measures and economic support are vital to restoring corporate investment as well as economic recovery process.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114807192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A New Multidimensional Graphical Approaches for Mathematics","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3729848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3729848","url":null,"abstract":"This work presents the rationale of multidimensional coordinate systems as the most effective visual tool to understand the behavior of any natural phenomenon from a multidimensional perspective. The main motivation behind the creation of multidimensional coordinate systems is to propose an alternative type of graphical modeling and to develop new types of multidimensional graphs to facilitate the study of the sciences. In doing so, the mission of multidimensional coordinate systems is to offer scientists an alternative multidimensional a graphical modeling approach for research and for the teaching-learning process centered upon the evolution of any natural phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134015586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Uses of New Multidimensional Graphical Approaches in Macroeconomics and Microeconomics","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3729326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3729326","url":null,"abstract":"This E-book applies different multidimensional graphical models on macroeconomics and macroeconomics. The first chapter will give a short brief about each chapter in this E-book. Subsequently, the next twenty chapters are showing various applications from different multidimensional coordinate spaces offer by Econographicology.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114269837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The US Money Explosion of 2020, Monetarism and Inflation: Plagued by History?","authors":"R. Burdekin","doi":"10.4236/me.2020.1111126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2020.1111126","url":null,"abstract":"Although the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing \u0000of early 2020 was comparable in scale to 2008-2009, the implications for the \u0000growth of money in circulation and future inflationary pressures appear quite \u0000different. Absent the unprecedented surge in bank excess reserve ratios seen in \u00002008 and after, massive monetary base increases imply the possibility of a much \u0000larger, and potentially worrisome, increase in the money in circulation. Rising \u0000inflation expectations are implied by such phenomena as the surging demand for \u0000Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and record highs for gold prices during \u0000the summer of 2020. These trends lend some support to market participants \u0000evincing concern that the surging money growth is, in fact, a precursor to \u0000future inflation. Historical perspective on the 2020 situation is provided by \u0000data from the time of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu and available documentation of \u0000inflation following medieval and Roman-era pandemics. Indications of extra \u0000upward pressure on prices arising from pent-up spending after the epidemic has \u0000passed include the surge in bank loans in the aftermath of the 1918-1919 \u0000Spanish Flu pandemic.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129080750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Critical Comparison of Three Notions of Fractional Stochastic Dominance","authors":"Tiantian Mao, Ruodu Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3642983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642983","url":null,"abstract":"Two notions of fractional stochastic dominance are recently proposed by Muller et al. (2017) and Huang et al. (2020), respectively. Our main objective is to understand the comparative advantages of the two notions, as well as their suitability in different contexts, by establishing several new technical results. For a more comprehensive comparison, we further include a third natural notion of fractional stochastic dominance based on the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Among the three notions, it turns out that one can be seen as a logarithmic version of second-order stochastic dominance (SSD), another one can be seen as a power version of SSD, whereas there does not exist a transformation to associate the last one with SSD. We find that these notions of fractional stochastic dominance are naturally connected to five classes of risk measures, including Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, expectiles, entropic risk measures, and loss certainty equivalents. The three notions are further characterized in the contexts of the rank-dependent utility model and the cumulative prospect theory. We make some recommendations on which notion to use in specific situations, as they all have their own merits.","PeriodicalId":407431,"journal":{"name":"Claremont McKenna College Robert Day School of Economics & Finance Research Paper Series","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131373118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}