ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture最新文献

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International Wheat Price Responses to ENSO Shocks: Modelling Transmissions Using Smooth Transitions 国际小麦价格对ENSO冲击的反应:使用平滑过渡建模传输
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2014-08-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2477672
David Ubilava
{"title":"International Wheat Price Responses to ENSO Shocks: Modelling Transmissions Using Smooth Transitions","authors":"David Ubilava","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2477672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2477672","url":null,"abstract":"Climate anomalies affect agricultural production in different parts of the world and can impact price behavior of internationally traded commodities. This research examines the effect of a particular climate phenomenon, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on wheat prices from the major exporting regions. The study adopts a smooth transition modelling framework to addresses nonlinear dynamics and asymmetric price transmissions in response to the climate anomalies. Results suggest that a positive ENSO shock, i.e. El Nino, reduces wheat prices, while a negative ENSO shock, i.e. La Nina, increases wheat prices. The price changes vary across the export regions, but on average are within the three percent magnitude. The price increase due to La Nina is of a larger magnitude as compared to the price decrease due to El Nino. Moreover, price responses to ENSO shocks are more amplified (up to seven percent) during the La Nina regime, as compared to the El Nino regime. These findings are indicative of and consistent with the economics of grain price volatility and the theory of storage.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129708970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
How Do Natural Gas Prices Affect Electricity Consumers and the Environment? 天然气价格如何影响电力消费者和环境?
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2014-07-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2537833
Joshua Linn, Lucija A Muehlenbachs, Yushuang Wang
{"title":"How Do Natural Gas Prices Affect Electricity Consumers and the Environment?","authors":"Joshua Linn, Lucija A Muehlenbachs, Yushuang Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2537833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2537833","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2008 and 2012, the delivered price of natural gas to the U.S. power sector fell 60 percent. This paper addresses, in theory and in practice, the effects of this negative price shock on electricity consumers and the environment. We demonstrate with a simple model that the larger the effects of gas prices on consumer welfare, the smaller the effects on pollution emissions and the smaller the increase in profits of existing natural gas–fired generators. Using detailed data on electricity prices, fuel consumption, and fuel prices from 2001 to 2012, we confirm this hypothesis. Regions that experience greater reductions in pollution emissions experience smaller reductions in electricity prices and consumer welfare.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"77 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129795227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 44
Estimation of Productivity and Efficiency of Cotton Farmers: A Case Study of District Dera Ghazi Khan 棉农生产力与效益评估——以德拉加齐汗区为例
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2014-04-28 DOI: 10.22547/BER/6.2.4
A. Hameed, Ihtisham ul Haq Padda, A. Salam
{"title":"Estimation of Productivity and Efficiency of Cotton Farmers: A Case Study of District Dera Ghazi Khan","authors":"A. Hameed, Ihtisham ul Haq Padda, A. Salam","doi":"10.22547/BER/6.2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22547/BER/6.2.4","url":null,"abstract":"This study estimates total technical (TEcrs), pure technical (TEvrs), allocative (AE), and economic (EE) efficiencies of cotton growers in the district Dera Gazi Khan using data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. The study finds 0.67, 0.94, 0.57, 0.54 and 0.71 average values of the total technical, pure technical, allocative, economic, and scale efficiencies, respectively. The study also tries to investigate the determinants of technical inefficiency of cotton growers and the slacks of inputs. The results indicate that human capital, research and development, and easy access to markets are major determinants of technical efficiency. The output orientation analysis shows that production of cotton can be increased by 6 maunds (240kgs) per acre under present availability of resources. The slack estimates show that 43 percent cost of inputs is used extra and on average Rs.11, 833 per acre can be saved in this account without loss of output. This study suggests that government should make a strategy to improve irrigation system and provide trainings for optimal utilization of inputs, and ban agro-shops that do not have licenses","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131112698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Variance Risk in Commodity Markets 商品市场的差异风险
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2014-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2195691
Marcel Prokopczuk, L. Symeonidis, Chardin Wese Simen
{"title":"Variance Risk in Commodity Markets","authors":"Marcel Prokopczuk, L. Symeonidis, Chardin Wese Simen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2195691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2195691","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document comovements between the realized payoffs of commodity, equity and bond variance swaps. Similar results hold for expected variance swap payoffs. Furthermore, we show that both realized and expected commodity variance swap payoffs are distinct from the realized and expected commodity futures returns, indicating that variance risk is unspanned by commodity futures.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115927583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 62
Monetary Policies and Oil Price Determination: An Empirical Analysis 货币政策与油价决定:一个实证分析
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2014-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12021
Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary, N. Yoshino
{"title":"Monetary Policies and Oil Price Determination: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary, N. Yoshino","doi":"10.1111/opec.12021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12021","url":null,"abstract":"While the oil price shocks of 1970s can be explained by pure supply factors, starting in the 1980s oil prices increasingly began to come under a different type of pressure. Oil prices accelerated from about $35/barrel in 1981 to beyond $111/barrel in 2011. At the same time interest rates subsided from 16.7 per cent per annum to about 0.1. This paper explains how this long-term price increase was, in most cases, caused by expansionary monetary policies that heightened oil prices through interest rate channels. Aggressive monetary policies stimulated oil demand and blew up oil prices, a trend that led to slower economic growth. As for elasticities, the results described in this paper show that oil demand price elasticity is low value and unlike some earlier literature states, supply price elasticity is statistically significant. In last section, the results show that oil prices adjust instantly, declaring the existence of equilibrium in the oil market during the period from 1960 to 2011.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134124815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 54
Oil Prices, US Inflation, US Money Supply and the US Dollar 石油价格,美国通货膨胀,美国货币供应和美元
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12008
S. Azar
{"title":"Oil Prices, US Inflation, US Money Supply and the US Dollar","authors":"S. Azar","doi":"10.1111/opec.12008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12008","url":null,"abstract":"A central proposition in many macroeconomic models is price stickiness, while it is agreed that commodity prices are determined in auction markets, and are necessarily fully flexible. The overall price level is a weighted average of commodity prices and consumer prices. An exogenous increase in the money supply, keeping everything else constant, increases the overall price level proportionately. Because of stickiness of consumer prices, commodity prices overshoot the increase in the money supply. The purpose of this paper is to re‐examine the relations between the price of one specific commodity which is oil with US inflation, US money supply and the US dollar. One empirical fact is that during the sample period, global and US demand shocks have raised oil prices immediately while their effect on consumer prices was delayed. This overshooting of oil prices is expected to occur in the short run and to wane in the long run as consumer prices fully adjust. The overshooting of oil prices is the mirror image of the overshooting of the US dollar. This is true for two main reasons. One, both oil and the US dollar react in the same manner to money supply changes. Two, oil prices are quoted in US dollars and a depreciation of the US dollar is instantly compensated by a rise in the US price of oil. Additionally, the paper analyses and discusses the evidence on an apparent long run overshooting of oil prices and explains why it is just a statistical artefact that stems from the salient features of oil.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124422776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Long‐Run Relationship between Savings and Investment in Oil‐Exporting Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Gulf Arab States 石油出口发展中国家储蓄与投资的长期关系:以海湾阿拉伯国家为例
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12006
S. Basher, Stefano Fachin
{"title":"The Long‐Run Relationship between Savings and Investment in Oil‐Exporting Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Gulf Arab States","authors":"S. Basher, Stefano Fachin","doi":"10.1111/opec.12006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12006","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between national saving and investment over the long term is examined for six Gulf Arab oil-exporting developing countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. We show that, provided some large outliers are properly accounted for, long-run equilibrium relationships between saving and investment (both total and fixed) exist in these countries. Since these countries have typically large current account surpluses such relationships cannot be explained by standard arguments. Our hypothesis is that the response of investment to saving largely depends on domestic absorptive capacity.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115999708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Modeling the Saudi Energy Economy and Its Administered Components: The KAPSARC Energy Model 沙特能源经济及其管理组件建模:KAPSARC能源模型
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2013-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2343342
Walid Matar, F. Murphy, Axel Pierru, B. Rioux
{"title":"Modeling the Saudi Energy Economy and Its Administered Components: The KAPSARC Energy Model","authors":"Walid Matar, F. Murphy, Axel Pierru, B. Rioux","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2343342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2343342","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the KAPSARC energy model, which we developed to take an integrated view of the energy issues faced by Saudi Arabia. These issues result from growing internal energy demand that is cutting into the country’s ability to export oil, constrained supplies of natural gas that affect the ability of the country to use gas as an economic development tool, and a domestic energy economy that largely operates with prices set by the government and not markets. The model is formulated as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) that allows us to capture the non-market features resulting in prices that are different from marginal costs. The model is novel in two ways: (i) it is the first integrated, equilibrium, energy model of Saudi Arabia and it captures government interventions that permeate economies outside the OECD; (ii) its design and component organization solve critical model management issues. In addition to the detailed description of the model, the paper provides an overview of the Saudi energy economy, discusses issues in designing a multi-sector energy model, and covers how the model is organized from a model management perspective.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127839305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature 我们能从天气中学到什么?新的气候经济文献
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.1257/JEL.52.3.740
Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, B. Olken
{"title":"What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature","authors":"Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, B. Olken","doi":"10.1257/JEL.52.3.740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/JEL.52.3.740","url":null,"abstract":"A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes. These studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth among other outcomes. By harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit, these studies help credibly identify (i) the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy, (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations, and (iii) non-linear effects of weather variables. This paper reviews the new literature with two purposes. First, we summarize recent work, providing a guide to its methodologies, data sets, and findings. Second, we consider applications of the new literature, including insights for the \"damage function\" within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124486339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1534
Modifying the Libyan Fiscal Regime to Optimise its Oil Reserves and Attract More Foreign Capital Part 2: Application to Project in Libya 修改利比亚财政制度以优化其石油储备并吸引更多外国资本。第二部分:在利比亚项目中的应用
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12001
Saad Balhasan, B. Towler, J. Miskimins
{"title":"Modifying the Libyan Fiscal Regime to Optimise its Oil Reserves and Attract More Foreign Capital Part 2: Application to Project in Libya","authors":"Saad Balhasan, B. Towler, J. Miskimins","doi":"10.1111/opec.12001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends the analysis of our proposed modification to the first model of Libyan Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement (LEPSA I) to field applications. Four decision‐making models are coded in a spreadsheet program to estimate profitability indicators for two development scenarios. These scenarios are primary and secondary recovery methods with water injection and enhanced oil recovery by injecting carbon dioxide. The paper concludes that the economic profit for the foreign investor (second party) under LEPSA I was improved compared with EPSA IV. Also, Libya increased its oil reserves with a reasonable decrease of its production share. Moreover, the results showed that the profit indicators under the current production shares (cost recovery) of the fourth model of Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement (EPSA IV) were not favourable to the second party. Because of that, the second party would not be motivated to make a decision to invest any money for an oil development projects in Libya. Finally, the paper investigates how EPSA IV should be redesigned to maximise the Libyan National Oil Corporation (first party) oil reserves and give more attention to the economic objectives of the second party.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124968865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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