{"title":"Frequency Connectedness and Cross-quantile Dependence Between Green Bond and Green Equity Markets","authors":"L. Pham","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3695934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3695934","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper aims at investigating the frequency connectedness and cross-quantile dependence between green bond and green equity markets. By decomposing green bond and green equity time series data into different frequency bands, we first identify how the connectedness between green bond and green equity varies between the short-term, medium-term and long-term investment horizons. Next, we employ a cross-quantilogram framework to investigate the cross-quantile dependence between green bond and green equity and to capture the spillovers between these markets across a wide range of market conditions. Our empirical results suggest that after controlling for movements in the general stock, energy and fixed-income markets, the dependence between green bond and green equity during normal market conditions is relatively small. On the other hand, green bond and green equity are more connected during extreme market movements, where they boom and bust together. We also find that across all market conditions, the spillover effects between green bond and green equity are short-lived, as the degree of connectedness dissipates in the medium- and long-term investment horizons. Our results have important implications for environmentally conscious investors and policymakers.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129072914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Negative Spillovers of New Technologies: The Unequal Burden of Congestion Created by Autonomous Vehicles","authors":"Leslie A. Martin, Zan Fairweather","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3660677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660677","url":null,"abstract":"Autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies lower the private cost of driving, leading to induced demand for road use at peak times. Because adoption is likely to skew towards higher-income commuters, we show that the congestion externalities exacerbated by adoption are likely to be experienced disproportionately by lower-income drivers. Unless proactive policies like congestion pricing or improved access to public transit or ride-share are simultaneously implemented, autonomous vehicles are likely to make lower-income commuters actively worse off in congested cities where many higher-income commuters currently take public transit.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133989862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giorgio Baldassarri Höger von Högersthal, A. Lui, H. Tomičić, Luka Vidovič
{"title":"Carbon Pricing Paths to a Greener Future, and Potential Roadblocks to Public Companies’ Creditworthiness","authors":"Giorgio Baldassarri Höger von Högersthal, A. Lui, H. Tomičić, Luka Vidovič","doi":"10.21314/jem.2020.205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/jem.2020.205","url":null,"abstract":"As of April 23, 2019, 185 countries had ratified the 2015 Paris Agreement, committing to combating climate change and intensifying the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low-carbon future. One of the primary policy tools contemplated by governments was the introduction of (or increase in) a carbon tax to penalize firms producing greenhouse gas emissions, potentially impacting their financial performance and affecting their creditworthiness. Financial regulators in several jurisdictions plan to include climate-linked scenarios in the annual bank stress testing exercise. In this paper, we introduce a valuation-based approach to estimate how energy transition risk may impact the creditworthiness of public companies globally within the next thirty years. Leveraging company-specific carbon dioxide emissions, country- and industry-specific carbon tax scenarios and a market-driven probability of default model covering approximately 34 000 companies globally, we perform an empirical analysis incorporating both transition-related risks and opportunities. Our findings suggest that the utilities, materials, energy and consumer staples sectors may be the most default-prone industries over a fast transition. In addition, several large-revenue companies in these sectors may default on their debt obligations over the next thirty years, potentially inducing important ripple effects in the economy, at both a national and a global level.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128307444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Energy Tax Exemptions and Industrial Production","authors":"Andreas Gerster, S. Lamp","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3841576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3841576","url":null,"abstract":"Unilateral climate policies are often accompanied by exemptions for energy-intensive and trade-exposed industrial firms to avoid leakage from regulated to unregulated jurisdictions. This paper investigates the impact of a large electricity tax exemption on production levels, employment, and input choices in the German manufacturing industry. For two different policy designs, we show that exempted plants significantly increase their electricity use. This effect is considerably larger under a notched exemption policy, where passing an eligibility threshold yields infra-marginal benefits, compared to a revised policy where these benefits have been largely removed. We detect no significant impact of the exemptions on production levels, export shares, and employment. Our results cast doubt on the necessity of energy tax exemptions to retain domestic production and caution against the use of notched exemption policies.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115156076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regularized Partially Functional Autoregressive Model","authors":"Ying Chen, Xiaofei Xu, T. Koch, Ge Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3482262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3482262","url":null,"abstract":"Functional time series and high-dimensional scalar predictors frequently arise in \u0000a wide range of modern economic and business applications, which require statistical \u0000models that can simultaneously handle the temporal and causal dependence that are \u0000prevalent in large sets of mixed-type data. We propose a partially functional autoregressive \u0000model (pFAR) to describe the dynamic evolution of the serially correlated \u0000functional response on its own lagged values and the causal relation with a large \u0000amount of exogenous scalar predictors. Our estimation is conducted by facilitating \u0000the sieve method and a two-layer sparsity assumption that is imposed on groups \u0000and elements. In the high-dimensional setting, the sparse structure is completely \u0000unknown and it is identified entirely data-driven with a forward-looking criterion. In \u0000addition, asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Extensive simulation \u0000studies show that the pFAR model accurately identifies the sparse structure \u0000with a convincing and stable predictive performance. The power of the pFAR model \u0000is further confirmed by real data analysis of day-ahead gas demand and supply curve \u0000predictions of multiple nodes in the German natural gas transmission network with different functions. Given the historical values of the daily curves and 85 scalar predictors, \u0000the model detects several essential categories of mixed-type predictors with \u0000insightful economic interpretation. It also provides appealing out-of-sample forecast \u0000accuracy when compared to a number of popular alternative models.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131817536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rıza Demirer, Roman Ferrer Lapeña, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
{"title":"Oil Price Shocks, Global Financial Markets and Their Connectedness","authors":"Rıza Demirer, Roman Ferrer Lapeña, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3394320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3394320","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends the literature on the relationship between oil price shocks and financial markets by examining the effect of oil shocks on the sovereign bond markets of a large number of advanced and emerging economies and exploring the impact of oil shocks on the degree of connectedness among international financial markets. We show that the effect of oil price shocks is not only limited to stock market returns, but also extends to bond markets, even after controlling for discount rate shocks as well as aggregate capital market effects. Unlike the case for stock markets, the effect on sovereign bonds is found to be rather heterogeneous (in terms of size and sign) and primarily driven by demand related shocks. We also show that oil price shocks serve as a driver of connectedness patterns across global financial markets, although the effect on connectedness depends on the nature of the oil market shock and the economic characteristics of the countries. Overall, the findings highlight the role of crude oil as a driver of not only of return dynamics in global stock and bond markets, but also of global financial connectedness patterns.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125203754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stated Willingness to Pay for Residential Renewable Electricity and Green Jobs in Aguascalientes, Mexico","authors":"Adan L. Martinez-Cruz, H. Núñez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3577229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3577229","url":null,"abstract":"Via a discrete choice experiment, this paper documents that residential electricity consumers in Aguascalientes, Mexico, are willing to pay a premium for renewable energies as well as for the creation of green jobs. These results are particularly timely because the current Federal administration has redirected priorities from an energy transition that was expected to boost renewable energies to the pursuing of energy sovereignty. Concerns regarding this prioritization have been raised by national and international stakeholders due to its potential economic inefficiency and its implications for the achievement of climate change goals. These concerns have only intensified as discussions begin on how Mexico should face the post-coronavirus recession. This paper’s findings open the door to discuss whether a combination of a just energy transition together with the boosting of renewable energies should be part of a strategy to reach energy sovereignty at the same time that Mexico deals with a post-coronavirus world.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133729534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carlos David Cardona-Arenas, Héctor Mauricio Serna-Gómez
{"title":"COVID-19 and Oil Prices: Effects on the Colombian Peso Exchange Rate","authors":"Carlos David Cardona-Arenas, Héctor Mauricio Serna-Gómez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3567942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567942","url":null,"abstract":"The present study aims to analyze the effect of COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) on the Colombian peso market exchange rate between February 16, and March 14, 2020. This period was selected because therein, the pandemic expanded toward South America and the first case was diagnosed in Colombia. Also, during the same period, a shock was observed in the market representative exchange rate. To verify this effect, a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), without arbitrary restrictions, was developed. This was done, given that there is insufficient evidence to presume a causal relationship between the Colombian exchange rate and 2019-nCoV, and between 2019-nCoV and oil prices. Among the principal results is that the Colombian peso depreciation process against the dollar, during said period, is explained by a mixed effect between COVID-19 and oil prices, with greater ease of explanation of the variation of COVID-19 than oil prices. This highlights the short-term effect of the pandemic media coverage on the Colombian economy.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128437805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Refunded Emission Payments Scheme – A Cost-Efficient and Politically Acceptable Instrument for Reduction of NOx-Emissions?","authors":"Arild Heimvik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3567091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567091","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the effectiveness of a refunded emission payments (REP) scheme in achieving a specific target path of NOx-emission reductions. A REP scheme levies a charge on emissions and refunds the collected funds back to the emitting firms. REP schemes have been highlighted as a remedy to some concerns about standard emission taxes. The purpose of a REP scheme, however, is to achieve effective emission reductions. We examine two REP designs in this paper and analyze their incentives for emission mitigation at the firm level, with heterogenous firms. In the first design, refunds are given to firms based on their emission cuts. The second design gives refunds based on output shares of the emitting firms. Results show that while both designs can achieve the specific target path, only refunding based on emission-reductions is cost-efficient. The two designs target different objectives and hence, provide different mitigation incentives, and result in different distributional outcomes. On the other hand, neither design raises governmental revenue, nor do they strictly adhere to the polluter-pays-principle. However, a REP scheme has qualities that should make it appealing to regulators, especially if an effective emission tax is unfeasible.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116870766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bitcoin-Energy Markets Interrelationships - New Evidence","authors":"S. Corbet, B. Lucey, L. Yarovaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3565085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565085","url":null,"abstract":"The annual electricity consumption of cryptocurrency transactions has grown substantially in recent years, partially driven by the increasing difficulty in mining, but also driven by the large number of new market participants that have been attracted by the elevated prices of this developing financial asset. Total carbon production from mining now likely exceeds that generated by individual developed nations. This is now a prevailing and accepted feature in cryptocurrency markets, however unsustainable it may be. This paper investigates as to how Bitcoin's price volatility and the underlying dynamics of cryptocurrency mining characteristics affect underlying energy markets and utilities companies. Further analysis of potential side-effects within the market for Exchange Traded Funds are considered. The results show a sustained and significant influence of cryptocurrency energy-usage on the performance of some companies in the energy sector as separated by jurisdiction, emphasising the importance of further assessment of environmental impacts of cryptocurrency growth. Robustness testing presents evidence that dynamic correlations peaked during the sharp Bitcoin price appreciation of late-2017 as investors re-evaluated how this increased energy usage would influence the profitability of utility companies.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115219961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}