{"title":"Proactive Service Recovery in Emergency Departments: A Hybrid Modelling Approach using Forecasting and Real-Time Simulation","authors":"A. Harper, N. Mustafee","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322892","url":null,"abstract":"This work in progress is an application of a hybrid modelling (HM) approach for short-term decision support in urgent and emergency healthcare. It uses seasonal ARIMA time-series forecasting to predict emergency department (ED) overcrowding in a near-future moving window (1-4 hours) using data downloaded from a digital platform (NHSquicker). NHSquicker delivers near real-time wait times from multiple centres of urgent care in the South-West of England. Alongside historical distributions, this near real-time data is used to populate an ED discrete event simulation model. The ARIMA forecasts trigger real-time simulation experimentation of ED scenarios including proactive diversion of low-acuity patients to alternative facilities in the urgent care network.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"514 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123075282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrea Piccione, Matteo Principe, Alessandro Pellegrini, F. Quaglia
{"title":"An Agent-Based Simulation API for Speculative PDES Runtime Environments","authors":"Andrea Piccione, Matteo Principe, Alessandro Pellegrini, F. Quaglia","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322890","url":null,"abstract":"Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) is an effective paradigm to model systems exhibiting complex interactions, also with the goal of studying the emergent behavior of these systems. While ABMS has been effectively used in many disciplines, many successful models are still run only sequentially. Relying on simple and easy-to-use languages such as NetLogo limits the possibility to benefit from more effective runtime paradigms, such as speculative Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES). In this paper, we discuss a semantically-rich API allowing to implement Agent-Based Models in a simple and effective way. We also describe the critical points which should be taken into account to implement this API in a speculative PDES environment, to scale up simulations on distributed massively-parallel clusters. We present an experimental assessment showing how our proposal allows to implement complicated interactions with a reduced complexity, while delivering a non-negligible performance increase.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126122889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Quang Anh Pham Nguyen, Philipp Andelfinger, Wentong Cai, A. Knoll
{"title":"Transitioning Spiking Neural Network Simulators to Heterogeneous Hardware","authors":"Quang Anh Pham Nguyen, Philipp Andelfinger, Wentong Cai, A. Knoll","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322893","url":null,"abstract":"Spiking neural networks (SNN) are among the most computationally intensive types of simulation models, with node counts on the order of up to 10^11. Currently, there is intensive research into hardware platforms suitable to support large-scale SNN simulations, whereas several of the most widely used simulators still rely purely on the execution on CPUs. Enabling the execution of these established simulators on heterogeneous hardware allows new studies to exploit the many-core hardware prevalent in modern supercomputing environments, while still being able to reproduce and compare with results from a vast body of existing literature. In this paper, we propose a transition approach for CPU-based SNN simulators to enable the execution on heterogeneous hardware (e.g., CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs) with only limited modifications to an existing simulator code base, and without changes to model code. Our approach relies on manual porting of a small number of core simulator functionalities as found in common SNN simulators, whereas unmodified model code is analyzed and transformed automatically. We apply our approach to the well-known simulator NEST and make a version executable on heterogeneous hardware available to the community. Our measurements show that at full utilization, a single GPU achieves the performance of about 9 CPU cores.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126118752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Neil McGlohon, Noah Wolfe, M. Mubarak, C. Carothers
{"title":"Fit Fly: A Case Study on Interconnect Innovation through Parallel Simulation","authors":"Neil McGlohon, Noah Wolfe, M. Mubarak, C. Carothers","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3325515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3325515","url":null,"abstract":"To meet the demand for exascale-level performance from high-performance computing (HPC) interconnects, many system architects are turning to simulation results for accurate and reliable predictions of the performance of prospective technologies. Testing full-scale networks with a variety of benchmarking tools, including synthetic workloads and application traces, can give crucial insight into what ideas are most promising without needing to physically construct a test network. While flexible, however, this approach is extremely compute time intensive. We address this time complexity challenge through the use of large-scale, optimistic parallel simulation that ultimately leads to faster HPC network architecture innovations. In this paper we demonstrate this innovation capability through a real-world network design case study. Specifically, we have simulated and compared four extreme-scale interconnects: Dragonfly, Megafly, Slim Fly, and a new dual-rail-dual-plane variation of the Slim Fly network topology. We present this new variant of Slim Fly, dubbed Fit Fly, to show how interconnect innovation and evaluation---beyond what is possible through analytic methods---can be achieved through parallel simulation. We validate and compare the model with various network designs using the CODES interconnect simulation framework. By running large-scale simulations in a parallel environment, we are able to quickly generate reliable performance results that can help network designers break ground on the next generation of high-performance network designs.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123363269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Virtual-Time-Accelerated Emulation for Blockchain Network and Application Evaluation","authors":"Xiaoliang Wu, Jiaqi Yan, Dong Jin","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322889","url":null,"abstract":"Blockchain technologies are in the ascendant of transforming the ways we manage contracts, make transactions, and manifest own- ership of property. The trend calls for a realistic testing and evalua- tion platform for blockchain applications and systems. We present Minichain, a container-based emulator that allows testing proof- of-work-based blockchains on a commodity computer. Minichain contains a realistic and configurable network environment, which is missing in today's blockchain testbeds. This unique feature enables us to evaluate the impact of network events (e.g., cyber-attacks) and conditions (e.g., congested or failed links) on blockchain appli- cations. Meanwhile, Minichain allows the direct execution of un- modified application code in the containers for fidelity, and utilizes the virtual time technique to speed up experiments and improve the system scale that one can accurately emulate. In particular, we mathematically analyze the convergence of the proof-of-work- based consensus algorithm to show the effectiveness of virtual time. We evaluate the performance of Minichain across both net- work layer and application layer, and demonstrate its usability by emulating a selfish mining attack initiated from the network layer","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"404 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131527854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Philippe J. Giabbanelli, M. Fattoruso, Max L. Norman
{"title":"CoFluences","authors":"Philippe J. Giabbanelli, M. Fattoruso, Max L. Norman","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322887","url":null,"abstract":"Social influences are key drivers of many human behaviors, and have been the focus of an abundance of discrete simulation models. In participatory modeling, the emphasis is on developing models in an intuitive and transparent manner. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) provides such an intuitive and transparent process, but it can only simulate the thinking of one entity rather than how entities influence each other. Hybrid architectures based on FCM and Agent Based Modeling (ABM) can bridge this gap, but current software implementing these architectures either restricted the models (e.g., limiting agent heterogeneity by requiring that they all follow the same rules) or required extensive coding (which participatory modeling avoids). In this paper, we contribute to software development by presenting CoFluences, and to the theory of modeling and simulation by better characterizing hybrid ABM/FCM architectures. CoFluences is the first software to develop and simulate hybrid ABM/FCM models in a participatory setting, and where agents can follow different rules. Although we take a User-Centered Design approach to develop CoFluences, a comprehensive usability study will be necessary to fully evaluate it in context. In addition, the growing interest in developing simulation software involving FCM will call for more standardization, and for a better understanding of how an FCM behaves in a hybrid simulation.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123689135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Caitlin J. Ross, Noah Wolfe, Mark Plagge, C. Carothers, M. Mubarak, R. Ross
{"title":"Using Scientific Visualization Techniques to Visualize Parallel Network Simulations","authors":"Caitlin J. Ross, Noah Wolfe, Mark Plagge, C. Carothers, M. Mubarak, R. Ross","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322888","url":null,"abstract":"Although parallel discrete event simulation has been used to simulate and study the performance of various network topologies, little effort has been spent on visualizing the time series data that result from these simulations. Visualization can be useful in multiple aspects of simulation, from debugging and validating models to gaining deeper insights from the data. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in developing 3-dimensional animations of data from optimistic parallel discrete event simulations. The visualizations are developed by using VTK and ParaView, and examples are shown on fat-tree and dragonfly network models using the ROSS simulator. We also discuss our plans for future work with the visualizations and their integration into an in situ analysis and visualization system being currently developed.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133294245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher Hannon, Jiaqi Yan, Yuan-An Liu, Dong Jin
{"title":"A Distributed Virtual Time System on Embedded Linux for Evaluating Cyber-Physical Systems","authors":"Christopher Hannon, Jiaqi Yan, Yuan-An Liu, Dong Jin","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322895","url":null,"abstract":"Cyber-physical systems have a cyber presence, collecting and transmitting data, while also collecting information and modifying the physical surrounding world. In order to evaluate the cyber-security of cyber-physical systems, simulation and modeling is a tool often used. In this work, we develop a distributed virtual time system that enables the synchronization of virtual clocks between physical machines enabling a high fidelity simulation based testing platform. The platform combines physical computing and networking hardware for the cyber presence, while allowing for offline simulation and computation of the physical world. By incorporating virtual clocks into distributed embedded Linux devices, the testbed creates the opportunity to interrupt real and emulated cyber-physical applications to inject offline simulated data values. The ability to run real applications and being able to inject simulated data temporally transparent to the running process allows for high fidelity experimentation. Distributed virtual time enables processes and their clocks to be paused, resumed, and dilated across embedded Linux devices through the use of hardware interrupts and a common kernel module. By interconnecting the embedded devices' general purpose IO pins, they can coordinate and synchronize through a distributed virtual time kernel module with low overhead, under 50 microseconds for 8 processes across 4 embedded Linux devices.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125094848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Human Temporal Dynamics in Agent-Based Simulations","authors":"James Flamino, Weike Dai, B. Szymanski","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322885","url":null,"abstract":"Time-based habitual behavior is exhibited in humans globally. Given that sleep has such an innate influence on our daily activities, modeling the patterns of the sleep cycle in order to understand the extent of its impact allows us to also capture stable behavioral features that can be utilized for predictive measures. In this paper we show that patterns of temporal preference are consistent and resilient across users of several real-world datasets. Furthermore, we integrate those patterns into large-scale agent-based models to simulate the activity of users in the involved datasets to validate predictive accuracy. Following simulations reveal that incorporating clustering features based on time-based behavior into agent-based models not only result in a significant decrease in computational overhead, but also result in predictive accuracy comparable to the baseline models.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115346786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Giabbanelli, Cole Freeman, Joshua A. Devita, Nicholas Rosso, Z. Brumme
{"title":"Mechanisms for Cell-to-cell and Cell-free Spread of HIV-1 in Cellular Automata Models","authors":"P. Giabbanelli, Cole Freeman, Joshua A. Devita, Nicholas Rosso, Z. Brumme","doi":"10.1145/3316480.3322886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3316480.3322886","url":null,"abstract":"Several discrete simulation models have been created to study the spread of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) within a human body. This is motivated both by the prevalence of the virus, and by the possibility of asking questions in simulations that would be unethical to test in trials. Among discrete simulation techniques, cellular automata (CA) have been particularly used in HIV-1 research. CA commonly assume that a cell is almost exclusively infected by neighboring cells (i.e., cell-to-cell transmission), and that more distal cells (i.e., cell-free transmission) have an extremely small probability to transmit the disease. The mechanisms are more nuanced in recent biological research, suggesting that cell-to-cell transmission may account for about 60% of all transmissions. We show that a representative sample of five previously validated CA models of HIV-1 can all be altered (by changing neighborhood structures and infection probabilities) to produce a realistic share of cell-to-cell and cell-free viral transmissions. Increasing the realism for modes of transmission, however, has mixed consequences on preserving the models' validity: their predictions at 600 weeks are generally unchanged, but viral dynamics are markedly different. We offer several suggestions to create CA models of HIV-1 with realistic infections and plausible viral dynamics.","PeriodicalId":398793,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2019 ACM SIGSIM Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation","volume":"158 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124712066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}